The Balkan intrigue never stops...

Crime, war, politics, unpredictable elections.

It seems that all of the above are upon us. Thus in this week’s blog we will run through a bit of all of the above—starting with general news then moving through a bit of CEE grift, power games, but not (in this post anyway)... the looming war that threatens to encompass all of us.

If the conflict in the Middle East does not get there first.

But first, regarding the near apocalypse: some were likely expecting an update on the war in Ukraine. That is coming, but it’s not pretty, and there are running developments that should be at least quite indicative that are currently underway.

So look for that toward the end of this week.

But for now let’s jump to a few notes that caught  the eyes of Yours Truly, with the No. 1 eye-catcher being that only a few days ago Die Welt published a feature story that was translated and also published on Polish Onet.pl, which noted the rising cocaine trafficking problem and the looming threat of real violence in Europe.

Well, brothers, let’s just say you are a bit late to the party (and see the first two editions of the still suspended magazine on this site if you need to learn more). That said, interesting is that the publication did note a crack epidemic in Hamburg and the threat of Germany going Ecuadorian in terms of made violence. For those that read Polish, here is a link: https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/europe-zalewa-kokaina-niemcy-w-opalach-potezna-mafia-narkotykowa/lxlm64r,79cfc278

And as there is a strong Balkan element here, allow Yours Truly to add a few stories that I should have also covered over the past weeks:

Albania

From time to time I’ve noted the tale of Albanian politicians (of Greek descent) Fredi Beleri. I’ve covered his rather controversial past in the past, but, yes, since the last time he was featured on The Corners he was indeed released.

For those not in the know, he attempted to run for mayor in Himare in 2023 only to be arrested and jailed two days before the elections on charges of vote rigging. He won anyway, but he also remained in jail until mid this summer when he was released as he was also elected as Greek representative of European Parliament, and Albanian courts agreed that he attend the inaugural meeting of European Parliament this year in Strasbourg.

But he was only temporarily released. Meanwhile, relations between Greece and Albania were… strained.

In the end, Beleri served his sentence, but he did not take up his elected position as mayor. Now that he’s out, said Greek-Albanian relations remain strained, with Greece calling foul on minority rights and Albanian claiming that Beleri is pretty much nothing but trouble.

Wethinks we’ll hear about him again.

Yet that is hardly all when it comes to crime and corruption in Albania, and the Beleri story has long been eclipsed by far darker deeds.

In fact, several months ago we noted that the much-mentioned Sky ECC encryption bust just happened to mention quite a few Albanian police officials (with some tales stating that well more than 1,000 were incriminated). Whether or not the scale was as great as it seemed, what is clear is that yes, key police officials have now been arrested, with this including Aurel Z., the head of the Vlore Prosecutor’s office, as well as various other criminal investigators. These include police officers, local police chiefs and now the most recently appointed national police chief, Muhamet R. has been forced to resign.

While the story has not necessarily resonated beyond Albania, it has likely not gone unnoticed on the EU level, as organized crime, illegal immigration, people trafficking and narcotics trafficking has constantly made the headlines in the international press—as have high level corruption investigations and often sharp criticisms of Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama.

And if such criminal allegations were not enough, there are always political games, as, for example in early October the Albanian Socialist party actually banned opposition party members during a plenary session due to violent protest in the previous weeks.

Yet the definition of a plenary session is that all parliament members should be in attendance.

So no, not the best look, no matter the argument.

Bulgaria

A Balkan highlight/lowlight focus just would nto be complete without Bulgaria, which—to no one’s surprise—is gearing up for snap elections (again) on Oct. 27.  This will make a whopping seven elections in three years.

!!!

In truth, Bulgaria has kind of tried everything. A rotating government idea came into play in May 2023—and this, somewhat miraculously, kind of lasted kinda-sorta about a year. Then came June 2024 elections, which saw low turnout even for Bulgaria and resulted in an attempted caretaker government (which resulted in controversy) and which was eventually rejected by Bulgarian President Rumen Radev.

Which is kinda-sorta how we got here.

And, as the GERB party remains kinda-sorta the most powerful (despite a long, long list of controversies, scandals and allegations) it will remain kinda-sorta the primary player in October.

Yet there have been other curious developments, which perhaps the most intriguing involving the acrimonious split within the DPS/Turkish minority party from which hails US sanctioned (and highly controversial) MP Delyan Peevski. Some 17 members of that party were since been expelled, including Peevski. Eight others left with the crowd.

And frankly, for those following Bulgarian politics, the split was something to behold. First, Peevski was the chairman of the party. Second, he was long perceived to have been mentored (or at least greatly influenced) by forever “honorary chairman” and DPS strongman Ahmed Dogan.

Yet Peevski is Peevski, and anyone thinking he would go without a fight was simply naïve. He challenged his ouster as “unconstitutional,” gained recognition of his part of the party as legitimate and at the same time Dogan (apparently quite angrily went his own way), which resulted in a Peevski-DPS and a Dogan-DPS (although this is now the APS).

