Ukrainian war update--searching for a silver lining...

Let's start this iteration of the Ukrainian War Update with the following caveat:

Yes, I am looking for a silver lining.

Make no mistake that the Russians are making progress. Ukrainian forces are under extreme duress to the point that it is no less than astounding that they are still holding. Meanwhile, the civilian population has undergone direct targeting and not a day goes by without reports of casualties, due to drone and missile strikes. Even worse, Russia has intentionally targeted key infrastructure (and often it has used the "double-tap" strategy to kill firemen, medics and workers attempting to repair damage, which in itself is no less than premeditated murder), with the end result of winter deprivation already in sight.

That said, there are signs of exactly what we predicted on The Corners (and I cannot take full credit here, as I have also relied on key, and far-better informed sources), this being that the Russian shortage of experienced and competent troops is making itself visible.

Which--in an optimal world (while taking into account that the entire tragedy of this war is sub-optimal)--still means that push will truly come to shove in two to three weeks. In other words, Putin will face a need to call for full mobilization.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to call for the US to authorize deep missile strikes into Russian territory--a desperate necessity, but here... there is also a trap. Which I will note at the end of this report.

But first, a quick aside: there are still those who have simply not failed to support the hard hit civilian population of Ukraine, and one of these remains Henryk Podsiadly, whose Christian Joy Foundation/Chrześcijańska Fundacja Radość has delivered incredible amounts of aid in the form of food, supplies, electric heaters and more since the invasion of 2022.

In short, Podsiadly's organization, which is CAF validated, is still at it and he is again in the midst of a fundraising effort. I can vouch for him, as I've seen these efforts in person. For more information, check out the following links:

https://www.facebook.com/100064708599364/posts/949390617227883/?mibextid=WC7FNe&rdid=IiqT9RauvlSkm4TV

https://www.facebook.com/Fundacja.radosc

Or, if you would prefer to skip straight to the details, here they are:

Now on to the report, which will focus primarily on Kursk, the Pokrovsk front, as well as Svatove/Kupiansk.

The Kursk counteroffensive--and the Russian pushback

At this point even the most pro-Ukrainian (and conservative) observers are noting the heavy Ukrainian casualties at Kursk and the intense Russian counters that include use of artillery, swarms of drones and supposedly Wagner troops pulled out of Africa, as well as Chechen Kadyrovites.

Likewise, there have been worries from the start that Ukraine has not only weakened its defenses before the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk, but that also it is sacrificing a now very limited number of elite troops who by necessity were used to punch forward in the Kursk counteroffensive from the start.

But first, let's get oriented. Below is a map of all fronts, with the Kursk counteroffensive circled in blue.

Second, here is a map that should give a better idea of the distance between the actual Ukrainian incursion and Kursk, which although we are talking about 100 kilometers, give or take, is still a tremendous distance. (I am noting this, as recently I spoke to layman who implied that the Ukrainians were on the brink of taking Kursk itself, which is, honestly, complete fantasy).

Now below is a map made public by the International Study of War non-profit, which works hard to document the war and  primarily relies on vetted, confirmed information. (Which is not a knock--it just means that there may be changes that are not represented on the map below):

As can be seen on the above map, Russian forces (with these reportedly bolstered by said Wagner remnants, as well as by Chechens) are pushing hard southwest of Korenovo, with said forces pushing the Ukrainians back at Snagost.

Here there are seemingly endless reports of swarms of Russian drones--and these are the type of quick-diving-out-of-nowhere drones that are a terror for troops. That combined with the obvious lack of time and logistics support for Ukrainians to dig in has and will result in casualties. It is likely that Russia has or had fully taken Snagost as of 15.09, although there were conflicting reports of fighting there.

This can be seen below, and note that although I have highlighted the Russian attacks in the north, the main Russian push is southwest of Snagost, and here Ukrainian forces have been struggling with a determined assault.

That said, leave it to Ukraine to school Russia on war of maneuver, and as noted by the blue arrows still further west, once again Ukrainian forces have appeared to catch Russia off guard with a drive toward Glushkovo.

