Of elections, meth, murder and (to no surprise) a fraudulent ceasefire...

This edition’s crime and subterfuge rundown boasts a worrying undercurrent.

Not a new undercurrent, mind you—think narcotics, crime gangs and Russian GRU—but worrying nonetheless.

And obviously, that undercurrent also includes the war in Ukraine.

Regarding the last, there has been massive coverage nothing the failed ceasefire talks May 16 in Turkey so we are not going to go into depth here. But note the following:

• The three key leaders needed at the talks (Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump) did not attend.
• The meeting lasted less than two hours.
• Russia demanded the four territories currently being fought over (and not completely under their control)—and allegedly left the meeting saying that if you don’t give us these now, next time we will be talking about five).
• On the upside, both sides agreed to a 1,000-man prisoner swap.

The believers will see the silver lining and will state: at least the two sides met; at least there was a prisoner swap, and yes, the Russians did speak about coming back with yet another vision of a ceasefire.

The doubters will not see the silver lining. They will note that faking progress or willingness to negotiate on anything is the Russian way. They will note that the Russian government has never kept its word on anything since… well, since forever. They will note that Trump somehow still thinks he can logically negotiate with Putin.

And they will note the never-ending targeting of civilians by Russian drones, ballistic missiles, Shaheds and glide bombs with no apologies given. In fact, on May 19, Russia targeted Ukraine with a record number of at least 273 drones--the largest such attack since the 2022 invasion, according to the BBC.

At any rate, readers of this blog will know where I stand.

That said, what cannot be denied is that despite sporadic bright spots, Ukraine is losing ground. Russia keeps following the glide-bomb positions and then shove forward waves of Russian conscripts who attempt to blitz hundreds of meters (or far, far less) to then dig in and hold under relentless Ukrainian drone attacks.

Said drone defenses have indeed prevented (and hopefully will continue to prevent) a real Russian breakthrough. But the never-ending weight of the Russian Army is indeed never-ending. Especially in the face of weapons and ammunition shortages that prevent proper training of new soldiers and proper reinforcements.

The sharpest of eyes can see this below, as noticeable is that while Kupiansk is still holding, Russia is making gains further south toward Borova. Worse, while Pokrovsk—a key hub in the supply lines for anything north of that sector—his holding fast, just north of there the key supply route has effectively been cut. True, the drone wars and constant Russian pressure have long since disrupted said routes, but make no mistake that the actual physical gains by Russia at this point is an extremely disturbing development, which has taken place over the past month.

The Kupiansk-Borova sector as of March 12:

Kupiansk-Borova as of May 18:

Pokrovsk as of March 12:

Pokrovsk as of May 18:

The Ukrainian Pokrovsk supply lines now breached:

This also comes on the back of repeated US intel that Russia is building up for a new offensive (and this should not be confused with the buildup along the border of Finland). Here is just one more link reporting that statement: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/05/15/7512365/

And although it’s early, a Russian push at Sumy has restarted and it appears to be ongoing. Worse, there are bloggers indicating that Russia has pushed back hard in Pokrovsk and lines in the area are near collapse.

Remember, Russia is a blunt-force nation. Forget the supposed three-dimensional chess. Russia does not bluff.

And this bodes well for no one.

Now let’s turn to CEE.

Bulgaria

Bulgaria has quite often featured in The Corners’ crime and spy briefs, but we are going to keep it short this time around, featuring it primarily as yes, there was a grade-A meth lab bust there in late April in Emona on the Black Sea. Noteworthy is that two Polish nationals were implicated as having cooperated with the lab.

Now why is this important? More on that later, but the lab was noted as effectively state of the art and the high output of amphetamine product (up to 100 liters of mephedrone) a day—or approximately 150 kilograms of amphetamines) was… bound for the Polish market.

Which we will highlight shortly.

Both Poles, middle-aged guys, one of whom was a fugitive, were arrested.

Which, nationalities aside, is a good thing.

