Boxing picks for Feb. 15-17: Foster vs. Nova; Curiel vs. Nontshinga; the return of Jo Jo Diaz and Mauricio Lara...

Not a mega boxing night, but there are a few fights to watch, chiefly O’Shaquie Foster vs. Abraham Nova in New York for the world WBC World Super Feather title and also Adrian Curiel vs. Sivenathi Nontshinga for the IBF World Light Fly in Oaxaca.

But there are other fights… including the return of Jo Diaz and also Maurico Lara, with the latter coming off an upset and uninspiring UD loss to Leigh Wood in May last year.

Anyway, Yours Truly is now 2-0 on fight predictions for 2024 (hey, we just started back up) so let’s see if we can keep it going

First let’s dive into  Foster fight.

O'Shaquie Foster/21-2-0/12 wins by KO/no losses by KO vs. Abraham Nova (23-1-0/16 wins by KO, one loss by KO.

First let’s talk Foster. No, he’s not a prospect at age 30, but he’s still an up-and-comer, and he has done well enough over 23 fights, as his last loss was a split decision back in 2016. He stands 5′ 8½″ and has a reach of reach 72″  and fights out of Houston, Texas. His last two wins should be enough to generate interest among hard cores, with a UD over Ray Vargas and then a tough, come-from-behind, gritty-as-hell TKO over Eduardo Hernandez last October.

Abraham Nova/23-1-0/16 wins by KO/one loss by KO is yes, the dye-my-beard-blond-and-wear-it-Abe-Lincoln-style fighter who had quite a run until he me the uber talented Robeisy Ramirez for his sole (and likely for Nova earth shattering) KO defeat. Nova stands 5’9” and boasts a 72” reach. He was born in Puerto Rico and fights out of Albany, New York.

Now we’re going to make this quick and simple today, as the day job is calling. Nova has always been an exciting fighter, and Yours Truly believes the Ramirez loss was an outlier. Ramirez (despite his own recent and heartbreaking loss) is an insanely talented boxer, and it was clear that Nova simply had no answers. His loose, but impressive punch selection became tentative, his jab non-existent and he took a beating. Contrast this with his recent destruction of Jonathan Romero (worth checking out), and it’s as if he’s a different fighter.

What can we say. Some guys have off nights.

That said, Nova has a great right hand for both straights and uppercuts. His lead hook can hook very wide and he can be beat by shorter, sharper punches (Robeisy proved that, even though he also fights loose), but he is a tough out for most anyone even if not an elite fighter.

Foster also falls short of being elite, yet he does offer tighter punches and also has tighter defense then the sometimes go-for-broke Nova. But more interestingly is his ability to switch hit, and arguably he fights better (and more responsibly) out of a southpaw stance, and it was this stance that turned the tables on a very game Hernandez in his last fight.

This fight could be much the same. Expect Foster to come out as an ortho but to switch to southpaw if Nova begins to score. And ortho-to-ortho expect Nova to score. And while neither have overwhelming power, both have the top to put down the other (although only Nova has taken a loss by KO).

So a quick glance at the matrix:

Jab:                       Relatively equal, although sometimes Foster lifts up his chin (especially if pressed while throwing).

Footwork:           Difficult to compare, as Nova’s is far looser, while Foster relies on little steps. That said, he is impressive out of a the southpaw stance, so we’ll lean that way.

Defense:             Nova is more elusive when he feels confident, yet he did not look good dealing with the southpaw Robeisy. That said… it was Robeisy. There are real questions here—just as there is the afore mentioned habit by Foster to lift his chin when roughed up or pushed back to get it out of the way. Nova is both crafty enough and loopy enough to catch him like this. But hey, we’ll call this one even too.

Power:                 With a 69-plus KO percentage, this has to go to Nova, and his right hand (and uppercut) will hurt you. His lead hook can as well, although sometimes it’s too wide to generate the power it deserves. It should be said that from the southpaw stance that Foster had a very good jab (and he looks almost more natural in this stance than in the orthodox stance—but we’ll go with Nova here).

Chin:                    Nova’s been stopped so there you go. Foster.

Length:                No advantage, although Nova sometimes make better use of his reach (but can leave himself exposed in the process).

Hand speed:      We’ll go with Nova here, although it’s close.

 

The Corners/GOG’s pick:

Foster is the oddsmakers choice as a… 1.11 to 6.5 favorite on the Fortuna betting site. That’s too wide. Yes, Foster should take this, but it’s closer to a near coin flip, and Foster is not going to boggle Nova as did Robeisy. We’ll still go with Foster on this one, as once he switches to southpaw, he probably will make Nova pay. Probably. But this smells like an upset. Yours truly is not quite convinced, but he may be before the fight starts tonight.

 

Other picks (hey, sorry for the quick picks this week, but you do what you do):

Adrian Curiel vs Sivenathi Nontshinga—only a few months ago Curiel got the upset stoppage to win the IBF title. Upset city, but now the odds are running the other way now, favoring Curiel at 1.62 to 2.5. These are on the mark. Expect Curiel to win by stoppage. He’s rough, tough, does great body work, hits hard, has a bit of a Chavez look about him, and his head movement is better than you’d expect. Nontshinga is well-schooled and has  great jab, but he’s too frail for this guy who works, works, works.

Joseph Diaz (yep, Jo Jo) is back against Jesus Perez Campos—tonight (like in a few hours). Diaz has always had great skills, and despite being tiny, he even managed to trouble the uber long Devin Haney, but he’s also lost fights he probably should have won (and lost battles against the scale and in his personal life). This time around he made weight (bit of a catchweight, but ok) and he’s going against a Perez Campos who has racked up recent losses, basically getting UDed any time he moves up. The odds are well in Diaz’s favor at 1.14 to 5.50—possibly as this is make-or-break for him. Making weight is a good sign, but guys going up and coming down never inspire confidence at lightweight (even if this version of lightweight was for Diaz 137). Still, Diaz is a better boxer than Campos—and even if Campos can hit, Diaz has always had a solid chin. No upset expected here.

So there you have it. If you bet, bet responsibly, but otherwise see you next week.

 

Boxing gloves photo by: Danielaarceo123, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.