CEE crime, spy and somewhat appalling politics roundup (April 10, 2024)

When it comes to region-wide events, crime, politics and intrigue, March was roiling, and the early days of April promise more of the same, with Russia accusing the US of backing ISIS-K, Ukraine ceding ground with next to no ammunition and political turbulence simply the norm across CEE. And yes, there is narco-crime. Plenty to be had all round.

But this week we are going to do things a little differently and begin with the Polish crime sheet. Why? Is it because Poland has more crime than other CEE countries? Nope. Is it because the goal of Yours Truly is to soil his own nest? Absolutely not. Then why?

WHY? JUST WHY?

In truth, for perhaps the first time in the history of this site, Yours Truly is going to be complimentary. For the Polish Central Bureau of Investigation (CBSP) has been remarkably consistent not over months, but in fact over years, especially when it comes to narco busts. Of course, Spain still appears to be leading the battles against both narco gangs and Russian organized crime, but in this week’s edition, yes we are going to highlight the recent reality (and the flood of narcotics does continue), as well as a few successes (which, in fact, are hard won).

But don’t worry, we’ll get to the regional intrigue and grime in the sections below.

Polish crime roundup

All right, The Spanish-Polish connection remains THE THING when it comes to narcotics, and this continues to be the cause with marijuana, as on April 4, the Polish CBSP noted a 100 kg truck seizure worth in the vicinity of PLN 5 mln. Poznan-based CBSP officers, under the direction of the Lodz Prosecutor’s Office section to combat national organized crime and corruption, picked up on a gang that has likely transported shipments of 75 kg to 100 kg of marijuana from Spain to Poland since 2022. Prosecutors estimate that at least five shipments came through, but there may have been more. One suspect has been arrested and the investigation is continuing. One day later, the CBSP also noted the arrest of 12 gang members in Silesia, the seizure of 3.8 kg of methamphetamine, approximately six kilos of marijuana and six kilos of precursors to produce psychotropics. And while these may not be huge seizures, the gang is suspected of bringing some 500 kilograms of narcotics to market since 2017.

These most recent narco breakthroughs follows two others that took place in March, including yet another seized marijuana shipment—this one seeing two detained and also coming from Spain and running 39 kilograms and likely worth PLN 700,000. Likewise, the CBSP in mid-March seized four kilograms of cocaine worth approximately PLN 1 mln as part of a larger investigation that now includes 39 suspects, of which 19 have been charged not only with drug distribution (to the tune of up to 300 kilograms of various substances), but also with participation in an organized crime gang.

But narco trafficking is not the only game in town. Also on April 4, the CBSP arrested two Warsaw suspects and seized more than one million cigarettes with no excise stamps, which at the minimum represents approximately PLN 1.4 mln in unpaid tax.

Only one day earlier, the CBSP announced that it, together with the Polish National Revenue Administration (KAS) and the Poznan Regional Prosecutor’s Office had broken up an organized crime gang that had also dealt in illegal cigarettes, which likely ripped off the Polish tax authorities to the tune of PLN 26 mln. Seized cigarettes and tobacco was noted to be worth approximately PLN 27 mln, police said. This comes on top of late March arrests that and seizures that netted some eight million cigarettes and saw three detained in an unrelated gang.

Meanwhile the in late March the CBSP also announced it was continuing a VAT invoicing scam investigation, together with KAS, to make seven arrests in a long running bust that already has some 75 suspects. The false invoice scam likely cost the Polish tax authorities close to PLN 60 mln, with the investigation having begun in 2022.

Finally, the Polish CBSP Shadow Hunters unit nabbed the infamous 46-year-old Marcin K a.k.a. Belmondziak, who was on the run for two years and sought on charges of dealing in narcotics, kidnapping and extortion—and he was also previously convicted of being a member of the Skatula Gang, which was known for murder, kidnapping for ransom, the production and use of explosives, the trafficking of narcotics and racketeering. The Shadow Hunter Unit learned Marcin K. was likely hiding in Germany, and through cooperation with Berlin’s Landeskriminalamt LKA 662 unit, managed to nab him when he was leaving a local gym.