I kid you not.

Now does this herald the decline of Peevski’s influence? Or Dogan’s? You might think so, but… not necessarily.

Expect more infighting (or now this would be… outfighting), not to mention a bit of wooing on the part of GERB.

Which, clearly, is already going on.

Yet this is Bulgaria so we have more to talk about than just politics. It turns out that the brainchild behind the Israeli pager attack/campaign that decimated Hezbollah leadership has a Bulgarian link in the form of a shell company, Norta Global Ltd. The founder, Rinson J. is now on a wanted list, courtesy of Norway, and since mid-September…

Nobody knows where he is.

And yet there is more. Multiple papers in the West have now claimed that a Ukrainian team was behind the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosion, but at least one of the alleged perpetrators, Svetlana U., has claimed to have been in Bulgaria on vacations at the time.

Moreover, the boat that allegedly carried explosives to the detonation site, the Adromeda, was leased through perpetrators using fake Bulgarian (and Romanian) passports.

Yes, it’s the stuff of spy novels. And yes, it (or something anyway), really happened.

Montenegro

But if you are looking for intrigue, leave it to Montenegro to come through in the clutch. Which brings us, yes, right back to Do Kwon, the fugitive formal crypto king/Terraform Labs founder in constant danger of being extradited to the US—but still seemingly ALWAYS saved from such extradition at the last minute.

The Supreme Court of Montenegro postponed extradition—but this time to South Korea, with this upon request of the Montenegrin Supreme State Prosecutor’s Office—back in August. Then in September there was another postponement, with the case headed for the minister of justice Sept 20.

Regardless of the formalities of various arguments, this was a bit of a head scratch, as technically Do Kwon was arrested in Montenegro for attempting to cross the border using a false passport, which pales in comparison to the USD 45 bln wiped out by his… business ventures.

In the meantime, Terraform has reached a settlement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that would see payment of USD 4.47 bln in fines, but when it comes to Do Kwon there is always more.

And “more” in this case includes alleged secret meetings with Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic. Interestingly, accusations have come from a range of former ministers who have stated that Spajic actually wanted to avoid Do Kwon’s extradition to the US. There could be various reasons for this. Although the press has claimed Spajic was in a sense acting in Do Kwon’s interests, arguing that a final sentence in another jurisdiction (for example, South Korea) would be lighter, logic says that if there were mutual business interests between the two (another accusation) then the prime minister would definitely not want the type of serious digging guaranteed to take place in the US. Think federal inquiries (as in FBI).

Think big, big fines.

As in FCPA.

Think recent sanctions against high profile businessmen and actors, such as Aleksandar Vulin, the right hand intelligence man of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, or Bulgaria oligarch, MP, and constant source of controversy, Peevski in Bulgaria.

And meanwhile in the race for extradition destinations…

South Korea is in the lead.

BiH/Serbia… and Russia

You have to hand it to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov—for a crotchety old guy, he is still sharp as a tack, and he never misses an opportunity to stir up trouble. And while you would think he should be quite preoccupied with the butchery that is the war (not special operation) in Ukraine, he has recently had time to point to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the constant strife ongoing there and to blame it all on the Dayton Accords.

While there have been bumps in the road, dropped balls and arguably at least some international bungling in Bosnia, much of the local discord comes thanks to Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik. But first, lest anyone forget, it was uber tough (and arguably unrewarded) US point man Richard Holbrooke who, together with Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who negotiated the accords and brought an end to the war in Bosnia.

In 1995.

Now Lavrov has attempted to take the role of defender of the accords with claims that the West is undermining a peace agreement that has held the region in check for three decades.

A bit rich, ain’t it?

Especially, as Dodik has been prone to jump between Bosnia and Moscow to pal around with Vladimir Putin himself. Which says something, as Dodik is now best known for his call for the secession of Rebublika Srpska from Bosnia.

And bearing in mind that Lavrov has also “come to the aid of Serbia” in the face of the dastardly EU giving Serbia chance after chance after chance to get on top of organized crime; to calm relations with Kosovo; to generally get control of local harassment of the media while also making seemingly endless funds available for EU-sponsored Serbian projects (while still trying to offer a track to EU accession…

Yes, it’s a bit rich indeed.

But hey, Lavrov is probably quite aware that Putin also occasionally takes time out to meet the aforementioned (and sanctioned) Vulin. And friends gotta support friends, eh?

For yes, the mafia does have rules. And principles.

Not saying that these are mob guys or anything.

It’s just rules are rules.

And the Dayton Accords are being undermined…

By the West.

Yeah.

Sure.

Ok.

Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.

Photo credit: still from the American drama film Sherlock Holmes (1922) with John Barrymore, on page 41 of the May 13, 1922 Exhibitors Herald.Goldwyn Pictures, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.