That's right, it's boxing with Thursday night fight picks: Lopez-Ortiz; Davis-Pedraza

That's right--it's a new addition to The Corners, but hey, we all need a break from the grind of war, crime and politics.

So in concert with GOG Boxing, here are last minute fight picks for tonight's fight headlined by "The Takevoer" Teofimo Lopez and tough out for anyone Jamaine Ortiz (with Keyshawn Davis-Jose Pedraza content below).

Jamaine Ortiz (17-1-1/8 KOs, no losses by KO) vs. Teofimo Lopez (19 -1 -0/13 wins by KO, no losses by KO).

The takeover continues, kinda-sorta, as Ortiz may or may not be the matchup most had been anticipating following Lopez’s upset (for many) domination of (possibly faded) at-the-time champ Josh Taylor.

THAT Lopez indeed seemed like the Lopez of old, showing off incredible speed and athleticism and crediting this to a changeup in training methods and attitude, following a shock defeat to George Kambosos and a decision to move up to 140 when it became clear that the weight cut was simply… too draining. Yet his first forays were odd for confidence builders, with none-to-impressive wins over Pedro Campa and technician Sandor Martin (which some called a gift). Yet THAT Lopez was simply not the Lopez that overwhelmed Taylor and how reminded fans of his run to dethrone uber technician (if uber small) Vasyl Lomachenko.

And interestingly, there is common ground in that Ortiz, a Lomachenko sparring partner, gave the Ukrainian hell in a Loma win that some also claimed was a gift.

Hey, it’s a giving sport. No matter how you think about it.

As far as the stats, both fighters are orthodox, and both are close in age, with Ortiz now 27 and Lopez now 26. Lopez’s career and KO percentage are generally speaking at another level, but his off days have arguably also been at another level, although he only has that one (tragic) Kambo loss. Ortiz stands 5’8” and boasts a 69-inch reach. Lopez is an inch shorter and has a 68.5-reach (a fact that could limit him at 140 but also at welter if he truly considers moving up—and “taking over” P4P king Terence Crawford.)

Lopez is currently an approximate 6-1 favorite on many gambling sites, including Fortuna, but let’s take a look at a few slots in the GOG secret matrix and see how the two compare:

Power: Lopez, although this one is likely closer than it appears. Lopez’s stoppages have primarily come at 135, and although he clearly has pop, he does not seem to have the one-shot bang at 140 that he had one class lower. Ortiz is not a big stoppage guy, and he is also coming up in weight. He is not feather-fisted, throws straight punches, etc., but he is likely going to be at a disadvantage here.

Speed: Lopez. Even during press workouts his speed was evident and his reflexes have always been cat like.

Athleticism: Lopez.

Chin:     Ortiz. In fact, Ortiz’s chin is somewhat unknown, but the loss to Kambosos, as well as various drops in sparring have lead many to rightfully question Lopez’s beard.

Boxing fundamentals: This one may be controversial, but Lopez has a tendency to fight in a faux shell with his chin hanging out while counting on reflexes and footwork to dominate opponents. This has (generally) worked for him, but when he has an off day, it is tremendously off, and one reason arguably is that does not seem to be able to fall back to a standard boxing base. Ortiz is much more solid here, and he even made the mega-technical Lomachenko pay when he took big risks. Lopez is about big risks, and this may make the fight closer than is expected. And if Lopez’s chin is indeed shaky… well, we’ll see.

Jab: Another controversial take. Unless he has suddenly developed in training, Lopez really does not have a jab. He uses little jabs to set up combos or to mask leaping in. One day he will pay for that. Ortiz is superior here, and he will use the jab to keep Lopez back—a tactic that has worked for opponents that have given Lopez trouble in the past.

Straight: Leo’s straight right has always been a money shot, even if it is not particularly straight, which leads us to another point.  He does have good pop in both hands, but he actually is a bit of a disguised hooker, with both hands often more hooking and cuffing than coming straight in (this was especially seen during the Taylor fight). This may be a regression, as his straight right was evident in the leadup to the Loma fight, and it has not particularly been seen since.

