Pulling the rug out from under the Ukrainians...

Some have noticed--and some have even contacted me privately--that The Corners has been silent of late.

There have been a number of reasons for this silence. Primarily, your favorite consulting detective has been swamped with work (litigation support can be like that). Also, for quite some time--and this included the weeks prior to the inauguration of Donald Trump--the news in Ukraine was all but unbearable.

Which meant that yes, I was hoping for a true silver lining. Too much bad news begins to sound defeatist, and although the plan was to go back to crime and mafia coverage, the collective We behind this blog needed a break.

Obviously, during that time not only the situation in Ukraine, but the world has barreled into no less than a paradigm shift. The US appears to have turned not only on Ukraine, but also on long-term allies. Deal-making with Russia has become priority, but this has also included cutting off weapons and financial backing; cutting off intelligence aid and even pressuring private companies to stop providing satellite services crucial to Ukraine's defense.

And all of this over...  (and yes, this appears to be the best description) a failed business deal that, unbelievably, took place in real time on national and international TV.

Obviously, much has been written on the above. But what is now being written is a possible, full-on disaster at Kursk, which would has been de facto aided and abetted by a US decision to cut off intelligence sharing and satellite transmissions at a time that possible up to 10,000 Ukrainian personnel are at risk of full encirclement.

And that is putting it lightly. Among said forces--which should already be considered trapped--are Ukrainian elite units. Said forces are also likely split and unable to cover to each other's aid. The current escape route may be less than 500 meters wide--which is not escape route at all--and they have been effectively blinded with not by a lack of access to US government information and satellites, but also by the US government preventing private US companies from providing said information. (Feel free to read more here:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-breaks-ukrainian-lines-kursk-123115847.html. )

This (and other moves) has been described as a necessary pop across the nose to bring the Ukrainians to heel and to the table. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump may well have finally realized that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not so easy to corral, and he has threatened Russia with massive economic sanctions to do the same.

For some this may seem fair. It is not.

It is grotesque.

The battlefield reality is that the Ukrainians cannot see, cannot target, cannot use drones or anticipate further attacks. Perhaps the Kursk counteroffensive was from the beginning misplaced, as it has little to no value strategically (although it likely has cost Russia between 40,000 to 60,000 in terms of casualties) and the true odds of the Kursk salient becoming a bargaining chip for occupied territories, for example, in Donetsk, were minimal.

Kursk as of mid January 2025:

Kursk as of March 9, 2025:

Now, however, at a time when war has become frighteningly high-tech--when drones rule the battlefield and one false move along an attack route or evacuation route means certain death--Ukrainian forces have been driven back to a reality more akin to that of soldiers fighting during the First World War.

Or worse, for at least during the First World War primitive reconnaissance was possible by plane or even hot air balloon. So perhaps the Ukrainians, who have shown incredible mettle, creativity and technological ability have been handicapped back to pre WWI levels--and all with the stroke of a presidential pen.

Which could result in the death, imprisonment or torture of 10,000 men.

Which is actually murder. US negotiating strategy or not.

All was not lost...

Some of the more hard-line MAGAs will take umbrage at the above. And they may add that Ukraine was losing the war, and the war must be stopped as quickly (and ruthlessly) as necessary to prevent more needless death.

While there is an argument for the latter, there must be method within the madness. But as for the former, the truth of the matter was actually changing. For what was not being written is that Ukraine had quietly once again been on the offensive--not in Kursk, but, against seemingly all odds, in Toretsk and outside of Pokrovsk.

Long-term readers will remember that Pokrovsk has long been on the radar of The Corners (and yes, that means longer than the "major publications" in the West). Pokrovsk was seen as a vital logistics hub key to Ukraine's defenses as far north as Kupiansk.

The Pokrovsk to Kupiansk "line" as of March 8, 2025:

While it is true that Russian forces have long been knocking on the door of that city (and that they have pushed hard across multiple contact points both north and south of that city), a promise made by a key source has somehow held true. For in his words (and I will no describe him in detail) he stated:

"Pokrovsk will not fall."