Yes, he was using false documents, but it was him all right. Rather remarkable when you think about it.

Now for the region.

Bulgaria

It would appear that Bulgaria has been a focus for the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPP0) ever since former Romanian anti-corruption head Laura Kovesi took over as European Anti-corruption czar.  In short, more supposed misappropriation of funds—this time on the Zheleznitsa tunnel project where millions were allegedly stolen by various members of a three-company consortium, according to the EPPO. The project itself was worth more than EUR 200 mln, with close to half of that financed by EU funds. Yet lest anyone believe this investigation is a product of Kovesi picking on the Bulgarian state, note that it was reportedly the Bulgarian state through the Agency for National Security that called for an investigation. And why? Let’s just say there were the usual red flags in the form of shell companies, cash paid out seemingly on a whim and in the end the math simply not adding up.

But hey, math is kind of like that.

What would Bulgarian news be without news of yet another government? This time around the new prime minister (for the time being, as this is yet another caretaker government) is Dimitar Glavchev, and unsurprisingly nobody is truly happy, as Glavchev was chosen by the Bulgarian Legal Commission on April 2 because… and let’s emphasize this, none of the parties involved are truly happy, including There is Such a People, the We Continue the Change Party and GERB.  Glavchev formerly headed Bulgaria’s Supreme Audit Board so at least he is  clued in, but in fact his appointment and the plan to create a caretaker government appears once again more symptom than solution. For following and endless series of failed governments and frustration on all sides, Bulgaria attempted to implement a plan that would see a rotation of prime ministers.

In fact, the rotation plan seemed to be on track as late as march when Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov (PP-DB) resigned, which should have set the stage for GERB’s Mariya Gabriel to rule for the next nine months. Gabriel, a former EU commissioner, however, should have expected the going to get rough, as behind the scenes there was (as always) mulit-time and Teflon former Prime Minister Boyko Borysov, who appeared eager to satisfy demands of the Turkish DPS party and, apparently, long time (and highly controversial) DPS MP Delyan Peevski.

Who happens to be sanctioned by the US for corruption.

Unsurprisingly, the agreement to agree (i.e. to share power and continue the rotation) collapsed.

But could there be light at the end of the tunnel? Doubtful, but then again, at deadline Glavchev, supported by Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, appeared to have generally technocrat route, which may not be exactly what Bulgaria needs, but clearly is what it deserves. In fact, Glavchev stated that he tried to choose apolitical ministers--only the appointment of Kalin Stoyanov to Interior Minister, as well as of other GERB-backed ministers immediately riled the We Continue to Change Party, which promptly walked out of consultations.

Which rather bodes… the status quo for the immediate future.

Which indeed is immediate, but also will be quite short-lived. For Parliament has now approved the new government, but it will only hold the fort until early elections June 9.

In a special report, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty documented the literal eruption of fake websites and “disinformation operatives” that appeared back in March when NATO held exercises in Poland. The new websites, which sprang up like… mushrooms attempted to ramp up fears all over and painted the exercises as a prelude to a NATO invasion of Russia. And what does this have to do with Bulgaria? A Bulgarian think tank, the Center for the Study of Democracy, reported revealed that a Bulgarian “advertising platform” AdRain.bg, was a “link” that helped spread disinformation through newly registered websites. AdRain sharply denied this accusation, nothing that anyone has the right to use the platform to advertise sites. Meanwhile, Bulgarians, according to information published in the story, have not proven particularly savvy when it comes to recognizing misinformation.

Interesting story. Check it out here; https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-disinformation-mushroom-websites/32893788.html

 

Czechia

While the major news has centered on the plan by Prime Minister Peter Pavel to acquire shells for Ukraine—which to at least some extent seems to be working—much of the country has been rendered aghast by news of a hospital mix-up that saw the wrong woman given an abortion.

