Ukrainian War Update Aug. 10 [battlefield only]

(Please note that these reports will typically be issued Thursdays of every week–usually on Patreon, but hey, this week it’s open for everyone. But more maps/details on Patreon.)

[Note—due to time constraints, general news will appear in Friday’s political/intrigue roundup.]

Battlefield update

Amid press reports signifying more pessimism in the West—and worries that the blame game will begin between Ukraine and the West over small gains vs. slow weapons deliveries, Ukraine has continued the offensive with surprising strikes in the south. Russia, however is on the offensive in the north with a full counteroffensive of its own in Kupiansk.

Kupiansk-Svatove fronts

As noted in the updates and also in the vlog, the Russian buildup of an estimated 100,000 troops has become a full-fledged counteroffensive in Kupiansk, although the push toward Borova further south in Svatove has slowed.

In the Kupiansk sector, there have been reports of Ukrainians falling back, possibly falling back from Kupiansk itself, as full evacuation from that town was ongoing as of Aug. 9. Russian forces have been reported to be pushing not only from Lyman Pershyi, but also from further north and south of that vicinity. Synkivka is seen as being under severe pressure, but there are signs that Ukraine is readying for a make-it-or-break it fight at Kupiansk.

In Svatove the Russian drive toward Borova appears to have been stopped, although in the north Russian forces are targeting Novoselivske and they could have room to run there, as there are few geographical defenses where Ukraine could naturally dig in and reinforce lines. The battle over Nadiya is still ongoing, although Russia is likely in control of this settlement. That said, Ukrainian forces further south seem to be on the offensive and moving toward Novoiehorivka.

Donetsk front

Bakhmut

In Bakhmut Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian troops, reportedly with special forces to the north of the city, but no progress has been reported. Kliskchivka has been called a Ukrainian success, and the northern part of the town is probably in Ukrainian hands, but counterattacks have been sharp, and there are reports of significant losses on both sides. The Ukrainians have also targeted Andriivka slightly further south, but no gains were reported.

Staromaiorske

Ukrainians may be holding the center or most of the center of Staromaiorske, but they are being shelled from higher ground to the south and also are under continuous attacks from aviation. Attempts to take the heights to the south have not been successful as of Aug.9. As predicted, Ukrainian forces have pushed hard toward Uhorozainy from various directions and have likely taken part of this settlement, but again troops have suffered under artillery, drone and aviation attacks.

Ukrainian attacks further south at Pryutne were ongoing, but no update was reported.

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne

Robotyne has remained a focus for Ukraine despite very hard going and entrenched Russian positions and multiple lines. The Ukrainians may have lost some areas on the front lines to the east of Robotyne, although there are signs that through sheer force of will Ukrainian forces have possibly broken through the first line of defense and are moving in the direction of Novoprokopivka, although this means a push through mine fields and two more lines of defense. A larger goal would be to attempt to break through for a run at Tokmak. Again, this is very slow going and Western press reports have cited unnamed US military sources stating that Ukraine has suffered very high losses.

Kherson

A surprising development revealed Aug. 9 were commando raids across the Dnipro River to gain a foothold near Kozachi Laheri. Possibly seven groups and under 50 commandos crossed the river and briefly exploited a weakened section of Russian lines in that location. An advance of close to 1,000 meters may have taken place, but Ukrainian forces were met then with fierce counterattacks, shelling and attacks from aviation. It appears, that Ukrainian forces may have had to fall back after taking casualties, and noteworthy was a statement by the Ukrainian government which summed up came to “wait for an official statement.” This “not confirmed” statement by Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar did not inspire confidence that the raids had created a solid foothold on the other side of the Dnipro.

The raids, however, may signal a new focus for Ukraine, as there are fewer defensive lines and less in terms of minefields in this vicinity. Likewise, the distance to Crimea is significantly shorter, and there is the possibility that Russian lines could be cut while Russia’s dominance of the Black Sea could eventually be threatened.

Noteworthy is also that Ukraine has also hit key bridges with missile strikes (Chonhar and Henichesk).

Much further afield Russian news reports and Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL) reported Aug. 9 that the Sergiyev Posad optical plant, approximately 70 kilometers outside Moscow, was the location of a large explosion, with one person killed and 43 injured with head injuries and serious burns. The source of the strike was not known, although Russia announced that it had downed drones the same day.

Map courtesy of Deepstate.UA.