War in Ukraine Update for Aug. 6, 2024
Greetings and salutations, and yes, this is the somewhat delayed Ukrainian War Update, as Yours Truly did mean to put this out a week ago.
And then in the middle of the week.
And then on Friday. (But nobody reads anything on Friday).
A troubling and primarily factor behind this delay was the rapidly changing scenario on the ground--over the last 10 days gaining fresh information from various sources in time to keep up with such changes was a challenge. That said the current scenario is not all negative, but it is in general overwhelmingly disconcerting.
But before we dig in, allow me to paraphrase one of the many summaries that appeared on the internet last week in honor of the Polish Uprising, which Poles commemorate Aug. 1 en masse with quite a bit of singing, smoke, flares and patriotism (and yes, despite some bad apples, there is a great deal of sincere--and deserved--pride and patriotism here).
As background, beginning Aug. 1, 1944 the Polish Home Army (AK) took it to the German occupying forces in an uprising of such ferocity tht it caught said occupiers off guard to the point of sending them reeling from the center of the city. Yet soon the Germans regrouped to punish the AK, which was outnumbered, outgunned and severely lacking in supplies. In the end, Warsaw was all but razed, civilians and combatants were massacred. And while official statistics put the casualty figure at 150,000-200,000, I have seen believable stats published in Polish that would put the figure at 250,000..
A bit more history: Warsaw Uprising lasted 63 days. And during that time Josef Stalin was quite content to allow the upstart Poles to fight it out alone against a vastly superior force. And during that time the Allies--for a variety of reasons--could not, did not or would not deliver aid to a level that might have turned the tide or at least prevent the complete destruction of Warsaw, not to mention utter capitulation. Some historians have blamed the leadership of the AK for launching the uprising without coordination with the West (and also with the assumption that Russian forces would come to their aid).
Yet none other than George Orwell stated the following:
"I want to protest against the mean and cowardly attitude adopted by the British press towards the recent rising in Warsaw. ... One was left with the general impression that the Poles deserved to have their bottoms smacked for doing what all the Allied wirelesses had been urging them to do for years past,. ... First of all, a message to English left-wing journalists and intellectuals generally: 'Do remember that dishonesty and cowardice always have to be paid for. Don't imagine that for years on end you can make yourself the boot-licking propagandist of the Soviet régime, or any other régime, and then suddenly return to mental decency. Once a whore, always a whore.'"
Now replace the word "British" with "West" and consider the slow delivery of supplies, the push to launch a counter-offensive last summer despite a lack of tanks, lack of air cover and lack of surprise.
And ask yourself: does this not all sound a bit too familiar?
But enough preaching. Let's dig into the current realities, starting with the Kharkiv front.
But no, hold on. There has been one very positive development. The F-16s--at least some of them (or semi-specifically... several)--have arrived.
Several anyway. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the possible had become possible, and Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen--relevant because these F-16s have been transferred from Denmark--noted that military targets in Russia are on the table, as there has been so far "too much talking" about what Ukraine can and cannot do when the focus should be to "win the war."
Right on.
Finally.
At least twice F-16s have been sighted over Ukraine. This will be a story to watch, however, as Russia is very angry (and the hypocrite thermometer is through the roof on this point), and it has threatened to target F-16s on the ground, implying that this also means in EU member states. Expect extremely aggressive moves to shoot an F-16 down or hit one somewhere on the ground in Ukraine, as again, Russia values PR victories--and the West's record on being wishy-washy historically and now simply is not ideal.
Meanwhile, this week Ukraine continued its targeting of anything in the Black Sea (odd that a country with essentially no navy has taught Russia--and likely plenty of other watching navies--a lesson here), and reportedly it managed to sink a Russian Kilo-class submarine, the Rostov-on-Don while also destroying S-400 anti-aircraft/air defence systems.
That said, often such news seems to be highlighted when the land war going gets rough. And since we've last covered this, it's been rough, with Toretsk and Niu York seeing dramatic Russian advances, but with the current Russian drive for Pokrovsk likely the most significant danger at this time. Add to this a potential Russian push in the south and the broader picture is sobering indeed.
But let's start in the north and work down.
