Russia gaining ground, but Ukraine appears to have outlasted the summer offensive...

Once again, the propaganda cycles are running wild in Ukraine, with Russia attempting to celebrate a victorious summer offensive and Ukrainian sources claiming (also victoriously) that this year's Russian push has failed.

The truth of the matter?

We’ll get to that in a moment.

But first, where there lie no doubts, is another truth. Vladimir Putin’s Russia remains dedicated and hellishly bent on genocide, with every other day marking yet another “record breaking” number of missiles, drones and… atrocities committed against the civilian population.

Again—this is genocide. It has always been genocide. Yet the West seems to have been dulled by endless reports of strikes, civilian casualties and deaths and general mayhem. But just take a look at the attached video, provided by AspenAid, which remains dedicated to providing support in terms of rescue equipment and both physical and emotional rehab for soldiers and civilians both. That 10-second video gives a glimpse of the instant havoc wreaked by indiscriminate bombings from afar.

But certainly don’t take it just from me. What follows is an appeal from AspenAid’s Mike Houlehan, who continues to spend weeks at a time (and longer) on the ground in Ukraine—and who also continues to bear witness to suffering caused by the ambitions of a very sick man.

“Friends, as I write this in Kyiv the sirens are warning of another impending air attack. Thursday we were hit with a massive ballistic missile and drone bombardment that lasted for hours. The second biggest attack on Kyiv of the war.

“Our White House response basically states that if you are being raped & brutally assaulted you are to blame for trying to defend yourself. I have lived through multiple attacks in multiple cities, towns and villages.

“It is pure terrorism to achieve imperial ends, and is the historic norm of Russia. I am sick of the moral leadership the USA so deservedly had earned, being trashed and discarded by the disgraceful, dishonorable, not honest words and actions of the US Administration to date.

“I am witness to incredible courage and the embodiment of ‘give me liberty, or give me death.’ Our history, Ukraine's present.”

The strikes he is referring to took place on Aug. 28, with the White House unbelievably comparing such attacks to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.

As cited by international media, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted the attack, which targeted residential areas and which killed at least 23, including four children. At least 63 other civilians were injured in the attacks.

When queried on the strike, US President Donald Trump stated that he was “not surprised.”

Neither were Ukrainians.

And neither were volunteers on the ground.

In truth, strikes on civilians have been the norm since the beginning of the war. As has the torture, rape and murder of civilians in occupied territories and the kidnapping of thousands of Ukrainian children.

Moreover, emergency services, ranging from fire brigades to ambulance corps have been targeted specifically either en-route to strikes or on the site itself in Russian double-type hits that are war crimes in and unto themselves.

Houlehan’s Aspen Aid workers see this on a routine basis. With a pair of examples only from the last seven days seen below:

Take a hard look. As Houlehan stated, this is the norm. Ambulances and their personnel are targeted daily.

What kind of nation does this?

That said, and unfortunately, somewhat as predicted, Putin continues to back himself into a corner. Recent waves of drone strikes have not "only" targeted Ukrainian residential areas, but they have also hit civilian trains, and possibly more importantly in the cynical world of international politics, EU and British council offices, US and Turkish companies operating in Ukraine and the  embassy of Azerbaijan.

And no, nobody truly believes these strikes were accidental.

And there are other damning developments, chiefly Russian withdrawing from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture. This should not be considered much of a surprise. Read more about it here:

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-calls-russias-withdrawal-from-convention-preventing-torture-admission-of-guilt/

Europe waking up... but Trump?

Consistent readers will note that Your Truly has not been impressed by the Trump administration's take on the war. Neither have I been impressed by European weapons supply and drip-feed sanctions games. Yet, as predicted, Putin's meeting with Trump in Alaska (if that was indeed the real Putin) has de facto boxed Russia into a corner. By that time Trump had already voiced frustrations with Putin's lip service approach to peace. Yet the Alaska discussions (which for as yet-to-be revealed reasons appeared to shock Trump aides) had the potential to embarrass Trump (which they probably had) if only because Putin's drive to continue to prosecute the war would no longer be something even the US president could deny.

