A world in chaos--and the Balkans ready to bring on the heat?
The first half of March has had plenty of politics, intrigue and even spy games—and yes, the narco trade, which permeates the entire European continent, wars be damned.
As if there are not plenty of wars to damn us all.
But this week we’re going to focus on the Balkans, as there is much afoot—all of it troubling—and by summer…
Things may get interesting indeed.
Albania
But first let's briefly digress, as the top story in this week’s post does indeed pull well beyond the Balkans, and although the focus of today’s blog is actually not the narco trade, this one was just too juicy to pass up. Think a Swedish heist exposing the cocaine game from Costa Rica to Malmo, Sweden, while ensnaring a wide variety of smugglers, students, fixers and thieves of all makes and nationalities. The twist? This time a big time play culminated in an Albanian narco gang hit by a mysterious rival gang (yes, in Sweden) and then the entire lot leaving packs of cocaine strewn all over the street with cops rushing to the scene.
But this was no mere “incident.” Police found more than EUR 23 mln in cocaine on the street and in the apartment that was hit.
But let’s give credit where credit is due, as this story, which is honestly a helluva read, was broken by Balkan Insight, and you can check it out here:
https://balkaninsight.com/2026/03/16/major-cocaine-heist-reveals-albanian-links-to-swedish-drug-trade/bi/
And read it you should. For, as noted by the article, it involves “criminals from Albania, Sweden, Norway, Belarus, Turkey, Bosnia, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium.”
And even in the world of narco crime you do not routinely come across villains like “Jonny Weed,” or the mysterious Bosnian-Dane nicknamed…
The Angel of Death.
Nope not kidding. Check it out.
Bulgaria/Serbia/Albania and… well, more on Serbia
But now back to the subject: The Balkans are restless, friends. Which is kind of the norm as Europe creakily rolls into Spring, and as we can all anticipate warmer weather and potentially a very hot (and possibly violent) summer.
First, and ironically this is a bit of a side note, Bulgaria is facing, yes, another run at elections. If my count is right (and honestly, I’m not completely sure), this April 19 and Bulgaria will see its eighth parliamentary election in seven years. And yes, the leader is again that the greatest Teflon party of all time…
GERB. Yes, the GERB of equally Teflon-coated and multi-time Prime Minister Boyko Borissov.
But here is where it gets interesting… No less than the US sanctioned (and let’s just say highly, highly controversial) Delyan Peevski happens to have Borissov’s back, having long since taken over (or maybe better described as “pushed aside”) the long-time semi-behind-the-scenes leader of the Turkish-minority, DPS, Ahmed Dogan, in order to forge his own way with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms-New Beginnings (DPS-NN) party…
Or maybe the dynamic is changing. Maybe Borissov will soon (or already) has been forced…
To have Peevski’s back.
At any rate, a coalition is in the works, and paradoxically, this may be the only chance for Bulgaria’s fractured political scene to actually form a working government.
But if this coalition of convenience comes to fruition, will it last?
Especially considering that this is the same Peevski that practically went to war with GERB in the past (again and again and again).
Wouldn’t count on it.
But wait… there is a twist! And for once, maybe Bulgaria will see a change in the political winds (but to what effect remains in question).
For (and this is not the norm in CEE or SEE), the former president of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, has proven himself a slick political player, having put together seemingly out of nowhere a three-party coalition with the moniker “Progressive Bulgaria.”
And, according to Reuters, that coalition has a chance to grab up to 30 percent of the vote.
!!!
For those who do not know much about Radev, this is the former major general in the Bulgarian Air Force, who in 2016 backed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party became president—and then proceeded to become a thorn in the side of GERB as president, berating the party for high levels of corruption up until his early resignation that took effect in January of this year.
Hmmm. Well, if only were so simple. The full story of the Radev presidency would make a good book (or movie), but here are a few of the more exciting points that do highlight his willingness to take on all comers.
- Back in 2018 Radev vetoed the acquisition of F-16s, claiming that the planes had been downgraded and were simply too expensive.
- Radev is no fan of Borissov. He’s claimed that Borissov “permits” corruption, and Borissov has accused Radev of sabotaging the government. On this point Radev did all he could to prevent the highly controversial Ivan Geshev from being appointed to chief prosecutor, taking on the Supreme Judicial Council (and GERB) and Geshev himself. This resulted in Geshev releasing a wiretap of Radev allegedly discussing his involvement in crime. Radev then claimed that not only Geshev was under the control of GERB, but also the police and secret service—and Borissov then had to defend himself, claiming that he did not order the wiretap.
- In 2020 Radev “withdrew confidence” in the government, and accused Borissov of running the country. Both Radev and Borissov battled over COVID strategy, with Borissov calling Radev a “dirty old hag of a mother-in-law,” but Radev did rather put his foot in it by attending a forum in Estonia, despite having a positive COVID-19 result.
- In the summer of 2020 a mysterious photo appeared with Borissov partially undressed on a bed, with the pic also including a pistol and stacks of euros. Borissov said the photo was manipulated, but also that Radev had “flown a drone” to his home to take the photo.
- By July of 2020 Geshev had sent officers to detain Radev’s advisors. Radev called the GERB crew a “mafia,” and protests erupted. Shortly afterward, a caretaker government took over under Secretary of Defense Stefan Yanev… and by July Bulgaria held new elections. GERB then accused Radev of using the cabinet as a “pre-election” move (sensing that yes, the president had other aspirations), with Radev stating essentially… “hey, at least Yanev cut down on vote buying.”
- After Radev returned for a second term—and after still more elections in November 2021—a government that included members from the previous caretaker government—Radev went to war with them too, accusing the Kiril Petkov administration of mirroring Borrisov and then becoming highly critical when Petkov generally supported (or was open) to sanctions against Russia and the sending of lethal aid once the war erupted in Ukraine.
