The War in Ukraine Update (May 2, 2024): Russia's breakthrough northwest of Avdiivka gains steam

This week it’s once again spy stories galore, not to mention the attack on civilians and burning of the "Harry Potter" castle in Odesa—and once again it becomes hard to deny that Russia has essentially been waging war on the West for years.

And years and years.

But hold that thought, as spy stories, intrigue and crime will simply need to wait until the next blog, as we instead turn to follow up on recent battlefield events in Ukraine.

Now, as, Dear Reader, you may well know, the good news, which has reverberated even deep into the halls of the Kremlin, is that weapons and support are finally on the way (even from Germany). The bad news is that they are not coming fast enough, and (as mentioned last week), the 10-day time line from the date of the decision is still viewed by Yours Truly as critical. Russia knows this too, and as expected, it has upped the ante with aggressive moves along many sections of the front.

And unfortunately, this correspondents currently pessimistic outlook remained on point, with Russian counters gaining steam primarily in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and northwest of Avdiivka.

So we begin in the south.

Zaporizhzhia/Robotyne

There have been no changes in Kherson of note, but as for Zaporizhzhia, last week the push up through the eastern side of Robotyne was evident. But much can change over the course of five or six days, and it appears that Russia has now reclaimed the entirety of Robotyne that may be reclaimed, with the remainder essentially remaining a true no-man’s land in a land where no-man’s land often still remains occupied.  This can better be seen in the third map below, with the remaining... remains of that settlement just visible above the grey, disputed area, which is now believed to be essentially under Russian control.

Map from  April 25:

Current map:

Current map--closer view of Robotyne:

Staromayorske/Donetsk front

Here there is finally a sliver of good news with reports of a ferocious Ukrainian counterattack at Staromayorske, which has reportedly stalled a Russian drive at Urozhaine. Little information in known about the status of this fighting, however, although Russian counters have been reported.

Map of Staromayorske from January 2024:

Map of Staromayorske from April 25.

Map of Staromayorske from May 1:

Topological map of Staromayorske May 1:

South of Avdiivka/Marinka/Novomykhailivka

The “Marinka” sector, while stable for months, has shown signs of breaking down, although not at the same pace seen on the Avdiivka front. South of Marinka, Novomykhailivka has been lost, and Russian forces are driving hard for Konstantynivka, with reports from that fighting ringing pessimistic. Marinka itself has long fallen into enemy hands, and pressure at Heorivka may soon mean that Ukrainian troops will be forced to fall back to defend Maksymilianivka. Worse, Krasonhorivka is under serious attack from two sides since the fall of Staromykhailivka, and there are doubts as to how long it will hold out.

Map of the "Marinka front" from April 25:

Map from May 1:

 

Avdiivka

Unfortunately, last week’s update has held true to the prediction that the breakthrough at Ocheretyne was indeed a breakthrough that would continue to threaten further collapse of Ukrainian lines and losses of settlements.

First though, a view of Avdiivka as a whole: there is little denying that the all out effort on the Russian side has been paying dividends—although this may be questioned in light of what appears to be massive losses accompanied to attain even the smallest of settlements. That said, in the south, if there were doubts, Pervomaiske is now in Russian hands. And in the north, over the past five/six days, the speed at which the Russians have gained ground here has been unsettling. The infamous settlement of Berdychi (which Yours Truly did believe was on the verge of collapse months ago) has finally been lost. Likewise have the villages of Solovoive and Semenivka

These differences are visible even when comparing maps from April 25 to the current map of Avdiivka, but note the differences at Arkhanhelske from May 1 to May 2.

April 25 map:

May 1 map:

May 2 map:

 

Generally, by far the most troubling is the breakthrough, following the collapse at Ocheretyne. Although the vaunted Ukrainian 47th did return to the fight—and although it has been making Russian forces pay heavily, possibly inflicting up to 1500 casualties defending against the final assault at Berdychi alone, a full pullback was set in motion when it became evident that Berdychi—a settlement that never numbered even 500 persons—was lost.

Now as a review, the Berdychi/Svatove line was for close to a year key to supplying defenders deep in the hellhole of Avdiivka itself. Just how many Russians were thrown at these two tiny settlements over the second half of 2023 and first five months of 2024 is difficult to fathom. And although the loss of Berdychi hurts, it is simply not well-known enough to be a PR victor in itself. In fact, now Russia will be getting to the brass tacks of attempting to make good on an attempted lightening strike across undefended or difficult to defend territory in order to take the Ukrainian command center at Pokrovsk. That said, as seen by the map below, this distance of mere tens of kilometers is actually quite daunting, considering the losses already incurred.

