CEE crime, spy and somewhat appalling politics roundup (Feb. 16, 2024)--and Avdiivka

This week we're bringing you a bit extra in the "appalling roundup." Yes, prior to getting into the country highlights, there will be a bit editorializing (but hey, victims and clients need to hear this), but then comes the roundup.

But first, Ukraine and Avdiivka. 

There is no good way to put this: Ukraine is having a rough time of it. As predicted here—although the Ukrainians have held out far longer than expected, supply lines that were key to holding the center of Avdiivka have essentially been cut in the north and further south the one road in and out is under constant fire control. This comes on the heels of a decision by President Volodymyr Zelensky to replace the ever popular and now former chief of staff, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, with the hard-line and more Soviet schooled general, Oleksandr Syrsky.

To say Syrsky has inherited a difficult scenario is only partially true, as yes, Ukraine is attempting to defend itself without enough men, ammunition, planes or even drones, but Syrsky has also long been a key player in Ukraine’s defense. Depending on where you stand, his record is mixed. He has been lauded and criticized for efforts ranging from to circa 2015 battles in Donbas to the heroic defense of Kyiv to the bloody, Soviet-style battle of attrition in Bakhmut.

Now he has reportedly initiated a two-pronged effort in the sense that Ukraine has gone on the counter offensive in several sectors, including local counter-offensive efforts north of Avdiivka, but these efforts--including in the southern sector of the Kupiansk front, appear to have been short lived. In part this is due to the fact that the armed forces have also been forced to attempt to pump in reinforcements to save Avdiivka and prevent defenders stuck in what is essentially hell from being cut off.

Various war bloggers and sources have indicated that Ukrainians lines are collapsing and a pullout or pell-mell retreat is either under way or soon will be. It is slightly too early to assume this is taking place, but there is no doubt that Russian forces are taking key ground and forces Ukrainian forces are indeed in danger of a route.

This is a developing situation--and it is literally changing by the hour.

Yes, Russia has taken massive losses in terms of troops and tanks. But there unfortunately appears to be a method to the madness. We will update soon with a focus on the front, but the Deepstate UA map on view rather says it all. That said, hit the link here and check the comparative maps from the summer and now, as these will be shown in the Patreon version of this article here: https://www.patreon.com/TheCornerswithPrestonSmith

Otherwise, hold tight this weekend, Slava Ukrainii and God bless.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming, more or less (and yes, the roundup comes shortly), which means...

Which means let's talk investigations.

Or maybe... let's talk science. While sometimes debated, other times made a bit over-complicated, there are arguably five steps that make up the scientific method. These are:

• Observation
• The hypothesis
• The prediction based on the hypothesis
• And experiment to prove or disprove said prediction
• Analysis of results

Arguably, skipping (or ignoring) the above steps immediately lands a researcher (or scientist) in the world of pseudo-science. In the vernacular we could even go so far as to say that those who ignore said steps are in a sense “mad scientists” (or in the world of medicinal research… “quacks”).

In short, sticking to the above steps leads to discovery, enlightenment, progress. In some cases—as we all know—it even saves lives. This is why such steps are applied to a wide variety of disciplines, ranging from the purely academic to medical research to business R&D.

But when it comes to investigations—i.e. paid for “research” into real world white collar crime, corruption and theft—not so much.

In fact, the typical “steps” I’ve seen as an investigator are usually somewhat different (and yes, this is anecdotal, but it is also bases on a combined two decades investigative work). They run kinda-sorta as follows:

• Incidence after the fact—in other words the “observation” that money has gone missing/that information has been stolen, etc.
• Accusation (which is often far, far removed from hypothesis).
• A plan for retribution (i.e. –just what we are going to do to the assumed perpetrator and what we need to do it).
• The investigation (i.e. –not an experiment, but an ordered gathering of facts, often within the very strict confines of the ordering party).
• The report (yes, here analysis is involved, but only if the investigator is truly willing to speak truth to power—i.e. to the client who is paying the bill).
• If not found, a demand for a smoking gun.
• If found, much debate on whether to use smoking gun, as smoking guns are dangerous.
• Frustration or celebration, depending on whether the person who was supposed to get it actually got it in the end.

Doesn’t sound too scientific, eh?

It’s not. And apart from not being optimal, it’s not cost-effective either.

Yet there is another way. In fact, I’ll get into this in my post next week, but the first and absolutely critical piece of advice to victims and clients both?

Calm down. No matter how much you want to prosecute, not matter what you believe, know, think or assume, the key to success can be summed up as follows.

Justice (and revenge) is best served cold.

Now for the week in crime.