The Czech Republic

When it comes to the Czech Republic and Ukraine, the Czechs under the guidance of Prime Minister Peter Pavel just keep coming through. From sourcing shells (when it seemed like the rest of the EU was simply incompetent) to calling out Russia (as one of the few countries that does not share a border with Russia to do so), the Czechs have remained steadfast.

Now a Czech company, LPP Holding, has come up with an AI-powered drone that will simply be immune to Russian jamming. True, the Ukrainians have themselves done wonders with fiber-optics—and drone production in general—but this advance is no joke. And, according to Czech news services… said drones have already been put to use.

Estonia/Lithuania/the Baltics

The well-aware out there have often wondered aloud just how Russia’s oil industry continues to rake it in. The answer is a shadow fleet that often flies under the flag of Malta—but sometimes it flies under no flag at all. Only days ago this led to a highly dangerous conflict with the Estonian navy attempting to halt the progress of a tanker flying no flag with no apparent paperwork or… insurance.

And considering the rickety reputation of such oil tankers, this is a worry.

But if this were not already plenty of risk, a Russian fighter appeared on the scene to support said tanker—even though this was a violation of NATO airspace.

Said Russian warplane was then intercepted by NATO planes, apparently with this including at least one Polish fighter.

In the end, the ship was escorted to Russian waters. But the lesson learned is that 1) Russia, which may have stated that a fighter was sent to “check out the situation” 2) the risk of shooting even in the air is higher than ever and 3) Russia is beginning to call the actions of NATO a Western “blockade.”

The EU has reportedly responded with new sanctions that will put 149 “black fleet” boats on sanctions lists. Which should have happened sooner.

People are growing numb. Now is not the time to grow numb.

Kosovo

With the ceasefire failure still fresh in the press, bubbling threateningly under the radar remains Kosovo.

Yes, Kosovo. And Serbia.

At this point the knee-jerk reaction is to sharply criticize the Serbs. After all, that is what you do. And the Serbian government under long-time power tripper President Aleksandar Vucic continues to support Russia, essentially pal-around with Putin and quietly also support Bosnian Serb/Republika Srpka President and sanctioned troublemaker to the nth power Milorad Dodik.

That said, the… now former prime minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti (who resigned on April 15 of this year) also remains a factor.

As in a fellow troublemaker to the  nth power.

Serb critics may not like this—and no, Serbia and Vucic have hardly behaved as angels over the past few years—but the ability of Kurti to both cry foul and also do literally anything in his power to provoke Kosovo Serbs in North Kosovo (and thus Vucic and Vucic supporter), as well as even the EU, is something of legend.

For those who have not followed the plot, Serbia and Kosovo almost came to blows (repeatedly) on the tail-end of the COVID years, with this continuing against the back drop of the war in Ukraine and both the EU and the US desperate to calm relations in order to prevent the spectre of two hot conflicts on the fringes of Europe at the same time.

And for the most part EU and US efforts have worked. While most have doubted Vucic’s sincerity (and his ability to speak diplomatically to EU officials while going well-beyond hawkish in Serbian is infamous), Western officials have often been exasperated with Kurti’s absolute refusal to negotiate on previously agreed topics—with this primarily being the signed and stamped agreement to create a “municipality of independent Serb districts” in Northern Kosovo.

Now it is true that Kurti himself has often found himself in a box, as memories of Serb aggression have not exactly vanished over time. That said, turning a boycotted vote into essentially a sham vote that he refused to run a second time (which resulted in Kosovo Albanian mayors in charge of ethnic Serb districts); backing heavy-handed local police enforcement by predominantly Kosovo-Albanian police (although to be fair, once ethnic Serb police and other municipal officials walked off the job it became, supposedly, a local act of treason to come back) and now we have the latest raid: for reasons not fully understood, the Zubin Potok waterworks were raided and shut down, which basically cost scores of persons their jobs and allegedly (and not surprisingly) disrupted the flow of treated water to ethnic Serbs and Albanians alike.