- Other government came and went, and to his credit, Radev gave them all a hard time (and curiously, was sometimes accused of secretly working with GERB or aiding other parties behind the scenes), but soon Radev also came into a sharp conflict with the aforementioned (and never to be underestimated) Peevski. First, he advocated for Peevski to basically be run out of politics (although he was hardly alone here), but Peevski came back implying that the death of two pilots during a crash at the Graf Ignatievo Air Base was de facto on Radev’s head. And interestingly, GERB attempted to blame Radev for “technically deficient” F-16 fighters that were bought… during GERB’s reign despite Radev’s attempt to veto the buy in the first place.
Now what happens if somehow Radev wins? Will this usher in a new period of Bulgarian political stability?
Hmmm. Maybe. But again, Radev is against sanctions on Russia, is not exactly EU-friendly with regard to the future of North Macedonia (or the euro) and he has also bickered (sometimes a bit harshly) with the government of Turkey.
And don’t underestimate the wiles of both Peevski and Borissov along the way.
But let’s talk Serbia…
But we’ll get back to Bulgaria in a moment. Let’ s now (finally) turn to Serbia. Which once again leapt into Balkan headlines, chiefly when Croatian President Zoran Milanovic noted the country is aggressively “arming up” with Chinese CM-400 supersonic ballistic missiles, as well as with Israeli weapons that the president claimed are targeting Croatia, Albanian and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
And it’s not just Croatia that is concerned, as others in the region have taken notice—primarily because Serbia is arming up, with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic claiming that 1) a Russian-EU war is coming and 2) Serbia will very possibly be attacked by not only Croatia, but also… Albania and Kosovo.
And Bulgaria.
!!!
A country that Vucic will join what is in essence a Croatian-Greater Albanian Alliance, which at first glance frankly seems a bit absurd.
Almost. But we’ll get to that in a moment.
But in the opinion of Vucic, whether or not Bulgaria does join the above, it is bound to pounce on North Macedonia, which not only irritates Serbia to no end, but which has somehow motivated Vucic to nurture still closer ties with Hungary--while also promising to take the Serbian military to a historic level of size, readiness (and possibly belligerence).
And here is where it gets truly interesting. Albania and Kosovo did actually sign an joint-defense agreement with Croatia almost exactly one year ago, and Bulgaria does constantly bicker with North Macedonia (and Serbia has long believed it has designs on the western part of Serbia as well. And Serbia has repeatedly come close to blows with Kosovo over the Serbian enclave in North Kosovo, which is indeed constantly harassed by the ethnic Albanian dominated Kosovo government under Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti.
Then there is the fact that Hungary and Slovakia are tight, essentially pro-Russian (and definitely anti-Ukrainian, especially since oil through the Druzbha Pipeline to both countries has been cut, and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has put the blame squarely on Ukraine—while also demanding that Ukraine repair the pipeline and get the oil moving again.
Now as a quick aside, what seems to be lost on Orban is that the pipeline took a hit… due to Russian strikes. But details, details. Blaming Ukraine may be his only hope to remain in powers so you go with what you know. This also includes blocking EUR 90 bln in aid, while also essentially hijacking USD 40 mln worth of gold and cash (although some estimates have put the tally as high as USD 82 mln) that was in transit across Hungary (and briefly detaining bank employees along the way).
No worries. The EU’s reaction has been swift and typical. The European Council’s president, Antonio Acosta, has written a letter. To Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In this letter Acosta promised the EU will offer all necessary technical support to repair the pipeline.
Yeah, that should do it.
Everything should be just dandy now.
And here’s the letter to prove it:
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/1qnj10db/ares-2026-2829975-pec-and-pcom-letter-to-the-president-of-ukraine.pdf
But hey, that’s not all. There are wild cards all over, including Ukraine’s new drone tactics; Ukraine’s surprisingly effective counteroffensive to pre-empt a spring Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia; the war between the US and Iran; the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz; the war of words between US President Donald Trump and… erm… NATO; the fact that yes, Russia is beginning to crack (and would much quicker had oil sanctions remained in place), and finally, Iran’s threat to hit Romania (and also Ukraine) over a US airbase there.
Dang.
If that doesn’t move the doomsday clock a minute closer to midnight, I don’t know what should.
Ah, right, yes. Back to Serbia and the Balkans as a whole. Let’s just say that in the Balkans (especially in Kosovo) once it gets hot, things get dicey.
And with the year 2026 is forecast to be among the four warmest years on record globally, with temperatures over 1.4°C above pre-industrial level…
And with (at least in Serbia’s mind) a Croatia-Kosovo-Albania-Bulgaria alliance…
Despite the fact that Bulgaria may soon be led by a party that is ostensibly pro-Russian…
And despite the fact that Croatians and ethnic Albanians do not make the best of bedfellows…
And taking into account the fact that Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia are tight…
And that Serbia is loading up on offensive weapons…
And that Kosovo continues to taunt the Serbian enclave there…
And that Serbia does have a history of being a bit heavy handed…
And that key political movers and shakers in Serbia and Bulgaria are either pro-Russian, sanctioned by the US or both…
And that Russia is cracking…
And Iran is a mess…
And that Romania supports Ukraine and will stick with NATO…
Well…
It could be of his own making...
And will likely be at least partially his own fault...
As in a prophecy that will be self-fulfilling...
But still...
Vucic may be right.
Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.
File photo of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic with Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, taken in 2018, courtesy of President.bg, CC BY 2.5 BG <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/bg/deed.en>, via Wikimedia Commons.