The CEE crime, spy and somewhat appalling politics roundup (May 10, 2024)

Some loyal readers will remember how I started last week’s blog, which went something like this:

This week it’s once again spy stories galore—and once again it becomes hard to deny that Russia has essentially been waging war on the West for years.

And years and years.

But then, due to terrifically worrying events in Ukraine, Yours Truly was forced to shift gears.

And indeed there is an argument to do the same this week. For northwest of Avdiivka the news has run from worrying to provoking horror to somewhat less worrying as the Ukrainians have managed to react and slow the Russian breakout (possibly) to a halt. As previously noted, the Ukrainians in that sector had basically been on the run, as while fighting bravely and inflicting atrocious losses on the advancing Russians. This has been in the ace of glide bombs, better coordinated attacks and overwhelming numbers. Meanwhile, Russia is turning up the heat on other fronts as well.

Yet the situation remains incredibly fluid, and US and European arms are indeed on the way. So we are going to hold off on an Ukrainian War Update. Instead—and this may be a form of morbid fascination) we are going to address regional spy, politics crime news first.

For there is a great deal to cover.

A huge amount, really.

And this, quite extended summary is only the tip of the iceberg. Which may be hard to believe, but honestly, it pays to keep this in mind--at when it comes to due-diligence, crime observers or political pundit types.

Or even the cynical, lone and hard-to-find consulting detective types…

Like me.

So off we go.

Albania

Something is rotten in… Belgium. And Albania. If we are to believe the rumors anyway, and really, there is little reason not to believe because once again they go back to none other than… Sky ECC.

For those readers who do not remember Sky ECC, this was the encryption tool of choice for Balkan (and not only) cocaine trafficker to Europe, some of whom (think Montenegrin Skaljaris or Kavacs or both) so confident in the system that they actually allegedly sent MMS photos of victims being tortured and even dismembered to other gang members thinking they would never, ever get caught.

Then the system was finally broken and mafia kingpins (and underlings) have been falling ever since.

Make no mistake, there has been a political undercurrent (think Serbia), and that undercurrent in some countries may soon turn to… undertow.

Which means…

Think Albania.

And think big.

For if a certain Albanian investigative journalists are to be believed, Belgian prosecutors have endless files, incriminating thousands of Albanians, including at lest one top politician. And yes, this is believable, as back in July 2023 Albanian press noted that investigations spawning from the Sky ECC encryption bust had resulted in the arrests of senior police officers and a prosecutor. Belgian media also claimed that information coming out of Sky ECC troves painted “investor” Pellumb G. as at least indirectly behind murder while issuing arrest warrants for various Albanians on charges of drug trafficking, weapons possession, corruption and murder—while also noting that Pellumb G. was seen as close to none other than Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Yikes!

Flash forward and by March 2024 a trial of cocaine dealers in Belgium—which much of this evidence also coming from Sky ECC breakthroughs—has resulted in numerous splinter trials (and additionally very splintery news coverage) that has included 40 charged in the “Black Eagle case” and possibly another 140 charged in other cocaine trafficking cases. Many of the above are Albanian citizens, and momentum was gained with the confession in court of a key gang leader in 2023, Eridan G. Meanwhile, combined reports indicate past arrests and indictments of lawyers, businessmen and at least one former football star.

But success be damned. Reports from local Albanian press, television and also news aggregators such as SOT News are now indicating that Belgian police are currently unwilling to share information with Albania and Albanian police regarding ongoing investigations.

And yes, there must be a reason for this.

Bosnia

Some long-time readers may remember Yours Truly harping on the international drug trafficking gang, Tito and Dino, and the Gacacin brothers.

Well, even if you have forgotten, it seems that international authorities have not, as in late April EU and US law enforcement backed raids in Bosnia that led to the arrest of 23 (some of whom are allegedly police officers), including top dogs allegedly directly linked to Edin Gacacin, the reported brains behind Tito and Dino.

And what you may not have realized is that the brains no only was caught (again) and locked up last year, but it seems that he cut a deal, which may very well have led to the arrest of the 23 mentioned above.

But let’s back up: the Gacacins (a.k.a. Tito and Dino) were allegedly linked to a super cartel that included not only the Morrocan-Dutch Mocro Ganb, but also Camorra and the infamous Kinahan Gang of Irish Kinahan-Hutch gangland murder feud fame. And how were they linked… well, for one, they all showed up at the wedding of none other than Daniel Kinahan in Dubai in 2017. Worse, the Mocro mafia became infamous blood lust of Ridouan T., who was almost immediately suspected of being behind the murder of well-known Dutch investigative journalist Peter de Vries.