Likewise, a second water company ay have also been raided and still more ethnic Serb town facilities were also shut down (i.e. sports halls).

And what is the reasoning behind such raids? Were ethnic-Serb rebels congregating on basketball courts? In the swimming pools?

At the waterworks?

Some believe Kurti is simply attempting to rile up the Serbs once again (and it is true, they do tend to rile up pretty good). At any rate, the EU (which does not rile up particularly well) has come out (again) with a statement for Kosovo to de-escalate.

So did the US, by the way.

Again.

Montenegro/Czech Republic

It was tempting to put this in the Montenegro box… which is what Yours Truly did, as action deserves rewards. And as Montenegro has now frozen the assets for former Prague Motol University Hospital Director Pavel B., due to an EU corruption investigation…

Way to go Montenegro!

This story comes with a few side notes. First, this was reported by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, which is somehow still in business despite Trump cuts (yay!). Second said corruption investigation is coming at the behest of the European Public Prosecutor’s office (EPPO), and note that EPPO is getting sharper and sharper teeth under the guidance of European Chief Prosecutor Laura Kovesi.

Who is tough. Really tough. Ask Romanians just how tough.

Finally, what kind of assets did Pavel B. have anyway? Well, he had/has a villa in Montenegro, and he is one of 18 charged with fraud involving EU subsidies, along with a second director Miloslav L.

Finally, note that Montenegro is not even in the EU. But EPPO is working with them anyway.

This should make quite a few regional and semi-regional villains a bit nervous.

Really it should.

Poland

The news of the day (specifically of today, May 19, 2025) is that, as predicted, the Polish presidential elections will go to a second round. Somewhat not as predicted (at least it didn’t seem this way a few weeks ago) is just how close this race has become, with both election “winner,” current KO-backed Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaszkowski and populist/Law-and-Justice (PiS) backed Karol Nawrocki both coming in with an estimated 30 percent of the vote.

As of Sunday night.

Yet official results with 99 percent of the vote confirmed slightly differed, with Trzaszkowski getting 31.2 percent of the vote to Nawrocki’s 29.7 percent. This was followed by Slawomir Mentzen with 14.9 percent.

This sets up Traszkowski and Nawrocki for a second round—and a Trzaszkowski win is by no means guaranteed, as many of the “leaders” among the lesser known candidates, such as Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun are likely to see their support funnel in behind Nawrocki.

For those not in the know, Mentzen is considered far-right who can rightly be called an EU sceptic. Braun is known for his fire-extinguisher anti-Jewish episode, which he actually used said equipment on… Hanukkah candles.

In fact, the second round harps back to past PiS party victories in which the liberal, EU-favoring part of Poland was shocked by the anti-PO attitudes of the provinces.

Let’s just say it doesn’t look good for Trzaszkowski.

Now it pays to keep in mind that the non-Trzaszkowski side of the equation is hardly pro-Ukraine. While this does not mean pro-Russian, it does make you wonder. Especially, when recent investigations have concluded that a fire that burned Warsaw’s largest shopping center, Marywilska 44, was actually arson—and that it was caused by Russian GRU.

And while this may have been the most eye-catching act of sabotage, there have been other acts of arson, and actors for Russian GRU were also arrested last year, following attempts to photographs Polish rail hubs.

Poland has since ordered the Russian consulate in Krakow closed—and this follows the kicking out of staff from the Poznan consulate, also due to the fire and alleged Russian cyberattacks.

Combine this with a long list of sabotage attempts, exploding ammo warehouses (in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria), attempted assassinations (in Germany) and Polish-Russian history, voters might need to have a think about this.

In the meantime, a byproduct of anti-racketeering law (ironically, first in Russia), as well as instability in the East has been a constant migration of true gangster-types from Russia, the ‘Stans and Georgia.

