Dark days for Ukraine, EU funding package be damned...

The day is Sunday, Feb. 4, 2024. In other words, the war in Ukraine has now lasted no less than 710 days.

Or, if we start counting on Feb. 20, 2015, we've come to nine years, 11 months, two weeks and one day.

And on this Sunday the New York Times publishes yet another feature about how Russian troops "come in waves" in a never attending attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. Meanwhile, the country's top general is rumored to soon lose his job, the US appears no closer to another military aid package and, despite the cost, Russia is making gains across several fronts.

Nearly two years of all-out war that has resulted in an ugly stalemate. And while some may claim Ukraine is not losing, it is not winning either.

Which begs the question: is an ugly reality seeping into the European consciousness? And are the politicians in the EU finally waking up?

Or is Ukraine simply being screwed over.

Or is it a bit of both.

For there is talk, and there are facts. The talk sees renewed vigor in Germany, renewed worry in France. The EU forcing even Hungary to come on board when it comes to military aid (with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico crying foul along the way).

That means EUR 50 bln in aid from Europe. Which is a big deal.

Only that is not for military aid, but for life behind the lines.

And for all of the talk of Ukraine's being in desperate need of ammunition, the European Union has failed (miserably) to supply one million artillery shells to Ukraine in 2023. Or actually, maybe we (or they) are fudging a bit, as now, according to various press, this one-million shell deadline was slated for March 2024. That said, according to current schedules by that date 524,00 shells, give or take, will be delivered.

And if we are talking about the EU, there is first, Germany, and… there are tanks. Leopards to be exact. Or to be more exact, not quite as many Leopards as we thought. If various news reports are to be believed, the true numbers here are difficult ascertain (although in truth they are not), but whatever Leopards were delivered, they were not exactly delivered on schedule, especially if Ukraine’s failed summer offensive is concerned.

By August 2023, according to Business Insider, Germany had fallen far short of the 110 Leopards that were promised. In that the country had delivered… 10.

Which may well be true. Yet in fact, the story is slightly more complicated and the infamous 10-tank story is likely not completely accurate: Germany did agree in 2023 to send 88 Leopard 1 tanks and 80 of the far more capable Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, with some publications, such as The Defense Post, claiming that Germany sent 18 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in March 2023.

And in order to give Germany its fair shake in the matter, all it takes is a glance at official government website that notes military aid delivered to Ukraine at: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/search/military-support-ukraine-2054992.

Here the full picture becomes far more evident, and it is at least somewhat more flattering. Almost EUR 16 bln has been allocated to Ukraine in terms of current and future military aid. There in fact is a long list of equipment marked as delivered on the site, ranging from armored personal carriers to a wide range of ammunition to ambulance to… tanks.

Of which, officially, 30 Leopard 1s have been delivered, with this complimented by… 18 Leopard 2s.

Which is something. Just as 524,000 shells to Ukraine is something.

Only it’s clearly not enough. And at any rate there is consistency in statements from all sides that the country that fighting has been hard, and at least when it comes to the vaunted Leopard 2s,  there are hardly any left.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is holding on, using advanced battle tanks primarily as reactionary, yet (due to Russian drone/Lancet capabilities) long-range artillery. This at a time—and yes, this message has been hammered home all over the press—Ukraine is running short of everything.

Yet what has not been hammered home—at least not deeply enough—is the current fragility of the Ukrainian front. As stated here (and on the Three Things vlog), despite setbacks in the summer, Russia has reverted to a war economy (which is likely the one economy that country knows how to do). According to the UK Ministry of Defense, it is currently replacing tanks as fast as it is losing them—possibly up to 100 a month. Yes, Russia continues to through green and under-supplied reserves into pitched battles, but this also goes back to the very soul of Russian warfare (which means, yes, it should have been long expected). More importantly, Russia is pressing hard in the very locations predicted on this site. Kupiansk (with prodding at Kharkhiv), Avdiivka and Bakhmut. It is retaking ground, having already pushed back the “gains” made during the misguided summer offensive, and leaks about the coming dismissal of the to-the-point (and it appears, speak-truth-to-power) Ukrainian Chief of Staff Gen. Valery Zaluzhny have even been reportedly by that scoopiest of websites… CNN.

So are there upsides?

Yes. In particular there is one. Russia has had its nose bloodied. Badly.

And in truth, when it comes to other upsides...  maybe there are a few more. And maybe we’ll get into those in another editorial. But for now the reality is overbearing. These are dark days for Ukraine, dark days for the reputation of the EU and Nato, and yes, this does once again cast a shadow with regard to the reliability of the West. A long, stark shadow that represents what happens when promises are not kept.

In other words, torture and suffering, kidnapping and death. The details behind big, symbolic (yet largely unsaid) words...

Like genocide.

Which in this desperate and bloody world is exactly what happens…

When you turn your back on a friend.

Photo of a mortar team on the Zaporizhzhia front by the National Guard of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.