 

Once again--and despite first reports of mere "activity"--this is a mechanized drive of likely at least two battalions, and it appears that here the Ukrainians have once again exploited holes or non-existent Russian defenses.

Now what does the above actually mean? I'll refer back to this at the end of this roundup, but it does pose logistical issues for Russia. This does not mean that Kursk has accomplished its goals of draining Russian personnel for Kursk, but... stay tuned.

Kupiansk/Svatove...

Apologies that Yours Truly is generally skipping over Kharkiv, where the Russian offensive essentially burned out two months ago. There has been activity there--especially with regard to drone strikes, but let's focus on danger points.

First in Kupiansk, as can be seen by the maps below, Russia has never given up on the drive down for and through Synkivka.

Also, as a reminder, please note that Kupiansk is a key "last point" in the logistics chain mentioned in previous blogs. Cutting that chain along the blue lines (even and especially further south at Pokrovsk or Kramatorsk or Sloviansk) spells trouble for a vast amount of territory.

Below is a map focused primarily on Synkivka, and, bearing in mind that Deepstate UA is conservative with showing developments not going Ukraine's way, the simple fact that more progress has not been made over the past YEAR can be deemed a Ukrainian victory. That said, take the grey areas as highly disputed.

Kupiansk has long been a target, but a key negative choke point possibility has developed at Pishchane. While in the past I emphasized the danger of Russians targeting Borova, it appears that the combination of 1) Ukrainian resistance 2) vulnerable "open field approaches" and 3) the natural target where Ukrainian supply lines intersect with bodies of water (the Oskil and associate smaller lakes, streams, ponds, etc.) vis-a-vis Pishchane has enticed the Russians into a concerted offensive there, which has met with disconcerting success. See the map below (Russian forces have not reached this choke point--it is noted in red just to highlight the goal):

Again, this is a smart move by Russia, and while the length of a potential advance is likely limited to the Oskil, this also creates the potential for a massive gain on the part  of Russia further north--and if the Pokrovsk-Kramatorak-Sloviansk links suffer, again, a huge territorial gain that will be difficult to for Ukraine to supply and hold over the course of the autumn months.

This is a worry. But if we take the slow going for the Russians at Synkivka as a glimmer of a silver linking, there is another glimmer coming that may affect the drive at Pishchane--and that is the fact that soon the weather will change. And it will start to rain.

So we'll count that as glimmer No. 2.

The south...

Now for what has worried Yours Truly for more than a year.

Almost. We'll focus on Pokrovsk shortly. First a word on Kherson and--believe it or not--Krynky.

Take a look at the map below:

I have added in the blue arrows for Ukrainians simply to highlight that reportedly there is still fighting going on in the islands and swamp terrain (not sure how else to call it) near Krynki and Kozachi Laheri. This is beyond shocking. The Kozachi Laheri raid came more than a year ago at a time when Ukraine was attempting to find another breakthrough point, but the Russians soon drove out Ukrainians (and there has never been a preponderance of information as to what happened here. At Krynki, Ukrainians took land on the Russian side of the river and held it for most of a year despite absolutely hellish conditions and determined Russian counter attacks. It has long been written off, but somehow Ukrainians have kept up activity in the islands close to the Russian side--who knows how.

This in truth cannot be said to have any affect on the larger picture, but the bravery and tenacity of Ukrainians has to at least have an effect on Russian morale.

In other news, Russia has intensified fighting in Robotyne and in other now traditional hospots from Staromayorske up to Vulhedar and Marinka. But let's take a closer look at the most worrying matters at hand.

Pokrovsk...

Yes, it will be difficult to hold Pokrovsk. I have even seen hard-core Ukrainian bloggers--fans of Kursk that have tended to be a bit too one-sided in their analysis--admit that Pokrovsk is disrupted and that it is unlikely to hold out. But let's take a closer look:

Here is a map of the Pokrovsk situation from Aug. 6.

Now here is a map of Pokrovsk and the Russian drive toward it as of Sept. 14.

Now let's talk silver linings.

