Putin's Trumpian error--and Russia's looming strategic defeat

No introduction this week, apart from a question:

Could Ukraine’s darkest days be coming to an end?

Even prior to headlines citing Trump's reversal on Ukraine (and a week prior to July 14 news that Patriots are again headed back to Ukraine), this is exactly the thought that struck me during a brief check-in conversation with a Ukrainian officer fresh back from the front.

For when I asked him "how tough is tough," his response was blunt, but surprisingly optimistic.

“Yes, the situation is very difficult," he said. "At each point of contact the fighting is desperate—but Russian gains are coming only in terms of meters. A large gain is 200 meters, and they are losing thousands of men."

Then he said:

“We can still win this.”

This, to be equally blunt, was not what I expected to hear. But is is that hard to believe? Yes. And... no.

But first the bad news--and yes, there is plenty of it. True, the message that Russia has already defeated Ukraine is in error, but it is not entirely off-point. In short, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been losing ground for months—and the news has been consistently bad since the lights were turned out by the US on Ukrainian troops and special forces back when there was still a salient in Kursk. This was the highly controversial decision by the Donald Trump administration to stop aid to Ukrainian in the wake of the justifiably infamous live press conference that went south in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was pressed to sign a mineral rights deal for a cease fire that would never happen.

Not to toot my own horn, but I noted at the time that the black out on satellite intelligence, combined with a cut in military supplies, would create an opportunity for Russia that would threaten the Pokrovsk logistics hub plus just about everything north of that all the way to Sumy.

This, unfortunately, was a prediction that I wish had never come true. The Kursk salient was almost immediately lost, and although Ukraine held of Russian attacks longer than expected, they have since made serious gains that have disrupted the long relatively intact logistics lines running from Pokrovsk to Kostiantynivka to Sloviansk and all the way up through the Borova sector to Kupiansk.

Below are comparison maps.

First a map of the entire line as of June 5, 2025: 

This is the entire front as of July 12.2025:

Below are two maps from May that show the Pokrovsk to Kupiansk logistics lines. At this time they have already been partially disrupted. 

 

This is the current line with the Ukrainian Pokrovsk logistics line in blue (note the many complete cuts in the line due to Russian advances): 

The scale of Russian advances can be seen more clearly below.

First is the Pokrovsk sector prior to the "lights out" moment in Kursk (and before Russian could then prioritize the Pokrovsk sector because the defense of Kursk was still ongoing): 

Below shows the Pokrovsk sector as of July 12. 

Moving north reveals the Kostiantynivka sector north of Pokrovsk in May. The supply line was obviously disrupted, but now Kostiantynivka is under tremendous pressure. 

The same sector as of July 12. 

Still further north, although Russian forces had reached the Oskil, the Borova to Kupiansk front was still holding relatively steady: 

Sloviansk to Borova to Kupiansk as of July 12: 

Kupiansk as of July 12 (note Russian advances north of the city): 

So to rehash: Yes, Ukraine has been losing ground ever since. And although it has held on to Pokrovsk, essentially Russian advances have completely disrupted that stronghold as a logistics point.

And yes, it became difficult to post at all. If there are any doubts, this blogger/investigator is firmly on the side of the Ukrainians… but posting on the current situation had almost seemed to become defeatist.

But a funny thing happened two weeks ago. In fact this was in the scale of the carnage, drone attacks and massive casualties that are a daily event in Ukraine. On June 25, Trump was questioned by a BBC reporter, a Ukrainian woman, Myroslava Petsa, who, herself emotional responded to a rather unexpected question from the US president when he asked: “Is your husband at the front?”

Petsa, to her credit, for a moment stopped being a reporter and stated that 1) her husband was indeed a soldier at the front and 2) that she was now based in Warsaw with her children because her husband wanted her in a safe place.

And here may well be the moment that Trump’s attitude to Ukraine finally changed.

(Stick with me now—yes, it’s perhaps a grasp, but you will soon see where I’m going).

Here Trump, surprisingly, responded: “Wow, that’s rough stuff, right? That’s tough.”

Trump then responded to questions regarding Ukrainian’s need for Patriots as follows:

“We’re going to see if we can make some available.”