Interestingly, Ridouan T. and Edin Gacacin were both arrested in at different times in Dubai, and although the former wound up in a maximum security prison, the latter was for reasons that still remain unclear released before he could be extradited to Holland.

That said, he was detained again in March 2023, and (again) reportedly by December had cut a deal with Dutch authorities that, likely together with information also gained through the Sky ECC encryption bust, led to the aforementioned Bosnian arrests.

Which brings quite an end to what has been a long documented saga (including by Yours Truly and The Corners).

Or actually…

It doesn’t, as Daniel K., the alleged leader of the Kinahan Gang (yes, I had to write it like that) is still on the loose.

But maybe not for long. Only days ago OSINT kings at Bellingcat, together with the Sunday Times, noted that Daniel K.’s also wanted father, Christopher K. Sr. had “exposed his movements” by writing Google reviews on various restaurants and hotels under the alias Christopher Vincent.

This was not the brightest of moves, as the US Treasury has a USD 15 mln bounty on his head, but so as not to steal anyone’s thunder, check out the article here: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2024/04/06/cartel-king-kinahans-google-reviews-expose-travel-partners/

Nice bit of OSINT, that.

And as for Daniel K. and brother, Christopher K., the world continues to get smaller. That said, you never quite know just where they will turn up.

Bulgaria

As previously mentioned (many times previously, in fact), Bulgaria is once again facing early elections. This has been a chronic headline in Bulgaria (also for years and years), and it can be argued that the country has tried a bit of everything in efforts to right the ship. This has include an rather doomed idea (which failed) to have rotating prime ministers, which lasted until… is simply did not.

Now, literally to no one surprise at all, going into planned June 9 parliamentary elections none other than the GERB party is ahead in the polls. This is not a massive lead, and again is not unexpected, as GERB tends to be better established, better organized and more Teflon-coated than perhaps any party in Bulgarian history, which means it always can boast a core bloc of voters that (come hell or high water) tends to hold at minimum 25 percent.

The remaining landscape traditionally remains fractured, and this traditionally means that coalitions of too many parties that simply do not get along do not last. For those desperate to be in the know, polls have put the No. 2 ranked party, We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) anywhere in the 14-16 percent range, with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) and The Revival all also in the 13-14 percent range, depending on the day. The Bulgarian Socialists (BSP) are unlikely to exceed 10 percent and There is Such a People (TISP) will be challenged to hit 6 percent.

And below and beyond the above there does happen to be for the West troubling undercurrent--this being a streak of quite favorable Russian sentiment among voters and politicians alike.

Yep. I said it. For that is just how it is.

But back to the math. The truth is that the BSP and TISP can play the role of coalition king makers, which begs the question: will it actually matter? For (glossing over endless scandals anyway) nothing has particularly changed when it purely comes to math, votes and future coalition stability.

Or actually, let’s hold off slightly on the gloss, as yes, the No. 2 ranked party, WCC-DB now boasts (well, maybe this is not the best word) a feature player in yet another scandal, this being that of Kiril P., the WCC-DB-backed former prime minister now mired in allegations of forgery tied to a controversial NGO with said links to the NGO (which should not have existed—hence the forgery of his resignation) that go back to when he served as economy minister in 2021. Yet Kiril P. is not ready to go down swinging, and he has attacked a founder of said NGO (and in this case, whistle-blower, Atanas R., claiming that he is linked to none other than Rumen N.—a.k.a. Pasha, a key founder of Security Insurance Company (SIC).

And what is SIC do you ask? Well, it is one of two high controversial and major (depending how you define that word) “insurance companies” that have been reputed in the past to be linked to Bulgarian organized crime. The second was Vasil Iliev Security (VIS), which not only provided security but also… car insurance.

And how did Kiril P. know of these links?

(Or is Kirl P. being set up... by a troubling undercurrent? Ah, you see… the deeper you dig, the uglier it gets. Which is also a tradition in Bulgarian politics. And not only.)

But back to the point--only to jump to a quick aside--before any VIS or SIC lawyer types decide to harass poor little old me, Yours Truly is not the one saying this, as such references have come from a wide variety of sources, including Wikileaks cables such as this one: Cable: 05SOFIA1207.

Which begs the questions: just why was insurance key back in the old days? Especially, as both groups (allegedly) tended to have a staff of erm… insurance salesmen that consisted of former boxers, wrestlers, martial artists, ex-secret service and other heavy types?

Hey, that’s a question for another time, but we’ll get to it, I promise.

And maybe nothing will change until a certain generation just ages out.

This is a shame. Bulgarians truly do deserve better.