Yes, you read that right. A woman went in for a checkup and was given an abortion instead. And she happened to be foreign. Meanwhile, the vice chair of the Czech Medical Chamber stated that likely if she would have understood Czech, she would have “resisted” such a procedure.

Yes, that’s what he said. We kid you not.

But back to Pavel’s push for ammunition. This comes in the wake of the EU proving inept in keeping a promise to supply one million artillery shells to Ukraine in 2023 (with this deadline quietly extended into 2024—and missed), not to mention Leopard tanks in time for Ukraine’s failed offensive last summer.

In fact, by early March the Czech plan to supply 800,000 shells was in fact fully-funded, and the ammo was said to be in transit throughout the end of March.

Even if some argue that this was effectively a band-aid in light of the lack of necessary US aid, which is currently blocked in US Congress, it also served to prove to fellow EU countries (and potentially embarrass them as well) that yes, if there is a will, there is a way.

Or was there? A will. And way. And how much ammo has been sent. Questions in fact still abound, as only April 4 it was revealed that although 18 countries had joined the initiative… the cash was lacking, and it appears that at least when it comes to these 800,000 shells the Czechs themselves are carrying most of the weight.

Lithuania

Havana Syndrome—it’s back, and it seems to be increasingly world-wide, with the US Pentagon now stating that a US representative of the Department of Defense came down with symptoms last year in Vilnius.

These symptoms, which can include severe headache and nausea, are increasingly believed to be brought on by… Russian targeting—through what may actually be a microwave or acoustic sound-wave type of weapon. Or not, but we’ll get to that momentarily The name of the syndrome comes from a series of US officials that grew sick in Havana, but also in many other overseas destinations (and Canadian diplomats have been affected as well). But is Havana Syndrome real? Well, here is where it gets interesting—since the first 26 incidents in Cuba, literally hundreds of US personnel have… become ill. Interesting is that many of these (in fact, they seemed to be targeted) were US intelligence personnel, yet somehow for years (and this has been going on since 2016) in fact it has been the US government and military that have appeared to have written off the syndrome actually not coming from foreign governments. Despite the hundreds (if not close to 1,000 incidents), the US government has been fairly consistent on this point, although there have also been plenty of victims claiming otherwise and even claiming conspiracy (as in not to pay for health issues created while on the job), and every once in a while there has been a troublesome, declassified report, which seems to indicate that, well, something must be up.

And now, just like that (as of April 1 anyway), the tables have turned, with various news outlets, including Der Spiegel, the independent Russian publication The Insider and CBS claiming that Russia has targeted the 1,000 or so victims with a sonic weapon that has caused migraines, severe ear pain, nausea and vision problems.

In fact, the syndrome even made 60 Minutes in the US—and this was of the most-watched episodes of all time. So whether it’s real or not—or whether the Russians are behind it (or not)—Your Truly would bet that quite a few Americans believe this is the case.

Back to standard corruption investigations, Lithuanian MEP Viktor U. is under the gun, as his Lithuanian Labour Party and another MEP may well have created fictitious costs (in the form of ghost employees—or at least one anyway) to snake out some EUR 500,000 in funds. In some respects, this is a standard game across many countries in many sectors. In others, this is quite serious, as the rumour mill has it that Lithuania is not the only country with ghost-employee bloated staff.

Poland

For those celebrating or rueing recent local elections in Poland, yes, the Law-and-Justice (PiS) party did garner some 34.27 percent across the board, and yes, this was heralded as a sign of PiS coming back and retaking Parliament. But hold your horses. The PiS party has almost always managed to grab close to level of support (although that is quite impressive and it put PiS firmly in the lead of when it comes to the popular vote), but on the other hand it lost to hated arch rival Citizen’s Coalition (KO) in both Warsaw and Gdansk—with both viewed as key cities when it comes to shaping national elections and potentially a presidential run (but more on that in a moment). Meanwhile, KO coalition partners also did quite well, which still means that KO plus it’s voting block partners would have more than 50 percent control of Parliament if elections were to be held today.