First, up until about two weeks ago, my predictions, unfortunately, were holding true. Russia was gaining ground in the direction of Pokrovsk at about one to two kilometers a day. Much of this was behind the strength of glide bombs and swarms of drones followed by meat waves followed by more skilled soldiers.

But had my prediction held true, Pokrovsk would already be in Russian hands by now.

So what happened?

Despite the naysayers who claimed it had no effect... Kursk happened.

And despite the fact that a well-placed source already (more than two weeks ago) assured Yours Truly that Russia would not take Pokrovsk, read what I just wrote again: Russia was making progress through the use of glide bombs, meat waves and then finally, at least somewhat skilled troops.

Now note: the glide bombs have not run out, but at least some drone teams (this is noted by the swarms of drones at Kursk hotspots) have likely been diverted. As have been unskilled meat waves. As have at least some skilled soldiers.

This does not mean that the fighting has lessened--the Ukrainian general staff has been the first to say this is not the case, but now note the Russian pivot south (highlighted by my arrows, but also confirmed by geo-location published by various bloggers). Yes,  it appears that Russia has been forced to change direction. This does not mean Pokrovsk is in the clear or that it has not been disrupted, but clearly there has been method to the madness of Kursk, and, again, just when Russian finally had forces in place to mount a counter attack there west of Snagost, a new Ukrainian mechanized drive has begun behind them. In fact, as of Monday morning, Sept. 16, there were somewhat surprising reports of 2,000 to 3,000 Russian soldiers suddenly caught in a cauldron between the Ukrainian drive toward Glushkovo and Ukrainian units west of Snagost. Considering that some of these are believed to be unskilled conscripts--and considering just how historically disorienting it can be to launch an offensive but to suddenly have attacking forces attacking the rear guard, it comes as no surprise that the a) Russian counter at Kursk/Snagost has slowed that b) elite forces are likely indeed being drained from other key Russian fronts and... c) Pokrovsk has yet to fall.

This is not yet cause for celebration. There is no doubt that Ukrainian forces are stretched beyond belief, and even in standard news reports Ukrainian soldiers and officers have been cited fretting over yet another cauldron/encirclement brewing south of the Pokrovsk front at Hirnyk, seen below:

Please note that the blue arrows represent not actual retreat (yet), but this is eventually anticipated.

That said, the fact that Kursk may actually be working---and that Pokrovsk is still in Ukrainian hands.. we'll call this silver lining No. 3. Yes, it is too early to say, but there is a chance that Gen. Ołeksandr Stanisławowycz Syrski's plan is not only well thought out... but that it is working.

Again--it is too early to say, but keep in mind just how much is at stake. North of Pokrovsk there is Kostiantynivka, then Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

And again, the entire chain is quite evident going north.

Which leads us to a final word. Ukraine has been pressing hard for the US and the Joe Biden administration to finally allow deep strikes with US weapons on Russian territory. Biden and co. have resisted this. And there may be real logic here.

As I have repeated endlessly in these posts, Russia is running short of men. Within a couple of weeks this may become critical, which theoretically would force Putin to call for full mobilization. This will not go down well, and in fact it could threaten his future reign. That said, Putin has made it clear that he will regard the US authorizing long-range strikes as essentially NATO having declared war on Russia.

Is this bluff? Yes and no. Putin does not want to risk war with NATO or the US so nuclear saber rattling is what it is. However, there is a deeper move at play here: if long-range strikes are authorized, Putin will be able to call for full mobilization at far lessened risk to his presidency or physical person. In short, in his mind--and he will be banking that also in the mind of fellow Russians--full mobilization will be justified.

True, there are no easy choices here, no crystal balls for Biden or Syrski or Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelenskyy. But Putin's Russia--not only Ukraine--is coming under real pressure. True, in all this is the faintest of glimmers, but there are finally signs that at least in the field the Russian war machine is grinding to a halt.

And the rain and mud is yet to come.

Slava Ukrainii and God bless.

Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.

Maps courtesy of Deep State UA.

Gen. Syrski (right) reviewing the Pokrovsk front courtesy of Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.