The expected play would be continued attacks, yet possibly on a slightly lower level. This would have allowed Putin or his favorite mouthpiece, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, to fake goodwill and further blame Ukraine for aggression. Instead, Russia essentially flipped off the West with an increase in all-in gambles from Pokrovsk to Kupiansk, continued drone strikes on the civilian population and the aforementioned strikes on US and EU companies, EU missions and the embassy of Azerbaijan.

This has prompted sharper-than-the-norm criticism from the EU and what may finally be a true drive to stop Russian aggression. This includes the EU training of Ukrainian military in Ukraine (which could very well mean the appearance of European special forces types in the country); the coalition of... a coalition of the willing, which is now being pushed by French President Emanuelle Macron and finally the arrival of and commitment to providing billions in aid  and weapons to the country.

This last point is (finally) nothing to sneeze at. Reportedly, thousands of rounds of artillery ammunition have been suddenly supplied by...  Azerbaijan (which also, reportedly, began producing said rounds specifically for Ukraine in early August). Likewise, cheap(er) US Eram missiles are due to be delivered to Ukraine, also by the thousands. The proof will be in the pudding--and there are questions as to how such missiles will be used in practice (how quickly can they be adapted to Ukrainian fighter-bombers)--but sources have told The Corners that they are highly effective and that "not even underground fortifications are safe." At any rate, there is no doubt that the cocktail of ERAMs, the new Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missile and Ukrainian-built long-distance drones dramatically impact the war.

But the EU is... still the EU

But back to the EU. Apart from direct allocations from existing EU programs (some EUR 18 bln will be distributed in 2025), there is now serious talk of using frozen Russian assets--to the tune of EUR 200 bln--to rebuild Ukraine at the end of the war. Which is good news... sort of.

I often wonder how the West continues to misunderstand Russia. First, such a move--while ostensibly helpful to  Ukraine--is just yet another motivation for Russia to draw out the war/take even more of Ukraine. Second, this is the kind of news instantly used in Russia in "you see--the West has always been against us," and for Ukraine (unless the plan is to take this money and instantly spend it on weapons), there is no short-term gain. It smacks of typical EU talk-instead-of-action (which it is), and in the meantime Russia continues to increase terror in the form of drone and missile attacks and in terms of pushing forward (or attempting to) across much of the front.

Yet two other questions remain: will such frozen asset transfer hold up legally over the long term? Understand that justifying "support for the war" in court is quite a different thing than arguments ranging from "hey, it's obvious" or "it's an open secret." And keep in mind that the EU is also talking about disbursing such funds... after the war ends--i.e at a time that it can be assumed that Russian oligarchs (or at least their lawyers) will be quite active when it comes to reclaiming funds.

But also there is a second question--i.e. this appears to have already taken place to some degree. According to various media citing EU sources, in August some EUR 1 bln was transferred through EU mechanisms to Ukraine... and these were from frozen Russian accounts in the West.

So in the end it's pretty much: 1) Do today what probably won't actually happen tomorrow and/or 2) make sacrifices to help country in need--but use your own money.

Unfortunately, the EU is good at neither.

But I guess we'll see.

On the ground...

Now a quick rundown of what is actually happening in the East.

First, a quick reminder as to the shape of the front in question. (Again, I will not focus on Sumy or Kharkiv--not saying these are not important, but our focus will remain on the Pokrovsk to Kupiansk section of the front.)

Below is an example of exactly the section of the front that continues to most worry Yours Truly. The blue line is (very roughly) the Ukrainian defense/logistics line in terms of key logistics roads and waterways. The green areas with red question marks are the sections that are endangered by Russian advances--and yes, there is the risk that this could all fall due to widespread Russian pressure, but more specifically due to the fighting in and around Pokrovsk, the push to the Oskil north of Borova (and the push to Borova) and also fighting near Kupiansk.