Yet national elections are not being held today, and local elections do tend to tell a story. And way, way back when Citizen’s Platform (PO) lost control in what was perhaps the biggest protest election since the early 1990s—and which saw PiS return to dominate for… years—local electorate was quite indicative when it came to Parliament and the presidency both.

So PiS has reason to crow that they are on the rebound (and PiS founder and former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski has done crowing) and KO and partners can still rest reassured… for now.

Polish-Israeli relations took a serious turn for the worse in the wake of an Israeli strike that killed seven Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza—despite the organization having sorted routes and times to avoid just that. Among the dead was Polish volunteer Damian Sobol, and Sobol’s death drew sharp protest from Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as from the citizenry. Yet Israel’s ambassador to Poland, Yacov Livne, managed to worsen a horrific situation with comments that appeared to label Poles—or at least the extreme right and left in Poland--as anti-Semitic. This prompted a dreaded “summoning” by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, talk of Livne’s expulsion and an apology on the part of Livne and Israel both, with the latter calling the killings a mistake.  Polish President Andrzej Duda, who supports the right-wing party, PiS, said Livne’s comments were an outrage, and he pointed to Livne as behind constant Polish-Israeli  difficulties.

Yet Livne was not in the end expelled from Poland and both sides have toned down rhetoric while the world watches Gaza, following US pressure for a ceasefire and displeasure from the UK over the more than 30,000 deaths in Gaza, limits on humanitarian aid and threat of starvation as result of the war on Hamas.

Ugly stuff all around.

Meanwhile, the reckoning continues… to muddle forward… at home, with Polish Central Bank President Adam Glapinski brushing off a motion in Parliament to see him removed from a position that he somewhat contoversial held through the reign of the Law-and-Justice Party (PiS). Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition government believes that Glapinski showed no independence of PiS, primarily during the COVID-19 crisis, but perhaps more seriously, that he was not quite on the up-and-up re the banks’s performance.

Glapinski is not one to be intimidated, called the accusations “baseless” and noted his conservative approach with regard to quantitative easing during the COVD years.

To be honest, PiS is vulnerable on serveral fronts. Taking into consideration past banking scandals, this was not the approach expected, and in fact it feels like a bit of a cheap shot, considerring the difficulties of the COVID years, rising inflation, the war in Ukraine and… etc., etc.

In other words, pick your battles. But no Polish party has ever proven paricularly adept in this regard.

Romania

Slovakia has a new president (more on that later), and Romanian President Iohannis Klaus seems quite happy about it—a point that was remarked upon across the region, as Slovakian President-elect Peter Pellegrini was backed by Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico and SMER, which 1) appears quite the fan of Russia and 2) has worked to roll back laws on corruption and the prosecution of corruption, much to the frustration of the EU.

In truth, Iohannis’s statement—that he anticipates working for the “benefit of our nations” and also of the EU, was quite neutral. Which, considering that Iohannis was for years considered the voice of reason back during Romania’s attempts under the sway of former strongman Liviu Dragnea to also cut corruption punishments.

So maybe this is a non-story.

Or maybe not.

But Yours Truly is crossing his truly worried fingers (and toes), as Romania is also working to counter potential hybrid attacks of the kind that Russia undertook in Crimea (and arguably Donetsk).

Slovakia

Yes, Slovakia has a new president, this being the aforementioned Pellegrini, who to the dismay of the EU politically correct (and to Yours Truly, if I need to be honest) was backed and will assumably back Fico and SMER. Keep in mind that Fico seems almost Orbanesque when it comes to Russia; that he immediately promised that Slovakia would not participate in the supply of arms to Ukraine; that yes, he has pushed to “reform” Slovakia’s legal system, which means reducing punishments for corruption; getting rid of the special prosecutor for corruption; naming NGOs that have foreign donations exceeding EUR 5,000 as NGOs with foreign support (which is essentially naming them as foreign agents, which is quite similar to Russian moves before and during the war in Ukraine: reducing punishment for rape and nominating the indicted to key posts.