Pokrovsk map:

 

This does not mean that this breakthrough is not just that: a breakthrough of worrying proportions, and in fact, even further north the Ukrainians have even on Deepstate UA maps lost both Novokalynove and Keramik, which will enable better Russian supply alternatives—and which now puts the town of Arhanhelske under threat from two sides, and there are reports that it is already gone. In fact, for now the Russian goal may well not be Povkrovk, but instead a drive straight north, and as of the morning of May 2, the bad news has kept rolling in.

In fact, and no, I do not want to believe this either, it appears that this is a true breakthrough and Ukrainian forces are all but running for their lives.

Close up of Arkhanhelske breakthrough--note the loss of Keramik and Novokalynove:

 

Now the first question is: just why did this happen? The Avdiivka pullout was meant to buy time, to in fact prevent such a breakthrough. Yes, there was the rotation mistake noted in the last blog, but with the 47th stepping back into the fray, it was at least temporarily believed that the Russian assault would be halted.

The answer is two-fold: Beyond Ocheretyne Ukrainian forces have no lines to fall back to, and hastily dug foxholes will not cut it. The second answer may be the most frightening recent development in the war: glide bombs.

True, at first Russia appeared to focus glide bombs on cities (i.e. on civilian populations), but now their tactics are clear. Soften up (or obliterate) Ukrainian defenses with massive glide bombs, followed by traditional artillery, bee hive drone attacks and waves of zombie infantry. And unfortunately it is working not only beyond Avdiivka, but also in other sections of the front.

Please note that the Arkanhelske news is not yet confirmed, and it appears that there are some positions that may be at least somewhat defensible immediately beyond Arkhanhelske, but at any rate, for the moment, Russia in that sector is calling the shots.

This does not comes as a surprise, as both Ukrainian Chief of Staff Gen. Oleksandr Syrski and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted the sharply worsening battle conditions and the need for Ukraine’s allies to deliver weapons at a faster pace. That said, Yours Truly still predicts this drive to burn out over the next four/five days, as US-provided weapons and supplies are indeed beginning to appear in Ukraine.

Bakhmut front

While there is no new news south of Bakhmut, the Chasi Yar scenario has steadily deteriorated. Ukraine’s Gen. Syrski has previously stated that Putin gave his generals only to May 5 to take Chasi Yar, and while somewhat behind schedule, a potential breakthrough to the forested area to the south will put Chasi Yar under immediate threat. The upside for Ukraine is that forces are said to be well entrenched within that forest—and forests have been close to impossible for both sides to clear over the past nine months of the war. The downside is that the sheer numbers thrown into the fire by Russia will stretch the mettle of even hardened Ukrainian troops.

Bakhmut photo from April 25:

Bakhmut/Chasi Yar as of May 1:

Kupiansk

Kupiansk and Synkiivka have long been on the radar of The Corners, and although a massive buildup at that front petered out during the summer—in part because key Russian troops were transferred to Zaporizhzhia in order to stop the Ukrainians at Robotyne—the threat and pressure ever remained.

This pressure appears to have increased markedly this week at Synkivka, although Russia has still failed to break through. This is likely in part because on that front Ukrainians began digging in sooner, and dragon’s teeth and trench networks are supposedly already in place.

Kupiansk front as of May 1:

Topological map of Synkivka as of May 1:

In short, Ukraine is facing severe pressure. Worse, civilian populations continue to be targeted, with cluster munitions, delivered by a ballistic missile reportedly having Odesa April 29 and further bombardment having taken place during the night.

This is a war crime, people. True, Ukraine has also used US-supplied cluster munitions--and cluster munitions should indeed be banned--but using these against civilians essentially in a holiday district is another level.

As in: this is more evidence of genocide.

This is not to say that there is no good news. Secretly delivered, US long-range ATACMS are now at work, and long range targeting of Russian supply and logistics is gaining tempo. But time is running out, and reports from the field are even arguably worse than what Yours Truly has just reported.

It is what it is. The Russian offensive essentially needs to be stopped within the next week. If not, these are the sins of 2023--that being non-delivery of promised weapons and aid by the West--coming home to roost, and once again the Ukrainians are the ones to pay. Yes, there is still time, but the term "precious little" does come to mind.

Hopefully, it is on the mind of the allies as well.

 

Map credit: all maps courtesy of Deepstate UA.

Fire at the Odesa Academy of Law by ational Police of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.