Notes on grime and crime as we begin 2026...
As we ease into 2026, a number of themes have predictably recurred.
Obviously, there is the ongoing war in Ukraine (although, considering the various sub-themes, ranging from the US Donald Trump administration’s take on Ukraine, raid on Venezuela and possibly coming attack in Iran, this one is becoming more unpredictable by the moment).
But 2026 in the EU is also beginning with widespread proliferation of 1) narcotics trafficking 2) crypto-currency scams 3) and finally, the type of organized crime rings (and busts) that often entangle white-collar high fliers both from home and abroad.
So instead of a complete rundown, we’re going to run through the top or top-recurring risk points that have once again caught the eye of this correspondent/detective—although not always for the most obvious reasons.
Let’s talk narcotics…
First, here is an alt-take on history: smuggling and the trafficking of illicit goods has always played its part. It does not matter whether we are talking South America, the mafias of Italy or the leadup to the American Revolution (the seizure of John Hancock’s sloop, the Liberty, is a nice little read, btw), the rubber has typically hit the road where smugglers and politicians meet.
Ergo, let’s jump to… Albania, and a Jan. 12, 2026 statement by former Prime Minister and President (and current opposition leader) Sali Berisha that Albania has become a narco state under current Prime Minister Edi Rama.
Now before you cry out: “Albania? Who cares about Albania?” Note that Albania is now quite over-represented when it comes to controlling cocaine trafficking to Europe. In fact, Albanian groups began asserting dominance as far back as 2019, but if you need to read the above statement from a third party (let’s just say while some were thinking in kilos, the Albanians were thinking in tonnes) here you go: https://balkaninsight.com/2026/01/09/port-to-port-how-albanians-conquered-the-european-cocaine-market/
But again… should we care about Albania? Yes, if you are concerned about cocaine in Europe (and let’s not ignore the risk of… fentanyl). But first, lest there be doubt, we have multiple confirmations here in the form of the pot calling the kettle black. Let’s just say that Berish has had his ups and downs (including being put on a US sanction list for corruption), but the accusations against Rama are in fact nothing new to the point they go back several years. For the curious, here is a bit of side reading:
https://www.ftm.eu/articles/albanian-mafia-threatens-europe
Note the second article listed, in which the European Drugs Monitoring Center, which claims to cooperate with Europol, accused Rama of having used “dirty money” to essentially consolidate political power or years.
But why does this matter for non-Albanian based Europeans? We’ll dig into this in future posts, but the summary points are as follows: Albanian groups are now in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and Panama and source cocaine (and increasingly, fentanyl, directly). This goes both typically to Hamburg and Rotterdam, but also through Montenegro and Albania. Italian mafia groups support the Albanians and aid in distribution, and likely they have aided Albanian groups with regard to money-laundering and “smart investments” across Europe, such as in real estate.
This is big money. It’s become part of the socio-economic reality whether Europeans want to admit it or not.
Crypto-currency scams are the rage…
Last year I took a crypto call a minimum of two times a month, and sometimes they came in at a rate of once a week. Most of these were Polish cases, but some victims were Americans or UK nationals. Typically, victims had been wooed and tricked by crypto scammers who were not doing crypto at all. In fact, these were not even pyramid schemes. They were simply scams, which often (but not always) targeted the 60-and-over set with sophisticated sales techniques and faked documentation, but some victims were actually… serious players in the world of crypto who were looking for “smart opportunities.”
In fact, it’s the Wild West out there. And the Wild East. Toss in scam factories in both Russia and Ukraine (both allowed to exist as long as a cut goes to supporting the relevant war effort), and the chaos is dangerous.
And once that money is gone, it’s not coming back. For every highlight bust such as the now infamous Do Kwon there is an endless sea of scammers with pro skills and business expertise. Governments and government police agencies are the only truly successful institutions here, but they are primarily focused on money laundering, sanction violations, narcotics and weapons trafficking. Put simply, when it comes to the individual victim… nobody cares. Do not get taken because that money is not coming back.
Don’t dabble in the margins of society…
There is not an investigator in Central Europe (and likely not in the “Old EU” either) that has not dealt with a client who sheepishly asks what can be done about the massive bill on his credit card or debit card, following a barely remembered visit to a strip bar.
