Friday musings from a detective (in Central Europe)…

To say this has been an eventful week would be putting it mildly (and expect a full CEE crime rundown by Tuesday), but between standard-drills case work and somewhat less-than-standard-drills political analyses, the following made me think:

Cash (or the lack of it) and the psychological effect on grift. A rather unexpected conversation with a major CEE retailer went as follows (and I am doing my best here to remember this word-for-word): “Society truly should thank retailers for curbing crime in Central Europe.”

Honestly, this was a bit of a head spin, but I heard him out… and his arguments went as follows:

"Twenty years ago everything in the region was cash-based. There were not credit cards, and their have never been paper checks. You could get ripped off at the kantors (currency exchange kiosks), organized crime was rampant and I must have been shortchanged a hundred times in various shops. Now the average person does not even carry cash. Yes, banks issue credit cards, but retail is what made this work. Retail innovations. Card scanners. Quick checkouts. There are small, convenience shops now that have no cashier at all. This metamorphosis has proven that cash is not needed. If you remove cash from the equation, you cannot be shortchanged. Employees cannot dip their hand into the till. Off-the-books crime like paying for drugs or prostitutes cannot take place. Remove cash and you also remove such temptation—and society takes a step toward honesty. Retail has been key to the transformation of Central Europe—you must admit this.”

!!!

Two points here: I desperately would like to give this man credit for the quote, but he refused, as apparently corporate policy comes into play with regard to public statements. Second, this guy is… a freakishly great salesman.

And yes, the general theme is worth a ponder. Governments do not want cash transactions… as the temptation for taxpayers to fib is clearly higher. Some, such as Italy have severely limited cash transactions, and this has definitely impacted organized crime.

That said… there are a few bones to pick. A cash transaction does not make you vulnerable to identity theft. Or the “theft” of personal information by credit card companies (and others) that identify your wants and needs. And it allows the “little guy” to negotiate from both a buyer and seller position (which is helpful, I can assure you), whereas electronic transactions tend to be far less flexible. And you eliminate hidden tips at certain restaurants.

But the passion. The fervour. No wonder this guy is a top mover and shaker in retail.

I wish I were more like that.

The average citizen still does not understand drones…

Once again (and I’ve heard this many times over the past few years) Yours Truly was told that surveillance is too expensive (yes, he was referring to our rates) and that it should just be conducted with a drone.

Well, erm… Nope.

That is so far from the current reality that it is, frankly, laughable. (And if it does become a reality… Lord help us).

Why?

First, drones are noisy. Second, people are conditioned to react to little buzzes. They look around. They look up. Maybe this is some genetic predisposition that allowed our ancestors to survive insect-borne diseases like malaria. You hear a buzz, you look around. You get ready to slap.

Ok, maybe men are less like this. In fact, it is far easier to conduct surveillance on a businessman (whose mind may be occupied by his next round of golf for all I know) than it is on a businesswoman. Call me a chauvinist if you like, but it is what it is. I don’t know why. But women pay attention. They hear a buzz, they will slap.

But even more importantly, there is the question of range and speed. If a wayward husband picks up a pretty, young thing and heads for the lakes… just how long do you think a civilian drone is going to keep up? And how far?

Now do drones have any use in surveillance…

Well, yes. But that’s complicated, and maybe I’ll save it for another blog.

The Vory are still here…

Years ago (prior to COVID) I covered the thieves-in-law/vory v zakone in depth. It was a bit of a hobby for me… yes, I was fascinated. These guys played hardball in a different fashion than the “businessman” mafias out of Russia (a la the Tambovs, Malyshevs or Solntsevskaya). Then they were targeted by both the US and Russia… and they moved West—both into Ukraine and into Western Europe. Now there are some who have stated that the war in Ukraine has basically put an end to the Vory, the Common Fund, etc.

Hmmm. There could be an argument there, but it appears that the vory always find a way, as evidenced by a mid-June bust of a vory meeting in Greece that saw 13 arrested. Details on that raid are still slow to emerge, but clearly they were up to no good.

(Which means, yes, I do know a bit more than I’m letting on, but let’s wait a few weeks and see how the story plays out).

The NATO summit and Ukrainian realities

This week’s NATO summit has resulted in the highly assertive (but still quite vague) statement that Ukraine will one day join NATO. As in this will happen. One-hundred percent guaranteed.

It is assumed that this promise is there to 1) support beleaguered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky 2) give hope to the Ukrainian people 3) corral members of NATO prior to elections that US President Joe Biden (if he remains a candidate) will likely lose, etc. But highly important is that NATO is seeking an answer to the Ukrainian-NATO conundrum of its own creation—this being that it has long held the line that Ukraine will join NATO once the war is over. Which basically gave Russian President Vladimir Putin incentive to… never end the war.