Hook: Leo has power and hooks with both hands. As for more classical lead hook (and hook to the body) it’s Ortiz. We’ll call this a tie.

Reach: Ortiz. In fact Ortiz uses his reach better and, as mentioned, Lopez is often guilty of leaping in.

Feet:                    Ortiz. Ortiz has traditional, but solid feet. Lopez has the gift of natural movement, but in a game of fundamentals, again we are going with Ortiz here.

Stance:                Ortiz. Lopez squares up often and badly. And he leads with his chin in the morphed shell.

Toughness/mental game: Lopez has a long history of being tremendously up and down. Ortiz has proven that he is consistent, game and a tough out for anyone, but this week Lopez has looked up, prepared and confident. And fast. Bad news for Ortiz who has not had time. The wild card is that Lopez’s personal life—including bitter divorce- and child-custody proceedings—is impossible to predict. What happens the day of the fight could easily impact the fight itself.

Preparation:      This is theoretical, but both Ortiz and Lopez looked hyper in shape at the weigh in, with the size advantage going to Ortiz. Lopez has said he feels stronger and faster than ever, although he appeared a tad dry. He may indeed be a tweener who is simply not built ideally for boxing weight classes, but hey, he’s done pretty good so far. On the other side, Ortiz is a big kid who may have suffered while making 135. He has also worked with Loma as a sparring partner, has amateur cred and again great fundamentals.

GOG/The Corners pick: This could be an upset in the making, but we’re not buying it. Despite the fundamentals… Lopez by decision.

That said, the odds are too wide, knowing how predictable Lopez runs—and there is the chin question. Ortiz is unlikely to be the guy to drop Lopez, but Ortiz by KO does pay… 12-1. Tempting, brotha, but the odds are that way for a reason. And they are 10-1 on Ortiz by decision. Which, as the odds indicate, is highly unlikely. Let’s just say… Lopez looks happy and confident, and when he’s happy and confident, he does well. And Ortiz needed more time to adjust to the weight. In other words… bet responsibly.)

Keyshawn Davis (9-0-0/6 wins by KO) vs. Jose Pedraza (29-5-1/14 wins by KO, one loss by KO.

Have to say that Davis is a GOG/Corners favorite, and we expect big things from him—at least to a point. His skills, timing and mean streak are borderline sublime, his amateur pedigree (80-1, although only one win by KO) was sharpened in the Olympics where he managed a silver medal and the only knock against him is that he is of only very average height and length at 5’9” with a 70-inch reach.

He has also put in work alongside Terence Crawford (never a bad thing), has, by his own admission, stopped smoking pot (not a bad thing either) and upped his competition level over his last five fights, but this is perhaps the first true yardstick test for a top up-and-comer who, however is already 24.

His foe, Pedraza, a featherweight champ out of Puerto Rico, was known as a top-flight boxer if somewhat lacking in power, although that was (perhaps unfairly) diminished when he ran into the wrecking ball that is Gervonta Davis in 2017. Pedraza rebounded at lightweight, winning the WBO title from Raymundo Beltran before getting UDed by Vasyl Lomachenkso and later by Jose Zepeda after moving up in weight. In fact, his career has been up-and-down since Davis, but there is no denying that even now he has skills and vastly more pro experience than Keyshawn Davis, and as both are ortho and similar in size (Pedraza stands 5’8 ½ and has a 70 ½-inch reach, this could be a sneaky good fight.

That said, Pedraza while tough, seems at times almost flimsy and lacking in power-and he is long-in-tooth, having been outworked in his last fight with Arnold Barboza. No upset predicted here either.

GOG/The Corners prediction: Davis by UD, but he will be looking for a KO statement, which might be worth the bet at 2.6-1.

Photo of Teofimo Lopez courtesy of CHAMPSIDE, CC BY 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.