Boxing picks for Feb. 24-25; Takuma Inoue vs. Jerwin Ancajas; Edgar Berlanga vs. Padraig McCrory… and much more

All right, last week was by no means banner for GOG (or The Corner) standards, and it pushed our record for this year down to 3-2 in 2024, as Jo Jo Diaz lost in a fight with very debatable judging (we really saw a Diaz win here), but Curiel burned himself out and… was stopped.

But hey, that’s why they fight the fights.

And yes, there are more fights this weekend (whew) even if a bit more low-profile. That said, most boxing sites will focus on the return of once-upon-a-time-first-round-KO-king Edgar Berlanga…

But nope not us. Instead we’re going to focus on what really matters, which is in the mind of this Grumpy Old Geezer...

Takuma Inoue (18-1-0/4 wins by KO, zero losses by KO) vs. Jerwin Ancajas (34-3-2/23 wins by KO/zero losses by KO).

Now this is an interesting fight, with the prize being the WBA World Bantamweight belt, and perhaps this becoming a crossroads fight for the already 32-year old Ancajas. But first, Takuma Inoue. Yes, he is the younger brother of P4P monster Naoya Inoue, and yes, he is highly skilled and has deeply rooted, Japanese-style fundamentals.

He just doesn’t have much pop, as evidenced by the fact that he has managed only four stoppages in 18 fights. Does that make him a bad fighter? Nope. Does that mean he is the underdog against Ancajas? Nope. In fact he is favored at 1.44 to 3.05 a la the Fortuna gambling site, and for at least decent if not good reason. The little guys age fast, and Ancajas’s stock dropped when he met his kryptonite in 2022, losing to Fernando Martinez twice by UD.

That said, Ancajas can punch, and this should be a helluva fight. The tale of the tape does give Ancajas an advantage in reach and height, and he is a very savvy southpaw with plenty of experience. But let’s run this through GOG’s/The Corners’ ever shifting matrix and see where we stand.

Experience—we have to give this to Ancajas, who has had a long, storied (for the little guys) career, and whom Takuma has called his idol. Of course, Inoue has the experience of dealing with is older brother (like his entire life)… so there’s that, but still we’ll go with Ancajas.

Height/reach—this also goes to Ancajas, who stands 5’6” and has a 66.5” reach compared to Inoue’s 5’4 ½” height and 64” reach, which is going to make the smaller man suffer.

Age/wear and tear—Inoue has the advantage here, but he is actually 28, so he is no spring chicken.

Jab—This goes to the longer, more rangy Ancajas. It’s quick, hard, and he throws straight punches. But he’s aged and this is closer than it used to be. We’ll still go with Ancajas here, but just barely.

Feet—Inoue does not have bad feet. In fact, he has good, well-schooled, conservative feet.  But at his best Ancajas’s in-and-out was far superior… and quick. But it’s not as quick as it used to be, and in his last fight his balance did not look ideal. We’ll account for age and call this even.

Lead hook—Ancajas still has a quick, powerful lead hook. Inoue… erm, not so much.

Power—Ancajas.

Combos—neither are particularly dazzling combo guys, although Ancajas has good punch selection. And while we would normally go with Ancajas, the balance issue in his last fight… was not ideal. We’ll call this a draw (but still leaning toward Ancajas.

Chin—neither has lost by KO so we’ll call it even.

Defense—this goes to Ancajas. Inoue gets hit a lot. Seriously. Good chin, but he does get hit often and clean.

Intangibles—the less-famous always has a lot to live up to. Which means he’ll try very, very hard. As the fight is in Japan… we should probably lean Inoue’s way here (especially as Ancajas is winding down a very solid career.

GOG/The Corners’ prediction—This is one of those that from the outset looks like it’s Inoue, but on closer inspection, it’s closer to a 50-50 fight. The smart pick is likely Inoue by SD. We’re not going play smart this time and go with the old dog: Ancajas by UD (as we don’t believe in SD’s in Japan).

Other weekend picks…

Edgar Berlanga 21 -0 -0/16 Kos/0 losses by KO vs. Padraig McCrory 18 -0 -0/9 Kos/0 losses by KO  (1.22 to 4.32 on Fortuna). Berlanga is big and unwieldy at 168. He also boasts a 73” reach, but the last time we saw him… he still crossed his feet. He’s been working though, and he’s better than he gets credit for. Padraig is better schooled, but he has very little power, and Berlanga will go for a stoppage. Wethinks he gets it this time.

Kamil Bednarek vs. Hugo Exner—Bednarek at 13 -0 is a bit of a late up-and-comer, but he’s trying to make a career in the US now with a bout in Huntington. He will roll over the 11-14-2 Exner, which is why Exner is there.

Andy Cruz vs Brayan Rodriguez. Cruz is new to pro boxing, but he is “THE CUBAN” who has talent galore and trains under Bozy Ennis (and trains with the already legendary Boots Ennis). This is for the IBF International Lightweight belt, which doesn’t mean much, but Rodriguez is 14-2-0 and he can fight… a bit. Cruz is calling Rodriguez dangerous. He isn’t. Especially not to Cruz. This will end in a quick stoppage as Cruz again impresses mightily.

Junto Nakatani vs Alexandro Santiago for the WBC World Bantam title. Nakatani is a helluva fighter with 26 wins and 19 Kos. Santiago is a tough, tough Mexican who is 28-3 with 14 Kos, which is also impressive at the weight. This one is going to be fireworks, but Nakatani takes it by stoppage. To put this in perspective… Santiago beat Nonito Donaire. Maybe it’s an older Donaire, but still… this is the sleeper fight of the week (even though boxing hard cores all know the names).

Kosei Tanaka vs Christian Bacasegua for the vacant WBO World Super Fly title. Tanaka lost  his luster back in 2020 when he was stopped by sure Hall-of-Famer Kazuto Ioka, but he has been sharp ever since. Yet Bacasegua is a tough Mexican who since a UD loss in 2019 has been whipping up on… mostly no names. Bacasegua has porous defense and doubles up (even triples up) on hooks and Tanaka is also typically there to be hit. The odds are 1.17 to 5.20 as per Fortuna for Tanaka, and the odds makers are likely right. Expect a wide UD. But Bacasequa is an outlier, hooks to the body fairly well, and if the unexpected upset (yes, I know) is possible… it might actually be here in the “unknown Mexican comes from nowhere to get the body shot” story that we’ve seen so many times before. But it’s not likely, brothas and sistas. Just not likely.

Luis Alberto Lopez  vs Reiya Abe for the IBF World Feather title. This is a mandatory for Lopez, whose off-kilter, let’s wing it style has been doom for all since 2019. He’s far from perfect at 29-2, but he is also coming off a decision over Josh Warrington, a KO over Michael Conlan and a UD over Joet Gonzalez. Reiya Abe is a southpaw out of Japan with a 25-3-1 record. He’s rangy and typically Japanese-skilled but he won’t keep Lopez off him. Lopez by late stoppage .

Photo of Jerwin Ancajas by REY BANIQUET/PRESIDENTIAL PHOTO, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.