Put more simply, outgoing Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukrainian NATO membership is “irreversible.” He also called China a “decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.”

Big words.

The fact is that there have been plenty of big words since 2022 invasion. Now let’s take a look at a few semi-specifics.

Nothing is irreversible. And this is especially true when you have an outgoing secretary general doing the talking, as well as a probably outgoing US president.

Money (a new tranche of EUR 40 bln has been promised) is important, but what it buys is also important. This week was the first time that the current ineffectiveness of US precision shells and missiles was brought out into the open. This has actually long been evident, but fairly hushed up, as even US HIMARS have been rendered far less effective due to Russia’s ability to jam tracking/guidance/GPS frequencies. Likewise, there have long been questions with regard to whether or not equipment and ammunition sent to Ukraine is not already (and intentionally) obsolete. Delays with regard to Abrams tanks were at one time put down to the need to strip down tanks and remove top secret technology in case said tanks were captured or the remains of a destroyed tank fell into Russian hands. Certain types of ammunition sent to Ukraine had the slight taint of “we need to clear this off of our shelves because we are replacing it anyway,” and then there is the argument (put forward by some US military types) that old-fashioned, unguided 155 howitzer shells are frankly where its at.

And we also might consider a the statement by French Army Chief of Staff Gen. Pierre Schill that seemed to downplay drones on the battlefield and imply that their dominance will be short-lived.

In fact, that statement was somewhat taken out of context, as he was primarily referring to inexpensive, home-made drones or first-person view drones, but still…

Put this altogether and the West still appears…

Troublingly distracted.

Which brings me to three points also worth a ponder.

First, I recently had a conversation with a special forces-type on leave in Poland. I asked him about drones and raids. He was still visibly shaken, and that subject touched a nerve. First, he said that movement is… a good way to get killed. Hiding underground best keeps a soldier safe from drones, but that is not always possible. He added that there are different types of “buzz.” And when the buzz of an anti-personnel drone is in the air, he and others pull out… shotguns, as running for your life is simply not an option.

Which is one of the most disturbingly frightening descriptions I’ve heard in quite some time.

Second, scanning Russian blogs and vlogs and the reaction to the NATO statement is equally troubling, as this is coupled with a NATO decision that will theoretically enable Poland to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine. As Polish-based anti-missile defense is assumed to be based on Patriot systems, this theoretically creates a 25 kilometer buffer zone on the Polish border. Which could be gradually expanded (by placing Patriots and other defense systems within that zone. Expand that enough times and Western Ukraine is in the buffer zone. Then you have Donetsk and Russian gains in the “Eastern buffer zone.” Finally you have Kyiv and central Ukraine. This results in a Ukraine partitioned into three such zones.

I have to admit, I did not like reading and listening to that “theory.” It is troublingly realistic. And we only have to glance at Bosnia, Kosovo and the like to see equally troubling similarities. This take also easily “justifies” Putin’s strategy in the minds of many, many Russians (and remember the vast majority does support the war).

Which means (taking into consideration points one and two) that NATO and the West needs to concentrate. Platitudes, promises, obsolete or soon-to-be weapons or delays are not going to get it done.  And remember, only 55 Leopards were delivered by the end of last summer, at which time the Ukrainian counter offensive was already lost. Holding on to obsolete mantras (overweight tanks, for example) or dismissing battlefield realities (cheap drones) is also not going to help.

Russia on the other hand is adapting. While there are now real questions with regard to maintaining troop numbers in the face of massive losses—as well as that of mobile armour—this is not the same army that was routed a bit more than a year ago in Kharkiv. US military are grudgingly admitting that Russia is ahead with regard to jamming technology. And hypersonic missiles. And on the ground, close fire support, which practically did not exist early in the war, has become the norm, as has targeted drone reconnaissance prior to such strikes and ground advances.

In short, the Russian military is far, far from perfect, but it is getting better. And this is frightening indeed.

Finally, the third point. Zelensky is indeed beleaguered, but the Ukrainian government and military have to do better. This gets into difficult themes, such as transparency, organization, air defense—and morale. Yet the fact is that in this day and age, you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. In fact, you can fool very few people even some of the time, which is evidenced by talk among Ukrainians themselves.

This has been a much longer blog post than planned (especially for a Friday), but have a quick look at the following post on “X” by this “sister of a warrior” in Ukraine. Devana touches on very real aspects of the war from a very Ukrainian point of view. And she makes very good points—especially with regard to air defense.

You might even support her on Patreon. Posts such as hers are worth it.

https://x.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1811542987979083800?t=1DN6uNjAGK3_0E_wbm3tRQ&s=07

Preston Smith is a licensed detective/risk investigator based in Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl or through the website www.cddi.pl .

 

Photo of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden at the 2024 Nato Summit courtesy of U.S. Department of State from United States, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.