Albania

Or should we also say Germany, Italy, the UK? For if the drug busts in the last update were disconcerting (or reassuring), Europe-wide raids that nabbed 59 Albanian narco traffickers left little doubt as to who has attempted to move in and replace the various gangs and narco-cartels disrupted by the Sky ECC encryption break through, which has in fact been ongoing for two years.

In fact, this is not the first time that this same gang has been hit, with Italian police and Europol working together since 2020 under the code name “Muratore” and then combining forces last year to seize USD 2.9 mln in drugs and also make arrests. However, together with the recent February raid, the total number of arrested stands at 80, with Europol noting that the gang smuggled heroin, cocaine, hashish and marijuana to Germany and Spain using “cars with double bottoms or secret compartments.”

Interesting is that the gang, which was primarily made up of Italians and Germans smuggled drugs primarily from Italy and Albania to Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, which means moving drugs in the opposite direction of what has often been a trend of cocaine first hitting ports in Spain, Belgium or The Netherlands before being redistributed in the “Old EU” or in the CEE region.

What can you say? Evil seeps in one way or another.

Bulgaria

Want to know what Bulgarians are sick of?

Elections.

This is understandable, as Bulgaria went through an endless series of elections over the past few years, prompted primarily by the failure (again) of the GERB party, which still somehow always manages to return to power.

In the end this meant compromise, and it resulted back in June 2023 in the CC-DB and GERB-UDF coalitions forming a “non-coalition” government to be governed with rotating prime ministers.

Which, all things considered, is the first of it’s kind in Bulgaria (and would be just about anywhere else). This means that Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov (CC-DB) “rotates” with GERB-UDF’s Mariya Gabriel. Gabriel will come in in March, and GERB supporters, according to the Bulgarian News Agency, expect big things.

But hey, nobody quite redefines optimism like GERB.

Then again, nobody wants or is optimistic when it comes to early elections… so there is that. In fact, even former Teflon Prime Minister Boyko Boryssov (GERB) has said that, based on how the parties get along (not) that Bulgaria should probably hold early elections, but then again…

He doesn’t really want those either.

But hey, Gabriel is a former EU commissioner so maybe there really is room for optimism.

Only back in 2017—when she was actually trying to get the EU job—Gabriel was exposed as having rented an apartment in Lozenets, Sofia for only EUR 200 a month, which saved her some EUR 20,000 over 32 months. The deal allegedly came to fruition through… the GERB party, which owned the apartment and gave her a discount. Which she allegedly did not disclose.

So…

Okay.

Tomorrow is a new day. Starting in March. For each of us. For Bulgaria and for Gabriel too.

Czech Republic

Add Czech farmers to the list of disgruntled men of the soil, as they will join Polish, Slovak, Hungarian Lithuanian and Latvian farers in a protest Feb. 22 over cheap imports from Ukraine.

This has been a long-running issue in Poland and Slovakia, especially, and don’t expect farmer complaints to fall on deaf ears, as the joint appeal for EU intervention is being directed to EU Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojchiechowski.

Farmers want compensation, less bureaucracy, subsidy transparency and real control over Ukrainian grain heading for the EU.

The farmers have described themselves as “desperate.”

Ukraine wants weapons, money and support. It seems pretty desperate too. But yeah, we’ve said that.

Meanwhile, the Czech military budget will “soar”—which is  not unexpected under the leadership of former military man, Prime Minister Petr Fiala—to USD 7.7 bln by 2028. This is more than a 9 percent increase, and it mostly comes on the back of a decision to purchase 24 Lockheed Martin F-35s, which should help bolster NATO against the Russian threat.

But if jets, upkeep, training and military expenditure goes the way it usually does… Consider this a conservative estimate.

Kosovo-Serbia

As noted (until Yours Truly has turned blue in the face) it takes two to tango in Kosovo and Serbia, and although it’s tough to give Serbia the benefit of a doubt, recent moves by Kosovo to ban Serbian currency—and even seize it—has angered pretty much everyone. An example? As reported by BNNBloomberg Feb. 15, Kosovo police seized some USD 37,000 worth of dinars (and a vehicle) bound for ethnic-Serb welfare and pension recipients in Kosovo. Kosovo has also blocked the re-running of elections for local mayors in ethnic Serb districts in North Kosovo, blocked voting booths in Kosovo that would have enabled ethnic Serbs to vote in Serbian elections without having to travel, given ethnic Serbs hell over IDs and forced license-plate registration (also in the runup to Serbian elections) and basically now irritated not only US officials but even EU negotiators to no end.