Czech(ia)

When it comes to the spy game the Czech Republic has a long tradition. Sure, there was Cold War Berlin and Vienna, but Prague-based intrigue has a long and overly-romanticized history.

And thus it continues with revelations, with the latest revealing a husband-and-wife team of Russian GRU agents who supported GRU’s Unit 29155 in their various nefarious activities, which included blowing up ammunition warehouses in 2014 in the Czech Republic.

The husband and wife, Elena and Nikolai Saposnikov, allegedly enabled access to ammunition storage in Vrbetice, but it went even further than that. In short, these were real deal spies (with the wife likely in charge). But we are again not going to steal anyone’s thunder on this. Check out the article here in English, as it’s first-class (and riveting) work:

https://theins.ru/en/politics/271205

But lest their be doubts, Czech law enforcement has finally confirmed that yes, GRU was at large and responsible for the Vrbetice bombings, naming the GRU agents as Anatoly Chepiga and Oleksandr Mishkin.

But stop to have a think about this. Russian GRU has actually been blowing up arms depots in the EU since 2014—for, as also highlighted in The Corners, ammunition factories in Bulgaria were also repeatedly hit prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has been at war with the West for quite some time, it seems. Like since 1945.

Montenegro

Remember Do Kwon? You should (whether or not you follow the region), as he is one of the more infamous crypto fraudsters in recent history, with the US SEC having targeted the Korean with a fraud case, plans to fine Do Kwon’s company Terraform to the tune of more than USD 5 bln and to find Do Kown himself USD 100 mln.

If that sounds harsh, remember that the sudden crumble of Terraform wiped out some USD 45 bln in market capitalization… in one week.

Yet Do Kwon… is still in Montenegro, where he was arrested, as in March a Montenegrin court overturned a  previous decision to see Do Kwon extradited to South Korea. The US is also seeking his extradition, as, reportedly, is Singapore.  Where canes likely await.

But while Do Kwon continues to foil extradition from Montenegro, Montenegrin law enforcement has proven a bit more capable, managing to get none other than Dusko K. extradited from the UK back to his home country on the back of corruption charges.

Dusko K.’s extradition is interesting in that he was known to be close to former President Milo Djukanovic.

Actually, it’s more than that, as he has not only promised to spill the beans on Djukanovic, but has stated that he has a mysterious “blue bag” in his possession that will illuminate all that is dark, evil and sundry.

To be fair some illumination has already taken place, with Dusko K. having been caught on film, allegedly, passing USD 100,000 to a local mayor.

But what’s in the blue bag? Hard to say? But according to Dusko K.’s recent statements, it could be a video of him paying off a top dog ranking far higher than a local mayor.

Who? Well, think much, much higher.

Or just go back to the start of this section and you have a clue.

Poland

The ouster of the former ruling party, Law-and-Justice, and the honeymoon period of the Citizen’s Coalition (KO) government in Poland has been…

Vicious. Some might even say vindictive. (Although not Yours Truly).

On the one hand, not surprisingly, PiS and PiS founder, the now somewhat beleaguered, but still mercurial, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has railed against KO and current Prime Minister Donald Tusk. There have been too many accusations to list, but he has continued to find support among hard-core PiS voters (always between 25-30 percent of voters) and many of Poland’s older generation. On the flip-side, Tusk and KO have blasted PiS and Kaczynski for past alleged abuses, one of which has dogged PiS for years.

This being…

Pegasus.

Pegasus spyware, a product of the controversial Israeli NSO “cyber-arms” company, has developed a level of notoriety all its own.

Yes, this is the same Pegasus spyware acquired by despotic governments in Latin America and the Middle East, and yes, it the same allegedly used by said despots to attack political opponents and triangulate persons—including journalists—for assassination.

Yet it was also acquired by various… Central European governments, and at the end of April Polish Minister of Justice/National Prosecutor Adam Bodnar stood before Parliament to state that it was used against “hundreds” of persons in Poland during PiS’s range, with Bodnar adding that even he was shocked.

Quick aside: Yours Truly would assume it would take a great deal to shock Bodnar. He once headed the Polish Helsinki Foundation, which dealt with human rights abuses in Poland, and yes, I dealt with him and his organization directly as a very much hounded investigative journalist back in the mid-2000s. And both he and the Helsinki Foundation were astoundingly sharp, effective… and very, very thorough.

And the remainder of his resume ain’t bad either, as he has served concurrently as senator, lectured on law as a university professor, served as a dean of law at a university and also served in the past as Poland’s Ombudsman.

So when he says it’s bad, yeah, I will tell you with full confidence that yeah, it’s generally bad.