“You know, they’re very hard to get. We need them too. We were supplying them to Israel, and they’re very effective — 100% effective. Hard to believe how effective. And they do want that more than any other thing, as you probably know.”

Then he added:

“That’s a very good question, and I wish you a lot of luck,” Trump told Petsa. “I mean, I can see it’s very upsetting to you.

“Say hello to your husband, OK? Thank you.”

True, in most cases such an exchange would be written off as absolutely inconsequential. The press did note this—mostly as a curiosity, as Trump’s demeanor--interested, even kind—was quite off-script, but Yours Truly also made a note to remember this for another blog?

Why?

Because US President Donald Trump is clearly quite an emotional man. And he always has been.

Forget the (sometimes quite embarrassing) tweets. Forget the boorish, ugly behavior when he was a candidate. Forget which side you are on in US politics. For this is a real estate mogul who arguably decided to run for president after he was slighted by US President Barack Obama during a White House Correspondents Dinner.

And Trump angrily ran and became president.

Yes, his first presidency was an emotional roller coaster, but—despite hardly being a young man in an ideal state of health—the real anger and determination came out during the reign of US President Joe Biden… and yes, now he’s back.

And yes, it has always appeared that he takes slights personally. And that he holds grudges.

At this point, you may be wondering if somehow this  consulting detective is going to come up with a hidden, kinder side of Trump. Maybe he quietly helps the homeless, secretly supports orphans or the like.

Well, no. About the most I’ve ever heard when it comes to Trump’s altruistic side is that ally-turned-nemesis Michael Cohen once stated that Trump is…

“Complicated.”

Which could mean anything. But is he emotional? Easily affronted. Effectively motivated by a grudge.

Yes, here let there be no doubt.

Which now brings us to his (supposedly) former buddy Vladimir Putin.

For one I’ve never bought into the “Trump-is-an-agent” conspiracies. In fact, I’ve never bought into the kompromat conspiracies, primarily because tales or even evidence of Trump in full-fledged debauchery with Russian prostitutes would be unlikely to surprise anyone and probably would be shrugged off by Trump himself as absolutely irrelevant.

Finally, tales regarding whether he truly idolized or wanted to emulate Putin are in a sense also now (hopefully) irrelevant.

But what is relevant, you ask?

Relevant is that for his own reasons Trump wanted to 1) stop the fighting and 2) be recognized for bringing the war in Ukraine to an end. He also, allegedly, desperately wanted recognition for this and… a Nobel Peace Prize.

True, any self-respecting analyst in the region could have told him: Putin was not going to make a deal. If anything Putin was bound to play Trump and his advisors like a fiddle, delay and work to hamstring the Ukrainians while mounting ever more ferocious attacks to eventually render a peace deal moot (for the Russians anyway).

Now (reportedly) even Trump apparently has begun to see this. Last week’s press reports noted an attitude shift. That Trump was disappointed. That Putin had essentially been “bullshitting” the entire time.

Which means… Putin has embarrassed him.

Which means… Trump more than likely will hold a grudge.

Which also means… Putin may well have underestimated Trump just like everyone else (Republicans included).

For once again Trump, unlike Putin… is emotional.

Which, for better for worse (and also unlike Putin) means he’s human.

Sure, it’s wait and see, but the first signs are that the US administration is back to making deals, back to resuming (at least theoretically) even the delivery of Patriot missile batteries.

Which means that now the war in Ukraine theoretically gets interesting. For the Russian economy is plagued by record-high interest rates, debt, liquidity issues and the danger of key bankruptcies in both the commodity sectors and electronics manufacturing. The Russian military continues to reckless deplete its own ranks, and once again Russian political figures are falling out of windows, and it may soon find itself in a conflict with… Azerbaijan.

And even though Ukraine is losing ground… those long-range drone strikes hurt.

Which to make a long story short means…

Ok, it’s a longshot sure.

And predicting Trump’s actions…

And counting on them…

Is likely a fool’s game.

But damn…

Ukraine could still win this.

Or perhaps more accurately...

At least on a strategic level...

Russia could still very well lose.

 

Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.

Photo courtesy of White House Rapid Response, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.