Most recently of note was the arrest of an alleged thief-in-law/vor v zakone near Minsk Mazowieckie. Police charged said, unnamed vor for having in his possession illegal weapons and ammunition, and, according to reports from the Polish media and Radio RMF, the raid in Nowy Konik, near Warsaw also resulted in the recovery of forged IDs. According to police, the key suspect was indeed a vor v zakone and a fugitive from Georgia, who may have been working as a hitman…

On a new assignment that was not revealed.

Police noted that close to 2,000 Georgians were arrested in Poland in 2024, with crimes including arms and narcotics trafficking and extortion.

Yet that was hardly the most shocking arrest of late, as an early April attack on the campus of Warsaw University saw a 22-year-old suspect attack and murder a middle-aged woman with an axe, while also severely injuring a security worker who attempted to come to her aid.

We’ll spare you the gore, but note that the suspect is from Gdynia, and police soon noted that he seemed to be under the influence of narcotics.

Think meth.

For this is the kind of sick violence that meth production brings, and in Poland meth production has become the rage.

If it is examples you need, just check out recent posts by The Corners, but Polish police, under direction of the Central Bureau of Investigation, have continued to bust meth labs, with a hooligan meth gang shut down at the end of April, resulting in the seizure of 100 kilograms of clofedrone, which was meant to produce PLN 4 mln worth of narcotics (think crystal meth) for Poland’s Carpathian hill country region.

And it appears a second bust at almost the same time resulted in the closure of yet another lab and the arrest of some 24 gangsters—and the seizure of nearly 120 kilograms of clofedrone in crystal form, as well as more than 600 liters of the substance in liquid form--and approximately 1,000 liters of chemical reagents used to produce 3-CMC. The value of the seized drugs on the black market was valued at almost PLN 6 million.

Detainees were charged with participation in an organized criminal group and production of significant amounts of drugs.

And if you’ve seen what meth does to small towns (for example in the US).

Or even if you’ve simply red Florida Man stories.

The trend makes you wonder.

And worry.

And fret.

Romania

But yes, there is a bit of good news this time around in that, unexpectedly, Romanian voters ushered in the pro-EU presidential candidate Nicusor Dan, with Dan tallying almost 54 percent to hard right-winger George Simon’s 46 percent.

This is a bigger deal than many might think. But rest assured that Brussels in watching the coming Polish runoff in both hope and fear (and trepidation).

Serbia

Back to RFE/RL, perhaps there has been some satisfaction with reports that Serbia has now arrested Goran V., the former head of the Republic Institute of the Protection of Cultural Monuments, who allegedly falsified paperwork that declared a destroyed building in Belgrade to be a landmark.

Which was to be replaced by a luxury residential complex under the… Trump brand.

There is a tremendous amount of irony here, as this building has been… influenced by the US before, as it was the actual destroyed by NATO airstrikes back during the war in Kosovo.

Now none other than Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, together with a United Arab Emirates sheik is planning to build with pre-sales of apartments slated to start about… now.

Of course, re-zoning of cultural monuments is the oldest trick in the book not only in SEE, but also in CEE, and again and again, bribe takers get arrested, as re-zoning of historical sites becomes fairly obvious fast. This time, however, there is a twist, as documents were supposedly forged so that the site would no longer have cultural significance.

Slovakia

Hey, maybe there are indeed funny games in Serbia, but… it’s still not in the EU. Slovakia, however—which like Serbia (and Hungary) has repeatedly expressed a government affinity toward Russia—is another matter.

Now an investigative report by vsquare.org indicates that Russian Mirelix—an alleged key supplier of electronics to the Russian FSB, set up in Slovakia after the beginning of the war, and it ahs operated and “exported” said electronics since. With these including parts that may have been used (or could be being used now) in Russian guided missiles.

It’s appalling. And intriguing.

And great work by the journalists at Vsquare.

Check out the story at Vsquare.org.

Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.

Photo of crystal meth courtesy of the CBSP.

Maps are courtesy of DeepStateUA.