Most of the time said clients call investigators literally days after the incident. Most of the time the strip bar in question is not well-remembered because the client was indeed drugged. And we are talking seriously money. Polish Central Bureau of Investigation (CBSP) agents announced Jan. 8 that they had charged no less than 82 persons in the Go-Go game in Warsaw and Wroclaw, with some victims taking hits to the tune of up to PLN 200,000. And only days later (Jan. 12), a Gdansk court indicted 11 (although another 14 may face charges) for running prostitution rings set up Gdansk, Sopot and Nowy Tomysl, with “real estate” seized that included 17 apartments, seven properties in Gdansk and Puck, three properties in Lebork and some PLN 250,000 in cash.
Let’s just say… the market is still there, but the actors are only getting more aggressive. And upscale often does not mean safe.
Here is a tip: if a strip club has a cash point installed inside the actual club, that is not a sign of legitimacy. The standard move is to drug a client, who then—under the influence—requests “help” from a stripper or waitress, as he is simply too inebriated to punch in the PIN on his card. The stripper then punches in the PIN for a payout of enormous sums of cash—all on CCTV, which is key to beating the wrap. For she will make sure that the client takes the cash in his hands directly from the machine and then hands her the money on camera. This is all recorded, and thus the “transaction” has come from the free will of the client. Keep in mind that CCTV cameras are poor judges of inebriation. Add into the equation that clients tend finally call police far to late to effectively get blood tested, and…
Well, that money is also gone.
Which means that the golden rule is as follows: if you enter such a joint, you are a mark. You are putting your gold at risk, and there is an entire machine working against you. It’s that simple. You’d have better luck beating an underground casino.
Not that I’m recommending that.
Ukraine…
Finally, (and quite simplistically) address Ukraine. Not going to say a lot here, as a more in-depth drive through is on the way, but the following is worth bearing in mind. There are two camps with regard to the Russian economy (as well as Russian manpower). The first, more conservative camp is still sticking with the line that Russia’s economy is stronger than most believe—and the manpower (or lack thereof) issue is over-reported. This indeed may be the less risky theory. The second camp believes that Ukraine’s targeting of infrastructure and the Russian oil industry is sharply punishing what was always a shaky setup to begin with—and President Vladimir Putin’s need to implement a serious round of mobilization is a threat to his government and possibly to his person.
In short, considering the various shades of grey (read misinformation and outright lies) that come out of Russia, all of the above could actually be true. It’s a question of degrees, and the shortest answer of all points to Russian gains continuing across the entire front… Yes, Russia is still making gains, BUT somehow Ukraine at least temporarily turned the tables in Kupiansk, and has bogged down the Russians in Pokrovsk, even though Pokrovsk is no longer under Ukrainian control.
The former was a greater blow to Russian propaganda than many may have believed. The latter has continued to be a massive drain on Russian resources, which arguably has sucked key troops from other points on the line. But there is a third state of affairs—and maybe this has developed in fact over the course of a year, but this is key reality that is highly damaging for Putin himself: this being that the beyond insane number of drones in the air now has meant that the nature of the war has meant a diametric change: there is no longer an element of surprise. For anyone. Yes, heavy fog, overcast weather, snow storms, etc. do severely hamper Ukrainian drone coverage and allow Russia to launch attacks, and yes, Ukraine is not only short on men, but also on drones, but the general reality in this war has become the following: (and this has been confirmed again and again by sources for The Corners), if you are above ground, you are a target. And you probably will not live long no matter what you are up to.
This does not mean Russia will not make gains. My previous predictions noting the likely loss of territory east of the Kupiansk to Pokrovsk line is unfortunately not really in jeopardy, and this is not the only territory at risk. Russia can still move forward with glide bombs and a combination of small insertions and the occasional meat wave, but Russian opportunities have been consistently lost. Unless we count Pokrovsk (which pre-war had a population of approximately 60,000), no major city has been taken by Russia over the last year.
Russia has lost at least one million casualties in this war. Sure, it can punish Ukraine, it can attempt to freeze, bomb and otherwise obliterate civilians, but there are no signs that it is getting anywhere fast.
Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.
Photo courtesy of the Polish CBSP.