In fact, according to Bodnar, Pegasus was used against 578 people over approximately five years by the Polish Anti-corruption Bureau (CBA), the Polish Internal Security Agency (ABW) and the Military Counter-intelligence agency.

And just how did this work? Was “surveillance” based on warrants?

Good question, as warrants the world over are not quite what they used to be. And when queried about Pegasus, PiS founder and strongman Kaczynski said Pegasus was used against criminals.

Ninety-nine-percent of the time anyway.

But that's not all...

A pair of outrageously wild (and similar) also bubbled to the surface over the past week, with both centering on well-known names turning fugitive to the shock and awe of all. Story No. 1: the press has amok on suspicions that former oil monopoly PKN Orlen board members Daniel O., as well as his primary assistant (and a second… colleague),  decided to… make a run for it. Reportedly, Daniel O. is in Hungary, although he could be just about anywhere, as his brothers in arms have been said to be active in business (including real estate) in Dubai, Albania and Turkey.

And just whey would they make a run for it… most likely due to the fact that prosecutors are currently investigating approximately 20 cases of… abuse against the state, and Daniel O. apparently falls into this this category, as not only his office has been searched at PKN Orlen, but also in fact this has gone wider, with his colleague, Adam B., reportedly having seen a home in Turkey also searched as a result of investigations conducted by the Polish Internal Security Agency (ABW). Yet Adam B. may be a tough cookie to flush out, as he has also reportedly gained… Turkish citizenship.

If this seems like much ado about something… well, yes, it potentially is, as it appears to go back to a Swiss subsidiary of PKN Orlen, Orlen Trader Switzerland (OTS), whose CEO, a Lebanese businessman, Samer A., now stands accused o embezzling PLN 1.6 bln.

Yikes. But to be fair, Daniel O. has claimed he has been targeted by prosecutors at the behest of the new government.

Because, to be fair, that’s what they all say.

But Daniel O. and friends are the only officials to have recently made a run for the border, as that news was somewhat dwarfed by the altogether stunning revelations that a Polish judge, Tomasz Szmydt, not only has fled Poland, but he actually has fled to…. Belarus (!!!) to request…

Asylum (!!!)

In this case, Your Truly is using the subject’s last name, as he actually appeared at a press conference in Minsk to flash his ID and advertise his new… status.

Not to say that this was a shocking development is perhaps the understatement of the decade. In fact, despite having reported on crooks, politicians, mafias, prosecutors, dirty businessmen and the like for more than two decades—and despite having myself dealt with a very… controversial judge, this story was a shocker.

And it sent shock waves through the Polish press, government and to various corners of the world abroad for now Polish prosecutors are investigating Judge Szmydt to determine whether or not he was actually a spy.

Obviously, it is too early to say, but it turns out that he was ruling on security clearances, likely had access to reams of sensitive information and, after all, he did suddenly make a run for Belarus.

To claim asylum.

(!!!)

Which makes one wonder.

I mean… has this guy actually followed ANY of the events that have taken place recently in Belarus?

That said, in the world of a Poland (and not only ) allegedly being constantly targeted by Russian spydom—and in a world where Russia is now conducting tactical nuclear practice; threatening the UK (and NATO as well); possibly behind a recent case of arson in the UK (and let’s not forget various assassinations and ammo dump bombings in the region) and supposed bugs found in Polish government meeting rooms, nothing is difficult to believe. And certainly, Poland is taking it seriously, with Minister of Defense (and hawk) Radoslaw Sikorski reportedly livid and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk convening secret service heads to determine damage and the full story behind the sudden defection.

Interestingly, Szmydt is not a complete unknown, as he was very, very pro Law-and-Justice, and he was known to heavily criticize fellow judges who were down with PiS judicial reforms. But also interestingly, at least some PiS officials instantly distanced themselves from Szmydt, calling him a traitor.

But to be fair (and only to be fair), Szymydt has claimed that  he fled because he was being targeted by the new government.

Told you they always say that.

Slovakia

The news out of Slovakia has been troubling for long prior to the return of Robert Fico and the SMER-led government. In fact, considering the seemingly endless ramifications of past government-meets-corruption-meets-secret service skullduggery, there has been plenty of troubling news for years.

As yes, the troubles do not cease, as not it appears that any hope of justice in the wake of the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancé, Martina Kusnirova, is now crushed. Not to say that such hopes of justice had not long been trod upon with the frankly bizarre exoneration of jailed (on other charges) oligarch Marian K.—despite the fact that the actually shooters-for-hire and even Marian K.’s right hand shooter-for-hire hirer are in prison on convictions directly and indirectly linked to the murders—but now “trod” is n longer the word.