Yet it has not. Even though time and time again the death knell was ringing loud and clear.

And, incredibly, Ukrainian forces at both Pokrovsk and Toretsk were/are pushing back.

But first, more reality...

The above means (or at least meant) that yes, somehow, there was a silver lining--even if this was only temporary. But a closer gander at US international politics/Russian relations also deserves at least some attention. Peeling back the sheen of propaganda (and for the moment turning away from the unfolding nightmare at Kursk), even within the short time frame since the televised debacle that was to be the signing of a peace/rare element rights between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump, there have been promises, factual errors and misstatements that could well impact the future.

But don't take this from me. Here are a few quotes from the ISW's March 6, 2025 report:

• "Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6."
  

So much for a peace deal in a day... or ever. Which does make the logical observer just what Zelenskyy was meant to sign in a deal that would cost Ukraine 50 percent of it's rare elements rights for...

Nothing.

• "Russian officials will likely take advantage of the suspension of US military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to spread a longstanding Russian information operation meant to falsely portray Russian victory as inevitable."

This is already happening. In fact, the Russian press has been pushing this forever and a day. The ISW is a bit slow here, but hey, we'll forgive them this time around, as while quite conservative in reporting, that organization is typically quite accurate and correct.

• "The Kremlin welcomed a Trump administration official's recent comments mischaracterizing Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a 'proxy war,' and Russian media portrayed the statement as an admission that the United States is a participant in the war."

Now this is disconcerting. Don't let it slip past either.

In other words, read that again:

"The Kremlin welcomed a Trump administration official's recent comments mischaracterizing Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a 'proxy war'...

"And Russian media portrayed the statement as an admission that the United States is a participant in the war."

That's right. A statement from the US has effectively defined the US backing of Ukraine as US participation.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it very clear that 1) he plans to give nothing back and 2) the invasion across all fronts is in fact not slowing down.

But back to the silver lining. Or what remains of it.

Pokrovsk, Toretsk and our man at the front...

In truth, "silver lining" may be taking this too far, but news reports (and horrified reports from Russian bloggers) began to appear close to two weeks ago that spoke of renewed Ukrainian advances near Pokrovsk and even into Russian held sections of Toretsk. Both locations, but especially Pokrovsk, have long been deemed as keys to the future by both Ukraine and Russia, and arguably Russia has long sent its best troops to Pokrovsk in order to finally cripple the Pokrovsk-Kupiansk logistics/defensive line for good.

And at least up until today this has failed.

In fact, during a meeting held only days ago with this correspondent a key source that requested full anonymity stated the following:

"Russia has run out of troops. They no longer have the men--we were on the verge of winning."

Such a statement may seem jaw-dropping, especially considering the horrendously difficult battlefield conditions over the past months, but the source added the following:

"Yes, they still find men, but these are drunks, drug addicts, literally homeless people that they pick up off the street back in Russia," said the source. "They get six days training and they are sent to the front.

"Here they are given a point on a map and told to go there and dig in--understand that this is not within the normal framework of an advance, but they are literally given a point on the map and told to get there and dig," the source said. "If they meet our forces, they are all killed. If they do not meet our forces they dig in, but up until now we have been able to see them and meet them and stop them."

The source also confirmed the advances at Pokrovsk and into Toretsk, stating that these advances are very recent, and that they have taken place over the past 10 days.

Pokrovsk to Toretsk as of March 7, 2025:

When asked whether or not this was down to new tactics or the enabling of younger (but battle-hardened) Ukrainian officers, the source did not comment, but he did again repeat the same statement: "Russia has run out of quality troops. We are on the verge of winning."

Yet here the silver lining ends. The source, who has been wounded at least three times, but who has never wavered in his belief that Ukraine will win the war did admit incredulity and shock with regard to the US's "new direction" on Ukraine. When asked about the near-term and long-term outlook, he simply shook his head with a "no comment" that told plenty.