We will review from south to north, but actually let's start further south than Pokrovsk for two reasons: 1) Yes, the Russians are pushing hard across all fronts, trying to make the most of the summer while it still can (and here there is some truth to Russian claims that it is constantly gaining ground and yes, worry that the Russian summer offensive has not yet failed and is not yet over are real, and 2) the Ukrainians are indeed stretched: any Russian pressure anywhere near Pokrovsk affects the entire stability of the front(s) to the north.

Circled below is the Pokrovsk area that we will shortly discuss. Further north (noted by blue arrows) are where the Ukrainians are also coming under pressure by the Russian 57th and 60th Motorized Rifle Brigades; the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment; the 36th and 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment. Much of the push is in the direction of Prosiana and Pokrovske (not to be confused with Pokrovsk to the north). This fighting has been intense, but not without Ukrainian successes, and reportedly on Aug. 30 Ukraine recaptured the village of Zelenyi Hal (approximately, located under the top blue arrow on the map below) and seen at the top of the second map.

Pokrovsk...

What still remains a key focus point in the war, Pokrovsk is under ever more intense pressure from the south, with Russian claims ranging from the Russians having entered Pokrovsk (again) with small sabotage or special forces teams to Russians having taken Myrnohrad. That said, the remarkable defense of what is left of this key logistics hub is increasingly appearing to be a… Ukrainian victory, and Russian bloggers and critics (actually in Russia) have called out the Russian military for both lack of progress and polishing supposedly gains.

By the way, we’ll see how long this lasts, as new Russian laws (ever more Draconian) have essentially outlawed on-line research and reporting that might be perceived as negative for the state.

Meanwhile, Russian reinforcements that attempted to pour in following the infamous breach in Ukrainian lines (which will be discussed shortly) have faced high casualties, and both infantry and mechanized artillery moved into the sector has been hit hard. Now Russian tanks that followed have also taken hits—so again, while there is no denying that Russia is still pushing forward—sometimes gaining meters, something gaining kilometers, it is difficult to continue with claims (popular among some MAGAs in the West) that the war is already over.

Russia has about 20 percent of Ukraine. It is gaining, but in tiny increments after suffering a million casualties or more—and it’s economy and oil supplies are crippled.

If that has not yet sunk in, it should.

In fact, credit should be given where credit is due. Ukrainian intelligence has not only mapped out refineries and logistics across Russia, but it is hitting targets even at distance at an astounding rate. And tales of Russians stuck at the pumps--not to mention fuel crises that are hitting everything from industry to agriculture--are true.

Some estimates have put cuts to Russian supply at more than 20 percent. And if Russia cannot supply China or India, due to disruptions and domestic needs... it may find that friends are in short supply.

But there is another factor here. Russian crude is now being sold at about USD 62 a barrel, down from more than USD 100 only three years ago. This price is likely to continue to fall, which means Russian state revenue has taken a massive hit. And it's not going to rebound any time soon.

In short, as I have previously mentioned, constant small gains and a reign of terror is not winning on a strategic level.

In other words, Ukraine can still win this.

But again, I digress.

So let's go back to the maps, specifically to the Russian prong to the north of Pokrovsk (seen below):

Much was made in the press over this (and by Yours Truly as well), but if you remember, I also stated that the true results will become clear not over the next days, but over the next weeks--because, yes, the Ukrainians are making a fight of this indeed.

As seen below, the Ukrainians cut the head off the Russian drive while also hitting the flanks hard in the west. This did happen. A week ago. What has happened since is... honestly anyone's guess. Reports that Russian pockets have been eliminated are quite likely simply not true. Reports that Russia has pumped in men and equipment and that the Ukrainians have suddenly lost their counterattack initiative are also probably not true.

What is undoubtedly true is that both sides are involved in a bloody fight where the front lines simply do not exist (and increasingly this seems to be the case in other areas of the front line, which may well be working in Ukraine's favor). And if there are any doubts, the blue portions are DeepstateUA's work, based on confirmed reports of Ukrainian troop presence, with the pink/red areas being Russia. And the gray?

