Ukrainian War Update Aug. 3

Belarus

A number of Belarussian officials allegedly complicit in transporting Ukrainian children across the border of occupied Ukraine to Belarus have now been identified by the  Belarusian Investigative Center (BIC).

Approximately 2,000 children have been sent to a camp in Dubrava, which the group reported to be owned by the Belaruskali fertilizer company, according to BIC and Belarussian state media. The BIC noted that the children have been sent to the camp upon direct orders of Putin and Lukazenko, but also that the Talai Fund foundation, owned by Aliaksei Talai has allegedly also supported the camp. Likewise, Lukashenko’s son, Dzmitry Lukashenko, is active in the children’s “indoctrination,” according to BIC.

The same week that the government of Serbia announced trade talks with Iran, that country’s defense minister, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani and Belarussian Minister of Defense Viktor Khrenin signed a memorandum of understanding to increase cooperation and to help dead to stability and peace in Ukraine. Well, ok.

Ostensible Wagner mercenary group leader Evgeniy Prigozhin made conflicting statements this week, first stating that the group would focus on Africa and Belarus, but at the same time also stating that recruitment has been halted. The latter possibly comes from a lack of funds. Interestingly, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko backtracked this week on statements that Wagner mercenaries wanted to raid the Polish city of Rzeszow, claiming that he was joking, but that also the Wagners are very angry due to the fact that Polish weapons are sent from Rzeszow to Ukraine. Thus, in Lukashenko fashion, he took credit for holding them back and keeping the peace.

Poland has also called Belarus on the carpet as two Belarussian helicopters flew over Polish territory this week. At first both sides denied this was the case, but video and photos did appear to confirm the incident. Belarus has continued to deny this happened, and various media and experts have stated that likely the flight path was simply a mistake. Others have claimed the flight path was a "provocation" and Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak called a meeting of the Polish National Security and Defense Committee over the incident while also alerting Nato.

Bulgaria

The end of the Black Sea Grain Deal has complicated matters for all, but Bulgarian Minster of Defense Todor Tagarev highlighted that Moscow’s decision to create a “warning zone” in the Black Sea, which overlaps Bulgaria’s economic zone there could impact Bulgarian offshore gas exploration, according to Bulgarian Radio (BGR). Although there was initially a great deal of flipping on the subject during the first year of the war, of late Bulgaria has committed to arms delivery, including 155-mm shells. Tagarev called ammunition and weapons supply “pragmatic” and in the interest of Bulgarian security.

Croatia

Ukraine has been hustling to find ways to export grain in the wake of the end of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Although there are rumors that Russia has approached the US in order to restart the deal, no confirmed news reports have surfaced. Meanwhile, the Baltics have suggested that Poland agree to a corridor that would allow grain to be shipped through Poland, although the current ban on domestic sales of Ukrainian grain in Poland would remain in place. Now Croatia has begun discussions with Ukraine’s foreign ministry, although further details have not been forthcoming.

Hungary

A bizarre move by Hungary—in conjunction with the Russian Orthodox Church—to bring Ukrainian POWs of Hungarian ethnicity to Hungary earlier this year continues to anger the Ukrainian government and leave others scratching heads, as now both Ukrainian press and Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL) have reported that the POWs have been threatened and coerced to become Hungarian citizens. According to sources cited by RFE/RL, the soldiers were told that if they did not become Hungarian citizens, they could be accused of desertion.

The story actually began in Juen when the Russian Orthodox Church and Hungarian Deputy Prime Minister Zsolt Semjen boasted of the transfer of 11 POWs, although no information was made available to Ukraine. [This story was covered in The Corners.] Oddly, Prime Ministers Viktor Orban appeared to have distanced himself from the transfer even to the point of claiming ignorance. Since this time, five POWs have returned to Ukraine.

Poland

Poland and Ukraine mutually summoned ambassadors in a tiff that seems to have roiled far out of control. Polish Ambassador to Ukraine Bartosz Tsihotski was summoned by the Ukrainian side, following a statement by Poland’s Marcin Prydacz, advisor to Polish President Andrzej Duda, that described Ukrainian “ingratitude.” Tsihotski was told to tell the Polish government not to talk like that. This upset Polish Prime Minister. The Polish Foreign Ministry then summoned the Ukrainian ambassador and told him to tell the Ukrainian government not to talk like that to Tsihotski.

It must not be fun to be an ambassador.

