Boxing picks for the July 12, 2024 weekend...

Those who don’t know Chocolatito… hey, you guys are casuals. The super fly phenom is a sure thing Hall of Famer, arguably and ATG, and he is one of Yours Truly’s all-time favorite fighters. His footwork, slips, shifts, output, you name it is legendary, and in a sense he was long revered (by not only me) as practically a perfect fighter. You also do not see so many KOs at the lighter weights so ranking him as top P4P fighter for years was a given.

Unfortunately, that was some time ago. He is currently 37-years-old, coming off a pair of excruciatingly painful losses (albeit there was a win sandwiched in there, but we will get to that in a moment) to rival Jan Francisco Estrada (with plenty of arguments that he was robbed in their 2021 meeting)… and at the lighter weights, Father Time can be a nightmare indeed.

Which brings us to the potential banana peel that is Rober Barrera. Barrera may not be nearly as well-known, but in fact the 31-year-old has always been an interesting fighter, with reach, quickness, punch variation and a decent KO percentage of his own (62.96 percent).

A tale of the tape notes that he is an inch-and-a-half taller than Choco at 5’41/2” and he boasts a 66 1/2” reach to Choco’s 64”.

That said, most of his best work… has come against weak opposition. He has often tended to fade, and the 12-1 odds against him seem fair. After all, only two fights ago Chocolito dealt with the much higher rated up-and-comer Julio Cezar Martinez as if it was a sparring match, often tapping the kid as if to say, “Don’t get depressed—after all, I am Chocolatito.”

Yet the most recent fight against Estrada was a worry. Choco seemed puffy, far heavier footed. The Kenny-Weldon shifts were remarkably absent, as was his legendary work rate. Although he often landed the cleaner, more telling shots, Estrada, in my humble opinion, did outwork Gonzalez in that fight (which was almost as heartbreaking as the robbery two fights before).

Which means… watch out for father time. On the upside, recent sparring work with P4P rated Jessie “Bam” Martinez drew gym raves, and you are not going to get better sparring (for either competitor) than that.

So banana peel factor notwithstanding, the GOG pick is Chocolatito by late KO. Yeah, 12-1 is tempting… and boxing is boxing, but as much as I love an underdog bet, I’d resist and bank more on a late TKO win for Choco.

In other words: Gonzalez by TKO in 10.

But the GOG is a bit worried about this one. This would be a sad fight (and night) for Father Time to bite.

Despite the moaning over Ennis needing to fight better talent, this is a fight to watch. Not because Avanesyan has a chance, but because Ennis needs to be dominant.

As in DOM-I-NANT.

As he really needs to knock out Ava in four.

But we’ll get to this in a moment.

First, Ennis is undoubtedly a talent. He is quick, can switch hit more naturally than just about anybody ever (with apologies to both Crawford and Marvin Hagler) and he has flair and power.

And, considering the fact that fighters are obviously not dying to get blasted out, his competition has really not been that bad. No, names like Roiman Villa, Thomas Dulorme or Christ Van Heerden or Serbei Lipinets are not going to move the masses, but these were still world-class fighters, and other, still lesser known battlers did come into fight.

(On this note, the Lipinets fight is a personal favorite—it rather said, yeah, this kid is real, and it was a pleasure to watch).

That said, there will be doubters until Boots gets a true limelight fight, and the obvious opponent here is and has been Terence Crawford.

This doesn’t look likely to happen anytime soon, as Crawford has openly stated he sees no money in a Boots fight, and he’s moving up to 154, but…

If Ennis runs over Avanesyan in four with a highlight reall KO… the dialogue could change.

But as a devil’s advocate, let’s consider the doubts. For all of this flair, Ennis does get hit. A bit too often. Likewise, Yours Truly is wondering if the power is real or if this is yet another case of a huge kid managing in his youth to boil down to welter. Because Ennis is indeed a big kid for the weight.

For comparison’s sake, the orthodox Ava (35) stands 5’8” and has a 68 ½” reach. Boots stands 5’10” and boasts a 74” reach.

That’s quite a big difference, and expect the fight to be Goliath vs. David’esque (except for the finish).

And, due to Ennis’s size and age (27), that boil down to 147 will hurt. While his goal of unifying 147 should be eminently doable, this fight (and even the weigh in) will be indicative. Additionally, Ava is a good fighter. Yes, he was wiped out by Crawford, but that kind of always happens. Jump back in time to 2021 and he thoroughly upended the career trajectory of slickster (then) Josh Kelly.

True, that was then, but ishort, he’s a smart vet. Undersized in this matchup, but he’s no easy out.

GOG’s prediction… the weight cut hurts Ennis, gym rat that he is (and maybe even more for this very reason), and he turns in a solid performance that ends in a KO in 6.

Which is good. But the critics will come, and this may also mean that a Crawford fight drifts a bit too far out of reach.

On the other hand, a big KO by round three could have the makings of a massively intriguing superfight (if eventually at 154).

At any rate, once again: Ennis by KO in 6.

Other fights to watch:

Janibek Alimkhanuly vs. Andrei Mikhailovich. This is another 9-1 special, and we’re not seeing much if any chance of Janibek being upended here. He does need to put on a crushing performance, as the GGG comparisons are simply wearing thin (and he’s not getting any younger). But also noteworthy is that like often puts up a good fight against like in the sense that as a Russian (if fighting out of New Zealand), Mikhailovich will be familiar with Kazakh style—and he is going to swing. I mean swing. He has a good long jab and when he starts throwing… he can get wild. This could bring the fireworks.

GOG prediction: This fight gets nutty in the mid rounds, and… Mikhailovich goes down in seven.

Raymond Muratalla vs. Tevin Farmer. Some might give Farmer a chance at 7-1 for the upset. The GOG is not convinced. At all, really. Muratalla by maybe controversial UD.

Ruben Villa vs. Sulaiman Segawa. The odds are 8-1 for Villa here, and yep, we’ll go with those. Villa by UD.

Skye Nicolson vs. Dyana Vargas. What can we say? We like Skye and the 9-1 odds are right in line with expectations. We’ll even go with a stoppage here. Nicholson by UD.

So not too much in terms of underdog bets (unless you are as wild as Mikhailovich), but be smart, friends. Be smart.