Disputed. Back and forth. Which means... well, we'll see.

That said, as the map below indicates, Ukrainian troops, believed to be at least in part Azov units, have used forested areas and terrain to hit hard, with Russian groupings likely stuck in semi open areas and under constant drone attacks.

Or so we would hope.

At this point it pays again to remember just what is at stake. Should Ukraine lose Pokrovsk (and keep in mind the lines to the north were indeed breached and they will be difficult to stabilize), the entire northern segment up to where the Russians have reached the Oskil (north of Borova) could eventually fall, and it goes without saying that the Kupiansk-Kivsharivka pocket is in danger. But it is also forested, lacking decent roads and in some places dense (and soon to be very wet).

Here, the Russians have a tough task indeed.

But first a closer look at the region north of Pokrovsk and the "Russian fork-breakthrough," and here I am referring to Kostiantynivka to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. At press time, Kostiantynivka was reported to be under glide-bomb attack, but even so some civilians have still decided to remain both there and in Kramatorsk, which has also faced aerial attack. But interesting is that south and north of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian forces are holding their own, countering Russian attacks at Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, and here it is also noteworthy that at both points the maps have changed (relatively) little over past weeks.

But again, time to put this in perspective. Month after month throughout 2023 and 2024 Russian casualties were estimated to come to between 1500 and sometimes 2500 a month. As some may remember, Yours Truly was all but scandalized, and yes, I did state unequivocally that these figures were low.

Yet the fact is that 2025 has been on a completely different scale. This time, I would caution that the figures are too high, but there is no doubt that Russian casualty rates have been out of control, and on Aug. 31, the Institute for the Study of War stated that "the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered a total of 290,000 personnel casualties throughout the entire theater from January to August 2025, an average of 36,250 casualties per month."

And that may be true. But even if casualty rates are half that amount...

Russia should officially be declared collectively insane.

Borova and Kupiansk... the fighting is desperate, but yes, there is good news

As noted in the last update, Russian assaults south of Borova and north of Kupiansk were a worry. They still are a worry. However, over recent days the news has filtered back that, yes, once again Ukraine's forces in that sector have effectively counterattacked at both locations, and once again Russian forces have been halted. (And note that, unbelievably, little, absolutely flattened Synkivka still remains a hot point, which has been the case for at least 18 months).

That said, Kupiansk still remains under threat, with the 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 27th Rifle Brigade and the 122nd Motorized Rifle Brigade looming heavy and hard.

 

Which is plenty to absorb, I know.

So how to sum up. Maybe...

Trump's patience will run out. (Or he will be forced to actually act and hit back with real sanctions and tariffs).

Maybe...

The EU will band together and buy (and be allowed to buy) billions in US weapons.

And maybe...

The Russian economy will break, and the powers that support Putin will finally come to their senses and... sort him out.

Yes, those are big maybes. But what is certain is that Ukraine has not yet broken, and it shows no sign of breaking now. If anything, drone innovation, flexibility and quick reaction time on the fronts and the knowledge of what comes with Russian occupation is forcing the nation to hold firm.

And maybe it is certain that the cost has been horrific. And that the country will never recover. But bear in mind that I am now talking about Russia, not Ukraine. For I'm old enough to remember Russia's war in Afghanistan--a conflict that helped tear the Soviet Union apart, which impacted Russian leadership and which was a huge factor in the lead up to the fall of the Iron Curtain.

In that conflict Russia suffered some 50,000 casualties. In Ukraine? One-million (and probably a few hundred-thousand more).

Putin's blown it. Maybe he doesn't want to see it. Maybe the MAGAs don't want to see it.

But the numbers are undeniable.

So no, it's not Ukraine can still win this. Not this week.

I'm certain that Russia has already lost.

Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.

Maps courtesy of DeepstateUA. 

Photos courtesy of AspenAid.