Based on that conversation, this correspondent reached out privately to trusted sources--and the above-mentioned source's statements were echoes, with a second source noting that although Russian forces have made gains, they have tended to make gains north or south of key targets while not actually achieving said targets. There is clearly some truth in this in that a map report would in general refer to many of the same cities that The Corners has named over the past 18 months: Kupiansk, Borova, Konstantianyvka, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and even Robotyne are still either embattled, only partially taken or have not been taken at all, despite the well-published Russian advantages in terms of artillery, drones and, at least until recently, men who rolled forth in zombie waves for months on end.

Which does mean--if the most cynical take on this war is accepted in full--that if the US has intentionally been fighting a proxy war (in the words of Putin, "to the last Ukrainian"), it has been morbidly successful.

Yet this is to assume that the previous administration, headed by President Joe Biden, actually had a plan. And if this was in fact the plan--which the Russian press believes to have been confirmed by Trump administration statements--then this also means (in a purely cynical world) that Trump and co. is willing to let said advantage go to waste.

Reality: it's not so simple...

That all said (and maybe partially done), I don't personally do not believe that the Biden administration was attempting anything coherent other than quite vaguely (and even less effectively than was let on) supporting Ukraine as conservatively and non-offensively as possible. And blunders, such as the push for the counter offensive in Zaporizhzhia, should not be forgotten.

And neither do I buy into the "Trump is a Russian asset" line. In fact, the US turning its back on Ukraine in truth appears to be shockingly no more than this administrations determination to kill every single Biden-backed program (both at home and abroad) by madly ripping out said programs by the very roots.

MAGA's may very well agree with that last statement. Non-MAGAs but right-leaning Republicans angered by a wide range of domestic issues ranging from uncontrolled immigration to gangs coming across the border to the fentanyl epidemic to woke policies and the trans movement may also agree may also agree--and when it comes to domestic issues, they have a point.

But there is a larger point at stake. The unilateral cutting off of access to satellite information and intelligence may well lead to the deaths of 10,000 in Kursk; the loss of not only the tiny bargaining chip Ukraine had left; the elimination of a major portion of Ukraine's most effective and hardened troops and a tremendous strategic victory for Russia at a stage in the war where in fact true Russian victories were hard to come by.

In lighter, editorial terms, this is called snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

In reality, this is murder, and it will allow Russia to accelerate its prosecution of genocide and the war.

With just a stroke of a pen.

Somebody in power truly needs to think about that. Not Putin, mind you. He likely cannot believe his good fortune, as if the current blackout remains, Russia will not be stopped.

This means Kursk will fall. Then Pokrovsk will fall. Then the entire line from Pokrovsk to Kupiansk will fall, as will the immediate line of defense south.

And when that happens... perhaps Trump will still attempt to negotiate a ceasefire. With shouts and threats of sanctions or what have you.

 

We'll see how that works out.

 

Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.

Maps are courtesy of DeepStateUA.

Photo description: Residential building in Zaporizhzhia after Russian drone attack in the evening of 1 March 2025. One person was injured. Original description: Російські загарбники продовжують терор мирного населення Запоріжжя. Вечір суботи, перший день весни запам'ятався містянам черговим ворожим обстрілом спального району. Внаслідок влучання по житловому будинку зайнялася пожежа, яка охопила близько 800 квадратних метрів.

– Основним завдання рятувальників було не допустити поширення вогню на сусідні будівлі. Пожежу вдалося локалізувати. Наразі комунальники вже працюють над відновленням пошкоджених будинків, зокрема закривають вибиті внаслідок вибуху вікна, – повідомив Іван Федоров, голова Запорізької ОДА.

Поранення отримала 31-річна жінка. Вона доставлена до лікарні. Медики надають постраждалій всю необхідну допомогу.

Станом на 23:20 пожежу ліквідовано – повідомляє ДСНС. На місці події продовжують працювати слідчо-оперативні групи, вибухотехніки, криміналістичні лабораторії, патрульна поліція та екстрені служби. Вони ліквідовують наслідки руйнівної атаки та документують шкоду, завдану ворогом.

Photo credit: Date: 1 March 2025; Source: Підступна атака в перший день весни: ворог вдарив по житловому кварталу Запоріжжя/Author:  Zaporizhzhia Regional State Administration.