For the very prosecutor’s office that had attempted to get a conviction has been shut down. And the two prosecutors who had long worked the case, Matus Harkabus and Daniel Mikulas, were transferred… practically out of the region.

As in hundreds of miles away.

With the stroke of a pen.

In short, no good deed goes unpunished.

Not in Slovakia anyway.

Yet there does remain a sliver of hope, as said prosecutors reportedly did manage to file a complete appeal to overturn Marian K.’s innocent verdict.

So a sliver.

A glimmer if you will.

Which is not simply outrageous, but an outrage.

Banana-republic level, in fact.

Serbia

No regional rundown of international intrigue is ever quite complete without Serbia. In fact, in the space of only a few weeks that country has made the nose by 1) getting still closer with China (despite the continued rattling of sabers when it comes to Taiwan 2) allegations that Serbian Kobra Special Forces are training militias just on the Serbian side of the Kosovo border and finally the likelihood that that violence will once again erupt in Kosovo, as the Albin Kurti-led Kosovo government just cannot come to terms with the Alexander Vucic presidency of Serbia on the Kosovo questions.

But also because summer is coming, and it’s going to get hot. And when summers get hot in the Balkans, things tend to go off.

Because that’s just what they do.

But more interesting (for the moment) is the return of none other than US sanctioned former secret services master Alexander Vulin, who resigned prior to Serbian elections (after having been sanctioned) so as not to become a distraction, but whom was suspected to have a seat somewhere waiting for him should the Vucic backed government coalition come out on top.

And it did, and apparently he does, according to incoming Prime Minister Milos Vucevic.

Let’s just say… the US will not be happy.

That said, if for a moment we play the Serbian apologist, two things come to mind: first, love him or loathe him, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is an absolute master when it comes to walking the foreign relations tightrope between the US, Russia and China—while also managing to play both the nationalist at home but the semi-logical/sometimes reasonable negotiator with the EU when it comes to recognizing (or not) the independence of Kosovo and fighting for the rights of ethnic Serbs in the North Kosovo enclaves.

Of course, his counterpart is the at times infuriating (for the EU) Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti so it’s not that difficult to look good okay.

Second, the Vulin story is interesting. He has been tied by the US to mafia groups, to alleged indirect crimes and the US has also highlighted him repeatedly (and negatively) for his close ties to Russia. On the flip-side (which has been covered by The Corners in the past), Vulin did prove absolutely ferocious when Vucic was allegedly linked to—and blackmailed—by the incredibly violent mafia king Veljko B., who was not only literally attempting to revive an organized crime group of yesteryear, but to create a pan-region group that would… start running things.

So yes, we give you Aleksandar Vulin, the anti-hero, part-time villain who (depending on where you sit) has sometimes evidently been the right man for the job.

If you are talking about head of the secret services in Serbia anyway.

Ukraine

Now if you have read this far, you are either fixated on spy news or a glutton for punishment, but believe it or not, that is essentially the tip of the iceberg. For over the past week there also took place yet another defeated assassination attempt on the life of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy; an USD 10 mln reward placed on the head of Russian ransomware evil genius Dmitry Kh.—who through his “LockBit” group forced ransom payments of half-a-billion dollars from victims that included schools, government institutions and… law enforcement.

(!!!)

That’s right, various arms of international law enforcement have been paying ransoms to evil international Russian hackers.

Just what is the world coming to.

That said, we are going to hold off on the Ukrainian War Update, as 1) much is still in flux and 2) the true stabilization or shift in the war may still be coming.

To give you a teaser of just what may lie in store: the Ukrainians may have finally slowed down (and may put to a halt) the Russian breakout northwest of Avdiivka, but there are potential new breakouts in Zaporizhzhia and the Kupiansk front is also shaky. On top of it, Russia has garnered some 300,000 troops that may well be used in a new offensive in the coming weeks. Our prediction: they will go for Kharkhiv, and this may well happen in 7-10 days (if it has not indeed already begun). In short, the end of May into June period will likely be critical.

Which prayers for the people and defenders on those fronts. That said, we’ll try to post an update following the weekend.

And for our readers in Ukraine (and we do have a few). Slava Ukrainii and God be with you. I sincerely wish I could say more than that.

Preston Smith is a licensed detective and well-established risk consultant in Poland who offers due diligence, litigation support and political analysis. Please see www.cddi.pl for more information.

Still from the American drama film Sherlock Holmes (1922) with John Barrymore, on page 41 of the May 13, 1922 Exhibitors Herald.Goldwyn Pictures, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.