Putin balks, Zelenskyy still ready for ceasefire talks, the war goes on...

So we were held in (slight) suspense.

For a time.

In other words, some might have entertained the fantasy that Russian President Vladimir Putin would attend peace talks in Turkey. After all, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had stated unequivocally that he would wait for Putin in Turkey, and even US President Donald Trump stated that he would attend if Putin would...

But alas, no deal, with the political news site Politico reporting most convincingly late Wednesday, May 14, that Putin's attendance was off the table.

Which means that three years out there truly is no end in sight. Which means that possibly the EU will finally unite (apart from a couple of renegade countries), and that even harder-hitting sanctions will be put in place.

But to put it mildly, recent coverage of the war in Ukraine by both the news media and bloggers of all stripe has been a rollercoaster of ups and downs that—while troubling in content—has been downright confusing when it comes to message and outlook.

On the one hand Ukraine has been losing land (despite gains at Pokrovsk, Toretsk and decisive local battles that have often annihilated Russian meat waves (sometimes on quads and motorcycles) down to the last man. On the other hand, the US-Donald Trump cease fire has appeared to have gone nowhere, with deadly Russian drone strikes continuing across Ukraine, and with these also hitting civilian targets on a daily basis.

These have been countered by allegedly effective mass Ukrainian long-distance drone strikes, and the worry—if not absolute likelihood—is that  now that Ukraine is drying out and heading lowly into the summer the war will again rage as hot as ever.

Then there are the sanctions--the endless rounds of sanctions. In fact, once you get to round 15 you do have to ask yourself whether early sanctions (perhaps rounds one through 10) actually had teeth. (And even today sanctions refer to "most" iron and steel products and imports, but aluminium imports, for example, while sanctioned, remain largely unaffected for the remainder of this year to allow the EU to adapt).

And in the midst of it, Zelenskyy has remained remarkably dogged. He rightly called Putin’s most recent bluff to “negotiate” in Turkey and said… “Sure. No prob.” As long as Putin actually journeys to Turkey himself in order to actually negotiate. Which the latter simply does not seem inclined to do. At all.

In short, much was being made of said meeting—and there were plenty of rumours that the conversations on the back channel could well bring a sea-change to the war.

Which could still happen--the day is not over yet, and Zelenskyy remains poised in Turkey--but for the moment the end of the war appears to be pure fantasy. And even European leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, tend to agree, with that leader putting it simply and stating that Putin is only buying time.

But don’t take my word for it. Through The Corners network, we reached out to players on the ground, including a long-term US NGO executive who recently returned from Ukraine and meetings across the country with civilian leaders, emergency services personnel and military officers. AspenAid’s Mike Houlehan, and also a foreign-national serving in the Ukrainian military who will be referred to simply as “X.”

AspenAid has long focused on first-responder support, with this including training and even major fire and rescue tools/equipment. Over the next few posts, I’ll highlight various topics derived from these interviews and others, but the reality on the ground comes as a first priority.

[Note that the relevant conversations took place separately, and that I am mixing and matching comments for readability and logic.]

On the cease fire:

Houlehan: “When you say we were supposed to  have a cease fire, you are already on the wrong track. Vladimir Putin has no interest in a cease fire. He’s playing Trump like a fiddle, and everyone seems to know it but Trump.

“In fact, I was worried that I’d be treated poorly at the border, but no, people are cool. They said: ‘No, no. You are American, but we know it’s not you.

“More than that--everybody who has ever been in this part of the world knows Putin despises Trump. Everyone knows this yet he does not seem to know it. And then you see the mistakes made. People wonder aloud about Steven Witkoff—a real estate broker—who in his last meeting with Russian representatives used Kremlin interpreters.

“It’s amateur. It’s not professional. It’s super dangerous.

X: “First, we have to take a realistic view. Russia has run out of money. Russia is running out of men. And China owns Russia.

“What this means is that Russia cannot simply win this war—but the US can undermine the Ukrainian effort to the point that Ukraine can still lose.