Kharkiv/Vovchansk
Again, to refresh, below is a map showing the various fronts in the war:
Now on to Kharkiv. As noted weeks ago, the Kharkiv offensive has basically burnt out. Russians have simply lost too many men, and there are arguments surfacing on both sides that indicate that Russian elite forces are now so degraded that the threat is for the most part over. This, however, does not mean that intense fighting is not still under way, and this has been seen perhaps most dramatically at Vovchansk with Russians hitting Ukrainians with bombardment from the air.
Ukrainian resistance there has been nothing short of heroic, and there still is much at stake, as the closer Russian forces get to the actual city of Kharkiv, the more Russian artillery comes into play. The map below highlights Russian activity (and remember that the grey areas are typically based on drone, air or artillery attacks on Ukrainian forces, which allows mappers to identify key battle points.
That said, it's slow going there for Russia right now, with far more worrying developments on other fronts.
It should also be said that the Russian "meat waves" were, especially six to eight weeks ago, intense. A source noted the endless suicide attacks, calling them "zombie attacks," and despite the better covered meat waves a Chasiv Yar and beyond the Avdiivka/Bakhmut front, the Russian attrition rate here was likely extremely high. In fact, the Russian 83rd Rifle Brigade, which is still noted as the primary Russian brigade at Vovchansk is seen to have been especially hard hit. Good news for the Ukrainians, but still--despite clear signs of strain in Russia, which include offers of the equivalent of USD 20,000 to sign up for the army and payouts promised to families of soldiers--Russia can still afford to lose vastly more troops than can Ukraine.
Kupiansk
Russian forces have made clear headway at Synkivka, and while slowed there, they are now in position to threaten Kupiansk. Ukrainian forces have had plenty of time to dig in, and Russia faces a difficult slog to break there there, but this may be the first time that a true, concerted effort is being seen in terms of air strikes, glide bombs and thermobarics. Of late, such concentrations of glide bombs and thermobarics have been too much for Ukrainian defenders. However, as can be seen further south, especially at Pischane, Russian drives are not inconsequential, and this will threaten supply lines from Borova to Kupiansk and even still further south that could allow major Russian gains by September.
The map below emphasizes the general supply line defense (in blue) that must remain intact, both to guarantee movement of ammunition of men north and south or to prevent a pocket from forming between Pischane and Kupianks that would mean a desperate and difficult pullout for defenders there.
With regard to Pischane, note the differences between the most recent update and current gains, which now most immediately threaten Kolisnykivka/Hluskivka.
Map of Pischane from July 23, 2024
Russian Pischane gains as of Aug. 3, 2024. Not only have the Russians taken most of the city, but note the expanded grey disputed areas. Once this town is completely taken, it may be difficult for Ukraine to stop a targeted advance for the aforementioned supply lines and Kolisnykivka/Hluskivka, which would cut said lines and create the aforementioned pocket.
Map of Pischane from Aug. 3, 2024
Further south, Russia forces have also made gains at Andrivka, with Borova and said supply lines remaining a key target. Not shown below are also Russian gains at Makivka, with some Russian bloggers stating that this city has effectively fallen (although this has been disputed by Ukraine.
Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar
The Chasiv Yar meat waves have continued with Russia attempting to make as much progress during the summer months both there and further south at Toretsk. Konstiantinyvka remains an obvious key goal for Russian forces, as taking this supply hub would cripple Ukraine north along the key Kramatorsk-Sloviansk (and up to Borova) supply route.
Most concerning are reports over the Aug. 3-4 weekend that Russian troops are already in Toretsk and/or that it is on the verge of falling completely. This is noted further down in this blog, but first a few key maps.
The Konstiantinyvka-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk line (also showing Toretsk further south (please note that this "line" is created by Yours Truly as a reference, and it has not been referred to that by Ukrainian armed forces).
Over the past seven days, fierce battles have been reported at Klischiivka and Andriivka, with some Russian bloggers stating that progress has been seen now at Andriivka. Ukrainian sources have otherwise reported equally fierce counter attacks to head off the Russian 85th separate motorized rifle brigade, as well as a supposed hodgepodge of meat-wave recruits.
