Against all odds Ukraine still in the fight... and December remains crucial for both sides

The end of the year is in sight… and even though we are only a few days into December (and what a difference even a day makes), a remarkable array of events, ranging from the war to international events have potential to determine the fate of Ukraine.

Put simply, Russian President Vladimir Putin may have finally backed himself and his country into a hole—even while threatening doom with the frankly worrying Oreshnik medium range ballistic missile. Why? Russia’s all-out attempt to take ground in Ukraine—using both skilled and unskilled cannon fodder may finally be backfiring.

Which means... maybe that silver lining is back.

Now a caveat here is that somehow Russia seems to always find more soldiers, but bear in mind the following from north to south:

• Over the past few days Russian drives from all sides in Kursk have been sharply (and smartly) countered, resulting in extremely high losses to the Russians, much of these from drone strikes even on individual soldiers. Yet this would be—as is said in the vernacular—a simplification, as Russia has apparently wasted armour and vehicles on scale over the past days in bogged down towns toward the western Kursk salient (primarily south of Novoivanovka. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground appear to be moving/reacting akin to that of large-scale guerrilla groups—showing remarkable flexibility and taking on armour even with shoulder-borne rocket launchers (primarily Javelins) while still somehow holding ground. True, half of the initial Kursk gains are gone, but the remainder simply will not go away… and mud is beginning to play a role. In short, the odds of Ukraine holding onto Kursk until US president-elect Donald Trump comes into office is now high—even though only 10 days ago the outlook was much worse.

• Ukrainian forces have counterattacked—and almost shockingly, retaken ground in Kupiansk. It's too early to get into detail here, but this, if true, is remarkable to say the least.
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• Even worse news for Putin: the offensive at Pokrovsk may well have failed. Like in Kursk, Russian generals have increased attacks on Pokrovsk and Mynohrad, but here the gains have stopped, and (finally) rains and mud are kicking in (or about to). Mynohrad, which at first appeared a weak spot that could be used as a hinge against Pokrovsk has proven to be for the moment and insurmountable barrier. In short, if Russia does not get into the outskirts of either city soon, this offensive will be forced to halt until the real winter weather sets in—but that brings hardship to both sides (and arguably moreso to advancing troops). Here… kudos to our sources back in the summer who simply stated that Pokrovsk would not fall—and it appears that they are right.

• And yet… the news on the ground has been still more negative for Putin in that south of Pokrovsk at Kurakhove Russian forces have been slowed north of the Kurakhove Reservoir and possibly they have been halted to the south. This is not altogether good news for the Ukrainians, as Russian forces may well have entered or taken or they are in the process of taking Stari Terny, which is also seen on DeepstateUA maps. That advance still increases the danger for Ukrainians caught in the cauldron to the north (as seen on the map), but honestly, this was projected to have already been gone by now, and fierce Ukrainian resistance is indeed buying time.

Again, the weather and the rain is key. The southern cauldron and drives from Sukhi Yaly and Konstantianopolske had the brief potential for instant catastrophe for the Ukrainians—and yes, the danger is still there. But as can be seen on the map below… so is swampy terrain.

• North Korean troops appear to still be limited and a non-factor in the field.
• Syria—this theatre is not a typical focus for The Corners, but the coup attempt by Syrian rebels clearly caught the Bashar al-Assad regime and Russia off guard. Most of Aleppo is now in rebel hands, and Russia has been forced to use valuable resources in air strikes there in an attempt to prop of Assad… who has actually been “visiting” in Moscow. Even more revealing, according to the ISW, “Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in the near term.”

True, snap conclusions based on the above would be folly. That said, it may well be that our prediction that the Russian military would simply run short of men and supplies back in November—while too optimistic then—appears to be in the process of being proven correct. In short, if Russia does not actually take Kupiansk, flush the Ukrainians out of Kursk, seize territory south of Kupiansk to the Pischane front, seize at least Mynohrad and push the Ukrainians out of the Kurakhove cauldrons, the following conclusion is logical: while dealing a tremendous body blow to Ukraine (and while causing catastrophic loss of life, damage to civilian infrastructure and basically committing genocide), the gamble to take back territory at all cost prior to the inauguration of Donald Trump is doomed to fail.

Which means, yes, it appears doomed to fail. Which puts Putin himself in a precarious position indeed—especially bearing in mind the value-less Russian Ruble, a dire outlook for the Russian economy, the Syrian situation, mass resistance to a Russian-backed regime in Georgia, the unpredictability of China and signs that India is stepping back from previous economic ties/support of Russia.

Yet, for Ukraine, the current outlook is also dire. So bleak in fact that Ukrainian President (obviously being pushed by certain leaders in the West) is now backtracking and stating that peace talks that cede Ukrainian land under Russian occupation are no longer beyond the pale.

So a final conclusion for today, Dec. 4, 2024. There can be none—although the “curse of living in interesting times” mantra does come to mind. Let’s just say December is critical for all sides. Or maybe more than that. Focus on the next 10 days. What happens next could foreshadow the true outcome of the war.

Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.

File photo from January of Kupiansk courtesy of Main Directorate of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kharkiv Oblast, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.

Maps courtesy of Deepstate UA.