Unfortunately, the roots of the tiff are more serious and go back to a continued decision by Poland and other CEE countries to block imports of Ukrainian grain, due to perceived negative impact on domestic markets. That comes at a time when, due to the reneging of the Black Sea Grain Initiative by Russia, Ukrainian grain is stuck in Ukraine or being destroyed by Russian missile strikes in moves that could severely impact food prices and also cause hunger in the Third World. Ukraine is attempting to re-route grain through the Baltics and the Balkans.

Russia

Drones struck Moscow again, causing little damage, but rattling locals. Meanwhile, the Chongar Strait railway bridge, a critical link for Russia between Zaporizhzhia and Crimea, that was damaged earlier this month has severely impacted Russian logistics, as has damage and the threat of strikes to the Kerch Bridge.

Former Russian President and now Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council stated July 30 that success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Crimea would mean that Russia would be forced to use nuclear weapons. Then again, he is always saying that.

 

Battlefield update

Little movement was seen across all fronts, with a stalemate setting in, although artillery and drone strikes revved up in various theaters, which likely indicates new or rejuvenated commitments to the counteroffensive by the Ukrainians. It is clear, however, that the counteroffensive is coming at a high cost, as mine-field defense works, especially in Zaporizhzhia continue to take a heavy toll.

In the Kupyansk and Svatove fronts very little movement was seen, although Russian forces continued in Svatove to push west in the direction of the Kharkhiv-Luhansk line, and ostensibly toward Borova.

Serhivka appears to have been captured by Russian forces, although it appears that Ukrainian forces have checked the Russian advance for the moment at Nadiya—or hat logistical difficulties are holding the Russians back. As Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have consistently targeted ammo dumps and supply lines ranging from Crimea to the north, this is quite likely. Also, it should be said that in Svatove and Kreminna fierce local Ukrainian counterattacks are ongoing, with a Ukrainian push to potentially cut roads that deliver supplies to Svatove and Kupyansk forces.

Staromaiorske, which has grabbed headlines, as only a week ago the Ukrainian military claimed that it had taken the town, is unclear. The town/village has been completely levelled, and according to Russian reports, the Ukrainians have been pushed back and out of the village due to fierce artillery, counter attacks and strikes from Russian KA model attack helicopters armed with missiles that have a 15 kilometer range, which means that the helicopters are beyond Ukrainian anti-aircraft capabilities.

The situation in Staromaiorske may be far more complex, however. It does appear that the Ukrainian side has been forced to stay out of the village, due to lack of cover there.

Russian and Ukrainian bloggers have highlighted the importance of the village of Urozhaine to the east of Staromaiorske, and also the high ground west of the city, and here there appears to be fierce battles with Russian troops still holding this ridge line. Yet there are also reports that Ukrainian forces are attacking the village of Zavitne Bazhannya, which is directly beyond Staromaiorske.

This could mean that at least Ukrainian forces pushed through Staromairorske, and this could eventually spell trouble for Russian troops at Urozhaine, who are being struck by a two pronged attack from the north and west, but which then could face supply cutoff issues should a presence beyond Staromaiorske somehow be established (in Zavitne Bazhannya). The Zavitne Bazhannya presence is very doubtful, however.

Continued fierce fighting is being seen in Bakhmut, with Russia claiming that the Ukrainian side, which is still making small gains to the south lost 200 men and multiple personnel carriers over the last 24 hours. The fate of Klishchiivka and Andriivka is still unclear.

The Ukrainian offensive Robotyne has likely stalled at the first Russian line of defense. Russian reports have put Ukrainian losses at as high as 400 per day, with multiple vehicles destroyed, although these stats are likely exaggerated. This situation is not unlike that of Staromaiorske in that an no-man’s land has been created within the salient of the counteroffensive there, and holding ground under concentrated Russian fire is extremely difficult. Further gains are complicated by deep mine fields and Russian artillery and helicopter strikes.

Noteworthy is that Ukrainian military sources have highlighted that Russian counterattacks on Staromairoske have continued and that Russia has also tried to retake territory lost in and near Bakhmut, including that in Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka. The Ukrainian government also noted the hard push by Russia in Kupyansk, Svatove and Lyman, which is seen as an attempt to dent Ukraine’s focus on the Bakhmut area.

US sources, including military sources, are now stating that the counteroffensive will last months.

Map courtesy of Deepstate.UA.