Note again that while Pokrovsk further south is a clear goal, a more immediate Russian goal is Konstiantinyvka, and a source for The Corners highlighted that Ukrainian forces will likely hold fast here and do anything possible to stop this logistics crossroads from being taken. This brings the focus to what was once known as the Avdiivka front, but that town has now vanished behind Russian advances that began with the previously mentioned rotation mistake at Ocheteryne (seen straight East from Pokrovsk)-which has since resulted in massive gains by Russia in multiple directions, including up to Toretsk just north of the Niu York advances. That said, it appears that the Russians may have been slowed here or stopped, which is positive news considering difficulties faced east of Ocheteryne, specifically at Ivanivka, Vesele and Serhivka.
In the preceding map (above) the Niu Work pocket, and here possibly took place the supposed breakout/mutiny of Ukrainian forces (again hat did or did not happen).. Primarily Russian bloggers have stated that trapped Ukrainian forces disobeyed orders and escaped that pocket, although neither Deepstate UA mapping nor Ukrainian sources confirmed this, and this was quite possibly just Russian propaganda.
That said, it does appear that this very pocket is collapsing, and from the Russian side bloggers are gleefully proclaiming that much of that pocket (the southern portion) has essentially already been taken. Below a close up of the Niu York pocket can be seen, and there are now reports that Zalizne has likely fallen entirely into Russian hands. Whatever the case for the defenders in that pocket, they are likely already pulling out or encircled or close to it. If they are encircled and have not pulled out, this will be a serious blow to the Ukrainian war effort. The truth of the matter should become evident in the next few days.
Further south, fierce fighting has been reported at Ivanivka and Vesele (and note that Prohres, which was still at least partially in Ukrainian hands as of the last update has long since fallen, as has Vovche. Here Russian progress is especially aggressive and worrying,as marked changes have taken place only over the past few days, backed by elements of the 15th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, as well as the 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
Ivanivka/Prohres/Pokrovsk front as of Aug. 2, 2024
Ivanivka/Prohres/Pokrovsk front as of Aug. 5, 2024
Further south, Russian forces have driven sharply up north along the Vovcha and Vodiana lakes, creating a pocket risk south of Novoselivka Persha, but a a terribly dangerous pocket for Ukrainian forces facing off against the Russian 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Likewise, Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian forces and possible reinforcements at Vodiane are reported to be highly intense, although Ukrainian forces apparently are holding fast.
This pocket and the dangers presented here become quite evident when terrain/waterways are highlighted.
Likewise, further south Russian forces have been noted to be pushing straight north from Krasnohorivka, athough geolocation has also over the past days noted Russian advances straight West, likely due to elements of the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Battalion from the 114th Infantry Brigade.
Staromayorske
Further south there have been reported Russian advances at Kostiantynivka and Vuhledar, but Staromayorske/Urozhaine is perhaps most difficult to ignore. A year ago Staromayorske represented hope that somewhere, somehow the Ukrainian counteroffensive would produce a breakthrough. While Ukrainian forces became bogged down in Staromayorske itself and thus unable to drive directly south, a breakthrough at Urozhaine did add hope to hope. No the situation has been more than reversed with Russian forces even according to Deepstate UA mapping having taken not only almost all of Staromayorske, but with Urozhaine to esssentially now being fully in Russian hands. This is a dramatic, if not traumatic development, as this correspondent was noting only a few weeks ago that battled-hardened Ukrainian troops were still holding on in Urozhaine and giving Russian troops hell. Yet Ukraine still does not have a solution for glide bombs--although maybe the several newly arrived F-16s will help.
Robotyne/Zaporizhzhia front
Although the current mapping may not appear to differentiate greatly from the previous report, there are disturbing signals that a new Russian offensive is underway, and that the clear goal is to drive straight north from Robotyne. The strategy appears to be the same as that seen in other fronts--i.e. use heavy glide bombs and close support to punish hardened but now depleted Ukrainian forces. That said, Deepstate UA maps are not yet noting much in the way of changes, as seen below.
Map from July 23
Map from Aug. 5, 2024
And once again we come to the end of the update.
God bless the Ukrainian nation. Slava Ukrainii, and prayers that the tide will once again turn.
Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl
Photo credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Destruction in the Vinnytsia Oblast after Russian attack,_2024-08-03_(02).webpDsns.gov.ua, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.
All maps courtesy of Deepstate UA.