“If we take a look at the most recent ‘cease fire’ that Putting wanted—this three-day cease fire [that was to coincide with the parade in Moscow]. What is the purpose? We have had cease fire talks [and this has done nothing to stop the fighting]. The answer [was] quite clear. On the front Russia has thrown everything into battles. You will see suddenly all out and suicidal attacks. And yes, when they do this we simply mow down the Russians.

The Corners: “I saw recently the reports of mass attacks by Russians on motorbikes—there was one with maybe a couple of hundred Russians, and they were all droned. All killed.”

X: “Yes. Motorcycles, quads. Tanks. Russia has been throwing everything into battles to gain ground. They are making small gains, but the point is that they are running out of men. The Russians push and push and then suddenly they cannot go forward because they are depleted. This is what they are doing now. The three-day cease fire was a point in their schedule where they were pushing as hard as they can, and they will be weak. They will not be able to hold their gains, and in fact, at that point our guys can push back and take significant ground. Possibly, we can have a true breakthrough—this is very realistic.

“So what does Putin do? He puts the three-day ceasefire on the schedule, brings it up with Trump. So this puts Zelenskyy’s back against the wall. We know what Putin is doing. This was the moment to  push back, Putin [wanted] everything frozen, and Trump behind him—and if Zelenskyy refused to play this very obvious game, he would be vilified as not wanting peace.

“This is the real story.”

On Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy:

Houlehan: “I was asked all the time about the Trump. It’s very interesting when you are asked your opinion, and you have to give thought to your answers--and you have to be clear and sensible. The first is: how did Trump get elected? Throw out the foreign policy stuff—it’s irrelevant. It’s always been kind of the same. Politics in reality go back to local issues. So in essence, it wasn’t Republican or Democrat with regard to foreign policy, but local issues—illegal immigration, inflation […] and people said ‘enough.’ That’s why Trump got elected.

“But prior to this US politics ended at the border. We were more or less united with regard to international politics, but that’s what has changed. If you were in the US nobody knew what was going on back in 2014. But in 2022 Ukraine was probably the only unifying thing in the US—Ukraine. But [partisan politics played their roles]. Democrats decided that anything Trump did would be attacked. And the Republicans turned it around and anything Biden did was wrong—and suddenly we had division. And now anything Biden has touched (is being reversed).

“[I don’t buy into the conspiracy] of Trump being a super agent—that kind of thing. He is simply reversing everything Biden did. But even that is not simple.

“Remember that Ukrainians took 83 percent of the territory lost back. Not 8 percent, but 83 percent. And the US wasn’t really behind the Ukrainians back then, but the Ukrainians did it. Now to Trump’s credit, they did arm the Ukrainians with Javelins, and they set up electronic warfare bases, and  give Trump credit for opposing Nordstream. It’s still killing the Russians.

“The distrust with the US in fact first came under Biden. But the real thing is to just show up. Truth is the first thing that goes in war. The only thing you can do now is just show up. The other side that the Ukrainians have made clear to us is ‘don’t run away.’

“This brings me to Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy is considered by many sides as part of the problem, but he did not run away. That is the most important thing. He would have been fragged in the back a long time ago otherwise. He walked the street just last week—and he really does do this kind of thing. Is he super popular? No. A lot of people are pissed off at him. But even the Klitschkos [Ed. Note—he is referring to current Mayor of Kiev Vitali Klitschko and his brother Wladimir] have not turned on him. Yes, they are the opposition, and they will run against him, but they have not turned on him.

“There are arguments about Zelenskyy and martial law, but even the Klitschkos have said that they can’t have fair elections now so they know.

“What people in the West do not understand is that the election question appeared first back in 2014. The Ukrainian used the example of Winston Churchill and the British because Winston would not have lasted if there had been elections during World War II. And the Klitschkos themselves note the reasoning for not having presidential elections during an all-out war, and they will tell you that Ukraine has to protect its democracy

X: “The fact is that Zelenskyy is a very decent man. We see what is in the press, and it is not correct.”

