[Please note that maps are provided on the Patreon version of this update.]

Ukrainian Independence Day brought with it a stunning bevy of news, with by far the most sensational came in the form of the death of both Wagner boss Evgeniy Prigozhin and Wagner No. 2, Dmitry Utkin, a former GRU officer who was seen as a key component in Wagner operations.

While there was a great deal of misinformation following initial reports—with various bloggers on both sides of the war suggesting that Prigozhin may not have been on the plane, which was reported to have crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino in the Tver Region. That said, a wide variety of news sites and open source (OSINT) specialists have confirmed the downing of an Embraer aircraft with 10 persons on board. Both Prigozhin and Utkin have been also confirmed as having been on the flight, which had no survivors.

Just how the plane crashed may remain officially cloudy—at least on the part of the Kremlin—although OSINT sites and Western officials have all but unequivocally stated that it was brought down by Russian anti-aircraft fire. Russian sources have noted that the aircraft transponder was turned off shortly before the crash, which may have resulted in mis-identification of the aircraft, but an “accident” is not widely believed.

Prigozhin needs no introduction, as “Putin’s chef” was also known to be the founder and main motivator behind the Wagner group, which only two months ago began an aborted drive on Moscow, which surprisingly saw Wagner mercenaries take control of Russian’s primary headquarters for the war in Ukraine in Rostov-on-Don. In surreal fashion, a Wagner convoy drove almost unimpeded in the direction of Moscow only to see Prigozhin abort the drive, reportedly thanks to intervention and promises of safety from Belarussian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko.

Yet promises from Lukashenko and even Putin himself appear to have meant nothing, as statements by Russian authorities that would indicate an explosion on board do not appear to hold water. Put simply, videos indicate the plane was missing a wing shortly after an explosion, and blogger reports and posted photographs are more indicative of a missile strike.

With regard to Utkin, he was known as a key officer behind Russia’s successful taking of Bakhmut and other front-line operations. He was also a veteran of GRU’s Spetsnatz, wars in Chechnya and Syria.

The killings are likely to prompt questions regarding Putin’s hold on power in Russia, as this time around Putin’s revenge will likely been seen as 1) a show of weakness and 2) an example that his word (and that of Lukashenko) is simply no good.

Ukraine has been quick to point out that this is also an example as to why there can be no serious negotiations with Russia—and Ukrainian sources have claimed that there is growing conflict between the Russian armed forces and the FSB, with the FSB wanting the dismissal of Russian generals Sergey Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov. Interestingly, Prigozhin supposedly initiated his drive to Moscow due to alleged incompetence on the part of both generals.

There is also news—although cloudy—of Russian Gen. Sergey Surovikin, who while seen as extremely confident, was also seen as having had information about the Wagner uprising prior to the actual coup attempt. Surovikin then disappeared, along with a number of other officers, and now he has been said to have been dismissed from his position. There are now various theories as to whether or not he may reappear—perhaps in Africa—or whether he may also eventually be killed. In short, only Putin knows.

Battlefield update

Kupiansk

Fierce fighting remains ongoing on the Kupiansk front, with much of this focused on the settlement of Synkivka, which was always tiny, but not appears depopulated. That said, Russian claims that it had taken Synkivka also appear to be disinformation, with the settlement in Ukrainian hands.

Likewise, it appears that the Russian drive toward Kupiansk itself has likely slowed down or stalled, with Ukrainian reinforcements having bolstered that city following evacuation of citizens over the last two weeks.

Russian forces have attempted to drive toward Petropavlivka, and that settlement has been a target for Russian artillery. Here again, it appears that Ukrainian forces have stopped the Russian drive prior to the actual settlement, with Ukrainian counterattacks ongoing. It is possible that the Russian offensive in Kupiansk has severely slowed, although reports of a large to massive Russian buildup for that front are still constant.

Svatove front

Further south, it also appears that the Ukrainians have countered the Russian offensive, with geo-located maps appearing to indicate that Ukraine is now in control of the settlement of Nadiya and that Ukraine is driving toward Raihorodka, with Novoselivke also under attack by Ukrainian forces.

Here it appears that a potential Russian drive toward Borova has burned out.

Bakhmut

There is little news from the north of Bakhmut. South of Bakhmut there are reports of Ukrainians again having entered Klishchiivka, and fierce fighting is again under way there. There are no new reports of progress or a lack of progress at Andriivka.

Further south, Russian forces may have withdrawn from Marinka, although Russian forces have attempted to take Novomykhailivka, with reports of tough battles from both sides there.

Staromaiorske

This may in fact be the most interesting development in recent days, with Ukrainian forces expanding gains to the west and east of Staromaiorske. Ukraine has “liberated” Urozhaine to the west, and it has attempted to push past Urozhaine and to the east of these gains, but Russian forces appear to be shoring up defenses. Some Ukrainian forces have claimed that Zavitne Bazhanny has been reached and that troops have reached maybe even as far as Staromlynivka, but these reports are unconfirmed, and Stromlynivka is simply difficult to believe at this time. That said, a Ukrainian drive west of Uhozhaine toward Kermenchyk is likely, although Russia is seen to have control over the fields in between.

Robotyne

Ukraine is believed to have fully liberated Robotnye, with forces driving hard toward Novopoprivka. West of Robotyne forces are making a hard push toward Nesterianka. This battle is largely similar now to Staromaiorske with a push the west and east of the town in what now seems like Ukrainian standard moves. There are Russian reports that troops are dug in at the southern edge of Robotyne, but these appear unlikely and more believable are reports of heavy Russian losses, chaos and Russians falling back.

Photo of Evgeniy Prigozhin by УлПравда ТВ, CC BY 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.