Perhaps this has become a battle of wills between long-time Serbian power figure and current President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti. And perhaps Kurti has somewhat succeeded in convincing the EU to come down on Serbia to recognize Kosovo as an independent state (despite also blocking the 2013 agreement to create a Community of Serb Municipalities in North Kosovo to give ethnic Serbs more say).

But hey—without ignoring, condoning or relegating to the abstract the horrors of the war in Kosovo (which took place more than two decades ago—ethnic Serbs are people too.

Meanwhile, various experts are once again worried about serious violence in the Balkans. Which is kind of the norm.

Cue, horns, weddings, gunshots and barriers at the border.

In other words spring is in the air.

Montenegro

Has Montenegro finally gotten serious about organized crime? Hard to say. As opposed to Slovakia (see below), Minister of Justice Andrej Milovic has pressed to hold accused gang members for up to three years in prison during ongoing trials. Which means, yes, prior to a verdict.

This does raise questions with regard to human rights, but bearing in mind the long spate of violence (as in killings and torture by the Kavac and Skaljari gangs), having these guys on the loose is… a worry. Meanwhile, the government’s three months in office has resulted in scores of drug busts, hundreds of accused on serious charges ranging from narco-trafficking to the slave trade to corruption and more.

But three years without a verdict?

Yep that’s quite a long time.

Poland

Poland—like many countries—has a Pegasus spyware problem, and if it is to be believed, it has long had  Pegasus spyware problem in that the government used the program to spy on opposition politicians, journalists and possibly even criminals

The question now is just how far this went, as current Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who heads the KO-led coalition government that ousted the long-reigning Law-and-Justice (PiS) party has in the past accused PiS of using the spyware to nefarious ends.

Pegasus was obtained by various government in Europe and North and South America to infiltrate mobile phones as a form of all-encompassing spyware. Which means the user of the spyware sees and hears and records everything, and the user of the mobile phone remains oblivious. As in completely. We have made much of this subject in past blog posts and vlogs, but there you have it.

Yet this week it again came to the fore as Tusk publicly said that the list of those hacked was “very long,” and interestingly he gave this statement during a press conference together with President Andrzej Duda—who has long been seen as a PiS ally.  Tusk noted that information on Pegasus hacking was being provided to the president—and that he has plenty of proof.

As far as Duda’s response? At least up to press time… mum was rather the word. Meanwhile, a Parliamentary commission is expected to begin Feb. 19.

Slovakia

You know that genius move by the Robert Fico-SMER led coalition in Slovakia to “reform” corruption laws? [Ed. Note—see related article.], well, it has not gone down well with either the EU or… ratings agencies. Scope Ratings lowered Slovakia’s rating from A+ to A, as cited by the Slovak Spectator and Dzennik N Daily, with the ratings agency anticipating “indirect impact” on the automotive industry. Now an “A” is still pretty good by any shape or measure, but the EU is also not happy, with the European Commission discussing sanctions. None of this comes as good news, as Slovakia has already cost itself some EUR 900 mln in recovery funds—or at least for the time being these have been delayed.

But this could get worse, with European Commissioner for Justice Djdier Reynders having taken an interest in said reforms and noting that the changes—which include dismantling the Slovak Special Prosecutor’s Office, reducing sentences (and making them conditional) for corruption—which means, hey, they might be tougher for non-SMER folk) and not only reducing the statute of limitations for white-collar crime, but also for… rape could do “irreparable damage” to the country’s legal system.

Then again, it sounds like this is the goal. Just the closure of the Special Prosecutor’s Office would likely undermine well more than 100 white-collar and corruption cases—including key cases that go back to SMER politicians and it’s previous (and quite long) hold on power in Slovakia. These are to be redistributed among through already overburdened prosecutors that may or may not have the background (or the time) to even become familiar with said cases, much less prosecute them.

But hey, it gets better: Fico is not one to rest on his laurels, and this week he nominated none other than Pavol G., son of the controversial former top cop, Tibor G., to head the secret service. In truth, Tibor G. was the first pick, but he’s out of the running, as Slovak President Zuzana Caputova, who may attempt to veto reforms, publicly stated she was not thrilled by having an indicted official run the secret service. Check out the previous article if you want the goop on Tibor G., as this is enlightening. And the word on Pavol G.? Well, he has a temper, at least according to the Slovak press, having allegedly threatened a prosecutor and generally said not to be particularly fond of judges.

But hey, if you want to create a banana republic, you do need a few bananas.

That's it for this week, brothas.

But once again, hang in there.

And also once again, Slava Ukrainii and God bless.

Map courtesy of DeepState UA.