The Corners: “To play the devil’s advocate, if you were Zelenskyy, would you not want to have money put away for you and your family? He personally is at great risk.”

X: “Zelenskyy had money before any of this started. People forget he was already successful. But yes, he is in a very difficult spot now. But he is a decent man. If Ukrainians voted today and they could pick Zelenskyy and [Former Chief of Staff Gen. Valerii] Zhaluzny, then Zelenskyy and Zhaluzny would get the majority of votes.

On glide bombs:

Houlehan: “Russia has upped the ante—and the media is not reporting this. When I was just there we had 18 hours of shaheds, drones, missiles and then glide bombs—we lost a truck. Think explosions midnight Saturday to mid-evening the next day. That was leading into the victory week.

[Ed. Note—during a follow-up call air raid warnings could be heard on the interviewee’s telephone, noting missiles heading for Kyiv, and over the night of May 13-14 four ballistic missiles and some 145 drones hit Ukrainian cities.

[Also note that the photo shown is the truck that was destroyed, and this was some 300 meters from glide-bomb strike.]

“What is also noted is that the Europeans are showing up. I was in a convoy of about 40 Swedish combat vehicles. You don’t hear about Swedish, Finnish ones. But when we talk about US supplies, the Patriot batteries are not there. The US does not send F-16s. We are in year three and Odessa cannot defend its airspace. This is critical.”

X: “The glide bombs are still a huge issue.”

The Corners: We have also heard about Ukrainian technological innovation that has slowed down Russia. I’m specifically thinking about glide bombs in that apparently now managed to interfere with Russian targeting—and this is supposedly limiting the tactic of using glide bombs to hit Ukrainian positions and then hitting the positions with meat waves.

X: Like I said, Russia is running out of men. They are trying to make their big push now, but what has also gone unnoticed are Ukrainian successes, such as Pokrovsk. But the glide bombs don’t have to be accurate. And if they hit anywhere near, they annihilate positions, and even if you are not in the blast zone, the concussion leaves you useless for days. I personally had to deal with this about 10 days ago. They are still a huge problem.”

On morale and the future…

Houlehan: What’s amazing is just how up to speed the Ukrainians re on these topics. First they tell you as an American volunteering there that we know it’s not you. Thank you for just showing up. But the overall morale is stressed and exhausted—the number one issue being weapons.

“They have plenty of people left, but they have a screwed up conscription and mobilization system. They do have thugs that grab people off the street—that’s coming from the administration, and that’s a mistake. They could have followed the Vietnam model the US used, which was, yes, if you choose to sit out or flee to Canada, that will not go unpunished, but the US was not grabbing people off the street and out of discos to send them to the front line.

“There actually are still a lot of volunteers, but the number one impediment is lack of weapons and rotations. The average age on the front is forty-two. They did move the conscription age lower, but for young men the  factor is the rotation system. It looks like you have to go there and die instead of go in and have rotations out. If they would deal with that, it would be different.

“But if you criticize them for not sending young men to the front, you have to understand that they do not have even the luxury of having weapons and ammunition to train their young men. So they cannot afford to pull the experienced soldiers off of the front, as it is crazy to send thousands of untrained and inexperienced young men to replace them and hold the line without even adequate gear.

“But the morale is still strong. Strong but tired. But let me tell you, the Ukrainians will never, ever give in. They know what Russian is, what it would mean to surrender. It won’t happen. I also do not think that the young mean in Poland or abroad will be welcomed back after this is all over.

The Corners: If something like the “status quo” remains, how do you see the war playing out?

X: “The status quo would mean never-ending negotiations with Putin. But if we get into Trump lifting sanctions on Russia, Ukraine is in trouble. I am not surprised that the Trump administration has become frustrated with Russia, as you do not get a quick deal ever with Russia. That said, Ukraine could win the war if sanctions remain and if the US does not pull support.”

Preston Smith is a licensed investigator based in Gdansk, Poland. He can be reached at query@cddi.pl.

[Photo of destroyed vehicle, courtesy AspenAid.]