Which sounds a lot.

Because it is.

Ukraine

There is a great deal to unwrap here. But let’s be blunt. Ukraine is now losing the war.

Not to be defeatist, but yep, I said it. And let me repeat.

With quotes.

“Ukraine is losing the war.”

Scary stuff. But across the various sectors of the front Russia is making gains—just about everywhere, and these are no longer the tiny, 50- or 100-meter gains of the past. From the Ukrainian pull out at Avdiivka, which was arguably far more than symbolic, to Russian advances on the Bakhmut front, constant pressure near Synkivka and worries about a new Kharkiv offensive, there is little room for optimism. The Ukrainian government has conceded that now—without US support—the options are to dig in or retreat in tiny steps.

Yet beleaguered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left no doubts this week when he said in a far more stark warning than anything that has come out of his mouth in the past that without US support Ukraine may well lose the war.

The host of factors that has led to this moment deserves its own summary (stay tuned), but the crux of the issue is that the much vaunted US 60 bln in aid that simply has not come… still does not appear to be coming, with US Republicans unwilling to make concessions on illegal immigration—which Republicans have tied to more aid for Ukraine, and Democrats… unwilling to make concessions on slowing illegal immigration to gain support, as this has now been tied by Republicans to passing said aid.

Then there is the fact that Ukraine is running out of men. Zelensky has now agreed to lower the age for compulsory military registration from 27 to 25, but—and here is the key—the second part of a draft law, which would “mobilize” those in the 25-27 age group, has not been passed. Which means for the moment that numbers are not going to increase.

If this seems like yet another kettle of.. worms, well, yes, it is. Ukrainian is vastly outnumbered (and the Ukrainian military has said that Russia is currently training yet another 300,000 men for what will likely be an assault on Kharkiv), and Western critics have harped on the president as typically younger men are drafted during wars. True, Ukrainian men between 18 and 60 cannot leave the country if deemed fit for service. Also true, locally Ukrainian… draft agents have at times become quite aggressive, even entering bars and restaurants to strong-arm those seen as fit for the fight. Finally, the average age on the front line (and interestingly, this also seems to be an age group that has proven remarkably able to take constant physical demands and battle stress better than others) is, according to our sources… 43.

Also true, while polls reveal that Ukrainians absolutely do not want to compromise with Russia, they are also not in favour of lowering the age for mobilization—and Zelensky is keenly aware of this. And likely he has been aware of this more keenly than pretty much anyone for well more than a year, as his conflict with the incredibly popular and now ex Chief of Staff Valerii Zaluzhnyi apparently centered on this very point.

Yet there is a final factor, which often gets lost in the shuffle. If, theoretically, lowering the mobilization age suddenly provided the Ukrainian armed forces with 300,000 able bodies, the sad truth of the matter is that US aid is still needed to not only get them to the front, but to train them, arm them and house them.  Which means that for the moment this point may be effectively moot.

But could there have been a window? Could Zaluzhnyi have been right? And if he’d had said youthful conscripts back prior to the ill-fated offensive (but when Ukraine was much better supplied), would it have made a difference. Maybe. But that window has closed.

And even worse, the current window to defend Ukraine—if it can be called a window at all—looks to be closing as well.

And if the damn bursts? If US aid simply does not come?

The world will change. Not only in the East, but in the West. And no matter how many political points one may accrue, no matter how right various Republicans may well be with regard to the southern boarder of the United States, it will not be for the better.

[Ed. Note—those wanting to see comparative maps, check out the Patreon update (free of charge) that will go up on this site later this week.]

Photo courtesy of the Polish CBSP.